Editorial: Severe weather gives a taste of a warmer planet
Corn plants dry in a drought-stricken farm field near Shawneetown, Illinois. The corn and soybean belt in the middle of the nation is experiencing one of the worst droughts in more than five decades. (July 16, 2012) Credit: Getty Images
Despite violent storms in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, most of America is wilting in the grip of a historic drought. Crops are being decimated and livestock slaughtered for want of feed. Nearly a third of U.S. counties have been designated disaster areas.
So is this another sign of global warming? That's far from certain. But it is a taste -- a bitter taste -- of what a warmer planet will be like. This year's U.S. drought losses are expected to exceed $12 billion, and the government says the heat and dry weather will push up food prices 3 to 4 percent next year.
There are probably more such droughts in our future, thanks to climate change. This one, meanwhile, is a stark reminder that we have to do something to avoid the risk of catastrophic events down the road. Global warming probably won't be all bad, but there's a hard-to-quantify risk that it will be truly devastating. That's an outcome we can avoid if we approach the warming of the planet the same way we approach other national security threats. We spend on defense to minimize the risk of some devastating attack, and we'll have to spend on climate change for similar reasons. Think of this money as an insurance premium.
Climate change is a tough problem, but the record temperatures of recent years, as well as the increased frequency of droughts, wildfires and violent storms, are signs that this is a long-term trend. Scientists overwhelmingly agree that human activity is warming the planet. But there's no way to know for sure how severe the consequences of global warming will be -- and the worst consequences are many years away. Making a real dent in our carbon output, moreover, will require sacrifice and unprecedented international cooperation. In affluent nations such as ours, citizens enjoy their energy-intensive lifestyle, and fossil-fuel producers are politically powerful. Developing nations such as China, meanwhile, wonder why they should limit their growing thirst for fossil fuel when we won't limit ours.
Yet by doing nothing, the human race is taking a gigantic risk. Serious warming could radically alter ecosystems, making major storms more frequent and causing shortages of food and water. Inundated coastlines and spreading deserts could prompt large-scale migrations, leading to political instability and wars. The chance of such terrible events should spur us to action. Just as homeowners pay for insurance against the chance their homes will burn to the ground, the world's nations should be willing to invest now in steps to reduce the potentially catastrophic threat of global warming. We start by acting to rein in our use of carbon-based fuels and investing in alternatives, even as we work to accommodate the climate changes it's already too late to head off.
Taking such measures will be costly, but not taking them will be costly too. A New York State task force predicts that in 70 years global warming could raise the sea level around Long Island by 1 or 2 feet. If the world's land-based ice melts faster than expected, the rise could exceed 5 feet, putting a lot of the priciest parts of Nassau and Suffolk counties under water.
Higher taxes on carbon-based fuels would be the most efficient way of reducing their use and stimulating alternatives. Nature may be already hitting the extraction industries with its own tax. As water supplies dwindle in drought areas, such as Texas, water use is being restricted. And huge amounts of water are needed to get oil and gas from the ground. In the end, fossil fuels aren't as cheap as they look because their current prices place no value on the environmental harm they cause. Pricing in this harm should stimulate markets to produce more efficient cars, and prompt utilities such as the Long Island Power Authority to use more clean, alternative energy sources.
This year's drought is a bad one. It should be a reminder that these changing patterns will have severe impacts on our economy, environment, health and even national security. So we need to get moving at last on making smart decisions on climate change.
