All eyes are on Long Island, so please vote

The whole partisan political world may be watching Long Island on Tuesday. Let your vote help send a message; polls are open from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m.

Observers and political professionals will be on the lookout for “bellwether” races both on and off the Island. One of them, most obviously, will be the Suffolk County executive contest between Democrat David Calone and Republican Edward Romaine following 12 years of Democratic control under three-term incumbent Steve Bellone. If Romaine wins, the GOP will have captured all top Long Island elected offices. The same test of strength for the regional “red wave” of the last two elections also extends downward, to the Suffolk County legislature, where Republicans have 11 of 18 seats, one shy of a supermajority. If Calone wins, it will mark the braking of a trend and a bright spot for local Democrats.

In Nassau County, too, Republicans need a one-seat gain to get a legislative supermajority, which would mean the dominant party would not have to negotiate with Democrats to get the votes it needs to do routine bonding, the only clout the minority faction has right now. It would mirror a level of control Democrats have in both houses of the State Legislature.

The fate of local races could signal what’s to come next year. Momentum for either party now has implications for the Island’s four congressional districts. And these seats, as everyone learned last year, can make all the difference in shaping a party majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.

So Tuesday’s results in Long Beach, from its city council to the county's 4th Legislative District, will be widely watched for what they may portend for next year’s congressional race for the seat now held by Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito. Another example: the town board and supervisor results in North Hempstead, and their implications next year for the CD3 seat now held by indicted Rep. George Santos.

But saying one election race offers a “bellwether” even in the next district is highly speculative. For one thing, town and legislative races can hinge, as they’re supposed to, on who voters think will address local problems, not on global or partisan world views. Even within the same party, the effectiveness of individual candidacies and campaigns can differ from one neighborhood to another. In Congress, district lines may change significantly next year, making predictions extra hazardous.

Turnout in a presidential election surpasses that of so-called off-years such as this one, which is why Democratic-dominated state lawmakers passed a bill awaiting a decision by Gov. Kathy Hochul that would move off-year elections to presidential or gubernatorial years, a perceived benefit for Democrats.

With this much at stake both in terms of this year's results and next year's trends, it's important that your voice is heard. Please vote.