Congress must avoid a fiscal shutdown

A grating but familiar exercise approaches this month in Washington as the House and Senate reconvene at the Capitol.

The federal fiscal year ends in less than three weeks. President Joe Biden, Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have declared their intent to sign off on a monthslong funding measure — a continuing resolution — just to keep government offices running. That's a stopgap before a wider agreement on an annual budget can be reached in the subsequent weeks.

In a harshly divided Congress, this Oct. 1 deadline brings extra tension. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who’s key to the process, faces health issues. So does Rep. Steve Scalise, a member of McCarthy’s majority, which is already too slim for the GOP's comfort. Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s limited capacities have inspired concern for some time. All this underscores the human unpredictability of the process.

Collective common sense should make the pressing task of passing a continuing resolution simple — in theory. But this is the U.S. Congress, 2023 version, where forces of obstruction continually lurk. Issues that require deeper resolutions can intrude.

A hard-edge faction of McCarthy’s conference seems just fine with shutting down government if it doesn't get concessions. The tactic is as risky as it is nasty. Former President Donald Trump provoked the last shutdown when he fought with two GOP-controlled chambers over $5.7 billion for his border “wall” project. Polls at the time showed the shutdown, and the “wall,” to be unpopular. Trump had to cave.

Particular projects aside, many threads feed into the overall funding tangle that comes into play in different measures.

SENATE STRATEGY

The current assumption is that Schumer's majority, in tandem with Republicans, expects to spend most of the month on the basic funding bill and confirming Biden’s nominees. That means bigger issues are likely to be put off, including drug price controls, rail safety and other fiscal issues. Discussions on regulating artificial intelligence might also wait a bit. Immigration? Don't hold your breath.

With the White House and the Senate majority in Democratic hands, House Republicans seek to leverage their dissent, prodded by the far-right Freedom Caucus. Previously, the GOP majority approved provisions blocking abortion health coverage, transgender care and diversity initiatives for a July defense package, all of which were rejected by the Senate. But the caucus is still loaded for bear on what it calls a “woke military.” In related high jinks, Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville has unilaterally held up about 300 military promotions over abortion, including confirmation of a new Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman. Plausibly, the Pentagon says he's jeopardizing national security.

A bigger and more important divide could skew negotiations. The White House wants a “supplemental” bill with more than $13 billion in military aid and $7.3 billion in other assistance for Ukraine. Because some House Republicans have been souring on Ukraine support, Biden has been widely reported to have floated the strategy of linking it to national disaster aid, for recent climate catastrophes such as in Vermont, Florida and Hawaii.

This coupling is an unsustainable idea. Even Republican Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, a vocal Ukraine supporter, said: “No matter how anybody feels about Ukraine funding, those two things should never be one for the other." He made the remarks as Hurricane Idalia hit his state Aug. 30, adding: “When it comes to taking care of Americans in harm, that should be priority.” Rubio makes a valid point.

GOP'S UKRAINE SPLIT

What's more, there is tension between Senate and House Republicans over Ukraine funding. McConnell said Wednesday “it is certainly not the time to go wobbly." But the Freedom Caucus, which could hold McCarthy’s speakership in its hands, includes among its demands refusing any "blank check for Ukraine."

Regular appropriations legislation also must be crafted. When McCarthy in June finally broke a standoff and agreed to suspend the nation’s debt ceiling into 2025, the pact included spending caps. In fiscal 2024, the debt legislation limits military spending to $886 billion and nonmilitary discretionary spending to $704 billion. In fiscal year 2025, the numbers would rise to $895 billion and $711 billion.

But those totals are maximums, not minimums, House Republicans say. Their own spending bills would slash expenditures below the top levels.

Politically, even the House's thus-far misguided goal of impeaching Biden could affect budgets — if only to poison all bipartisan negotiations. The same goes for strident GOP calls to stem "unprecedented weaponization of the Justice Department and FBI" and include a sweeping GOP border bill that has stalled in the Senate.

No matter what, the current influx of migrants and asylum-seekers requires increased federal attention sooner rather than later — and could surely complicate spending talks.

Shutdown threats create a game of budgetary chicken. Whether Biden and the Congress as a whole ignore the threat, or eagerly cave in, the mood is set for the possibility of further dysfunction. But in a world where anything can be put on the table at any point, these are the cards that are dealt. Hopefully, the more reliable legislators will play their hands correctly and resist the fiscal hostage-takers.