Caution is needed in the conflict with Iran
A satellite image of Iran's underground nuclear enrichment site at Fordo taken Sunday after the U.S. airstrike. Credit: AP
The Trump administration opened the next chapter in our nation’s decades-old animosity with Iran over the weekend when U.S. forces attacked from the sky and by all accounts severely damaged three nuclear sites inside the Islamic Republic. Coming amid Israel’s stepped-up incursions which reportedly asserted strategic control of the skies there, the U.S. operation prompted President Donald Trump to call the nuclear sites "completely and totally obliterated."
But the attack’s true results — and their impact on Iran’s uranium enrichment and its future ability to arm weapons of mass destruction — are too unclear to assess. Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, couldn’t confirm the whereabouts of Iran’s stockpile of near-weapons-grade nuclear material. Whether or how much was moved to other protected locations anticipating the attack, as experts believe, is unknown. A lack of consistent and credible information over months and years about Iran's capabilities feeds a sense of our perilous position.
On Monday, the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar was targeted in a retaliatory missile attack from Iran. Qatar said it intercepted the long- and short-range missile launches; some sources said it was warned in advance, suggesting a minimalist gesture but with no clue of what's next. Israel keeps hitting symbolic, targeted locations inside Iran which has hit back with its missiles.
Where's this going? Trump announced Monday evening a 12-hour ceasefire between Israel and Iran, hours after Israel warned Tehran residents to evacuate. Where that leaves negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program is unknown. A new escalation and expansion of the conflict cannot be ruled out.
Even inside Trump’s often irascible political coalition, there is unusual disagreement over whether this fight is in U.S. interests, Israel’s, or both. In 2018, Trump called the Bush administration’s Iraq invasion "the worst single mistake" in U.S. history. For years, Trump has been selling promises to miraculously negotiate peace where there is war.
Trump never should have withdrawn the nation from the 2015 nuclear disarmament pact with Iran. And while the Saturday night mission involved no military losses, any shift toward "boots on the ground" must be avoided. Trump must disregard the hawks and prioritize a negotiated, diplomatic end to the hostilities. If Iran tries to choke off the Strait of Hormuz to its south — through which a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade is said to pass — the result could be a spike in oil prices, a blow to rival Saudi Arabia, and a destabilized global economy. Iran’s parliament has called for that closure.
If there is no lasting truce, it will become increasingly urgent that Trump act at least in the spirit of the Constitution and seek approval from Congress for any future military action. Americans, even within both major parties, are very divided. It should be up to our lawmakers, out in the open, to collectively decide if we are going to war again.
MEMBERS OF THE EDITORIAL BOARD are experienced journalists who offer reasoned opinions, based on facts, to encourage informed debate about the issues facing our community.
