Small groups, big danger

Anthony Fauci's virtual appearance at Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo's COVID-19 news conference Monday was more than surprising.

It was a warning.

It was a warning because the nation's top infectious disease expert and native New Yorker lauded by Cuomo as "America's doctor" was there to talk about the potential "dark time" ahead. The effect of an expected Thanksgiving surge in infections plus the December holiday season would be peaks "superimposed on each other," Fauci said. "You have a surge upon a surge."

He added that things could "really get bad" in the middle of January.

That could mean crowded hospitals, further business restrictions, and more sorrow. And a major cause for that surge, cited by both Fauci and Cuomo, is indoor gatherings of family and friends.

Cuomo said Monday that over 70% of the virus spread is estimated to be coming from "small gatherings." In Nassau County, tracers are largely finding that's the reason for the spread. In Suffolk, during the first few weeks of November, the second-most common setting where people reported being exposed was at small gatherings such as social events and family celebrations, according to the Department of Health Services.

Epidemiologists say the origin of a spread can be difficult to determine when the virus is widespread within the community, but top leadership in New York is united in identifying the blinking danger of these small gatherings. "I cannot stress enough the dangers posed by small indoor gatherings," Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone said in a Monday statement. "If we don't change our behaviors quickly our hospital system will be at risk of being overwhelmed."

This should not be an issue where behaviors are determined by partisan identity. The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday released December guidelines for how to control the pandemic, including admonitions on "avoiding nonessential indoor spaces and crowded outdoor settings." That also included indoor dining, which on Monday Cuomo threatened to further restrict in the coming days: "Indoor venues, where distancing is not maintained and consistent use of face masks is not possible … have been identified as particularly high-risk scenarios."

Monday's message was the direct opposite of the stupid defiance by the operators of a Staten Island bar who were determined to jam crowds into the establishment. When confronted by New York City sheriffs on Saturday, Danny Presti of Mac’s Public House is alleged to have rammed his car into one of the deputy sheriffs, carrying him 300 feet and breaking both of his legs.

Certainly, small businesses need to be financially supported. But there’s no excuse for flouting the rules and endangering first responders and the public. Such behavior should not be given a nod of approval as some Republican elected officials on Staten Island have done in recent days. Taming this virus will not happen in a political divide.

Most indoor gatherings, without extraordinary precautions, will be a problem while we wait for a vaccine. We don’t want January to look like last spring.

— The editorial board