When considering the economy, voters should know that Congress has little sway over inflation but much on Social Security

To anyone hearing the cacophony of pleas and plans this election season, it might seem that a vote for the right House and Senate candidates would solve all the nation’s problems. And that a ballot cast for the wrong ones could send the nation down a path of pain and perdition.

In reality, many of the hottest issues of this national election will prove to be far beyond the short-term control of the electoral winners. Some problems are not national, nor significantly susceptible to the actions of Congress. Other issues are steered by Congress, but quite slowly — ships too big to quickly be turned toward the promised land, or run aground.

Some changes Republicans say they’ll make if they take the House and Senate gavels can’t be enacted without White House cooperation President Joe Biden won't give, as with abortion. And much of what the Democrats promise, and have been promising for two years, would require bigger margins than what they'll have even if they retain control of both houses.

So on exactly what issues will this national election matter, and how?

CONGRESS AND INFLATION

Recent polls show voters are most concerned about economic issues. Topping the list of worries is inflation, and that’s one predicament Congress, whichever party is in control, can’t meaningfully fix. 

Inflation is hitting many American wallets hard, with prices for food, fuel, energy, groceries, cars, electronics, and services skyrocketing. The affluent have the cash cushion to survive but their retirement funds have shrunk thanks to investor concerns about inflation. The primary way the government can help consumers — putting more money in pockets through gas tax suspensions or cash giveaways like student-loan relief — also increases inflation by putting more money in consumer pockets. 

The Federal Reserve, the nation's central bank, will likely act in much the same manner to control inflation whether Democrats or Republicans triumph Tuesday. And inflation is an international problem, dulling the effectiveness of American attempts to confront it.

That’s why while both parties are promising to tame inflation, neither has had much luck explaining how.

But one thing is clear: Democrats continue to support more and larger plays to get money to Americans, via spending on aid, than Republicans. That difference will be exacerbated if the nation plunges into a serious recession. And the every-five-years battle over subsidies for nutrition programs (and farmers) comes next year. Voters concerned about how such policies affect the national debt and inflation over the long haul would rightly consider that.

They should also consider Social Security and Medicare. Deficit spending has skyrocketed, largely because of the pandemic, and the dates loom when the Medicare trust fund (2028) and the Social Security trust fund (2034) are projected to run dry. Republican leaders in the House and Senate are again talking about raising eligibility ages for both programs, raising Medicare fees for retirees, means-testing recipients, and cutting benefits. These are misbegotten policies that would undermine two of our nation’s most successful, beloved, and necessary programs. Increasing payroll contributions, bringing in more legal immigrant workers to pay into the programs, and giving Medicare the broad ability to bargain on drug costs are much better options.

To be sure, harsh moves on Medicare and Social Security will be hard to get past Biden, but Republicans could weaponize the debt ceiling and government shutdowns if they take one or two branches, and they are going to have the expiration of former President Donald Trump’s tax cuts at the end of 2024 as a bargaining chip.

DIFFERENCES ON SALT

On Long Island, the biggest issue under this umbrella is the $10,000 deduction limit on state and local taxes, known as SALT. Republican leadership will fight the restoration of SALT, and blue-state Republicans have had zero success swaying them.

And speaking of taxes, there are the 87,000 IRS workers slotted to be hired as part of Biden’s misnamed Inflation Reduction Act. Many are being hired to audit high earners underpaying taxes, but the agency will lose 50,000-80,000 employees to retirement over the next five years, has millions of 2021 returns still unprocessed, and answered only 11% of phone calls in 2021. Republicans have rejected the idea with surprising intensity. But much of the issue is how the plan uses the expected new revenue: to further the Democrats’ climate-change initiatives. 

The environment, climate change, and the path away from fossil fuels are clear areas where party control matters. Republicans often fight the shift to renewable energy and tightened emission standards that Democrats mostly support.

The energy battleground brings us to the war between Russia and Ukraine. Our support of Ukraine has been expensive. Some Republicans and progressive Democrats have objected to it on both the economics and the merits, and aid to Ukraine may wane if Republicans have more say.

In truth, nearly all of the nation’s major issues, to be settled with any permanence, would have to be resolved on a bipartisan basis. On taxes, health care, immigration, climate, the social safety net, and monetary and fiscal policy, we’ve seen partisan policies erased by pendulum swings in party power again and again.

Regardless of who controls the House and Senate on Jan. 1, the nation is divided. The path to success for both political parties and the United States runs through leaders who can bring elected officials and the people together to support workable compromises.