Big budget bill may prove to be a big boondoggle

The most glaring fiscal fact about the massive budget bill signed by President Donald Trump on the Fourth of July is that it commits the U.S. to ballooning its debt and deficits in the coming years. Filled with tax giveaways and excessive spending, it shatters any pretense to "fiscal conservatism" by the Republican congressional majorities that rushed its passage at Trump’s demand.

According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, deficits over the 2025-34 period would increase by $3.4 trillion from CBO’s January baseline projections. The economically libertarian Cato Institute, which advocates for smaller government, calls the megabill a "fiscal disaster" that could cost trillions more than that.

The Senate vote was a 50-50 tie that Vice President JD Vance was forced to break to salvage the legislation. And the process known as reconciliation, to avoid a filibuster, resulted in stuffing the bill with a lot of pork to buy votes. Few had read the bill's language; its accounting was full of gimmicks. 

The process had a particular shoddiness. The claim by Trump’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency that it carved $60 billion out of government operations was never verified. One $8 million cut was first advertised as $8 billion, a ludicrous error. How many others went uncorrected?

Major spending reductions in Medicaid included in the bill appear aimed strictly to cushion Republicans from the backlash. Those cuts are enacted but delayed for two years, thus forfeiting $176 billion in projected savings. Meanwhile, popular tax cuts — such as on overtime and tip income — take effect for the 2025 tax year. That's just in time for the 2026 midterms.

Despite all the prior talk of "efficiency," room was made in this budget for what may prove to be a big, beautiful boondoggle. Trump’s Department of Defense is committed to a new missile defense system called the "Golden Dome," projected to cost $175 billion. It's fair to doubt its viability as well as its necessity.

Without improved congressional scrutiny, the public cannot be sure how much waste, fraud and abuse may exist at the Pentagon already. Funding for defense will significantly rise. There’s also $170 billion for immigration and border enforcement, likely making ICE the largest federal law enforcement organization. That includes $45 billion for new detention centers.

It’s hard to believe all that spending is necessary — and dubious to assume that mass deportations will help our economy. Instead, such plans could reduce the economic growth needed to offset the debt. 

Now that it's fresh, and can be viewed at arm’s length, this sweeping new measure looks very much like a hurried blend of random austerity, in some aspects, and government extravagance in others. No wonder it polls poorly. Congress had better be ready to make repairs in the next few years as the flaws reveal themselves.