Gyory: Women asked the key questions at Hofstra debate

The best way to analyze Tuesday night’s presidential debate at Hofstra University is through the political equivalent of bifocals.

The near-sighted view was a rosy one for President Barack Obama.  Last night, Obama was clear, cogent and cutting in his ripostes.  Gov. Mitt Romney was on the defensive throughout the contest on issues ranging from whether his tax plan added up to his opposition to Planned Parenthood funding and the auto bailout, and at the close, his infamous “47 percent” pronouncements.

Moreover, Obama’s aggressive tactics forced several factual errors.  Romney said he opposed letting employers rather than female employees determine if contraception services will be covered by their health insurance, even though Romney had endorsed the Blunt amendment that would do just that.  Romney also incorrectly asserted that President Barack Obama had not called the Benghazi attack an act of terrorism from the Rose Garden, the day after the attack.

Both instant polls showed Obama winning the debate -- by 46-39 percent in the CNN poll of registered voters, and by 37-30 percent in the CBS poll of uncommitted voters.  So this was not the overwhelming victory Romney scored in the first match-up two weeks ago in Denver.  Obama bounced back -- in the CNN poll, 73 percent said Obama did better in last night’s debate than expected. But he did not close the deal.

Which brings us to the far-sighted view.  No one should doubt that America remains a center-right nation ideologically.  Gov. Romney passionately made his case for lower taxes, reduced deficits and less regulation in the first debate, and he doggedly stuck to that in the second debate.  The strong support registered for Romney in the polls after Denver and on his handling of the economy after Hofstra, is a significant factor.  

Swing voters like Romney’s newly painted centrist hue, but they must still wonder whether the centerpiece of his program – the tax cut – is a Trojan horse for the middle class, looking like a gift, but booby-trapped with steep losses on the tax deductions that are so key to sustaining a middle-class lifestyle, particularly in high-tax, high-cost-of-living states like New York. Last night, the president skillfully underscored those doubts.

On the other hand, Obama while scrappy, did not address the lingering doubt blocking his re-election.  Will a second Obama administration overcome the dysfunction in Congress from the past two years?  It's hard to see how swing voters will side with Obama unless he advances a plan for breaking the gridlock.

We can also sense who will decide this election.  The ultimate swing voters are married suburban women and single women with less than a college education.  These two subsets of the female majority -- in 2008, women cast 53 percent of the vote, with 11.9 million more women voting than men -- will determine whether a gender gap emerges to re-elect Obama, or whether Romney shaves Obama’s edge enough to prevail.

So it was appropriate that the three seminal questions were posed by women Tuesday night, and all were directed to Romney. The first was how deductions so dear to the middle class would fare under his tax plan. The second was how Romney’s administration would differ from what the questioner described as the debacle of George W. Bush’s presidency.  And, the third, on how immigrants who are already in America should be treated.

The next debate will focus on foreign policy, which is not likely to answer those questions moving swing voters.  Both Romney and Obama will likely struggle down the stretch, trying to find the feminine mystique unlocking that precious core of truly undecided voters.     

Bruce N. Gyory is a consultant with Corning Place Communications and an adjunct professor of political science at the University at Albany.