Long Island's homegrown red wave

Even as the anticipated “red wave” fell far short of Republicans’ hopes elsewhere in the state and nation, a majority of Long Island voters on Tuesday sent a multifaceted message of defiance to even the most moderate of Democratic incumbents and challengers.

They spoke loudly, and in partisan fashion, extending what we saw Islandwide in local races a year ago.

It didn’t seem to matter in the local GOP rout that the new ability for state governments to bar abortion was a profoundly unpopular development to so many suburban women. Or that crime statistics on this side of the New York City line are relatively low.

One bright illustration of the local trend: Even as the environmental bond act proposal carried the day on the Island — against Conservative Party opposition — the most substantive environmental activist in the Assembly, Steve Englebright, a 30-year incumbent, appears to have lost to Ed Flood, a little-known Brookhaven Republican.

Regardless of the variation in their candidates’ credentials, the Republican surge extended on this occasion from Montauk to the Queens line and from top to bottom on the ballots in most contests. Along with Gov. Kathy Hochul, Sen. Chuck Schumer lost both counties quite decisively as did Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, a very bipartisan veteran from Nassau County, and Attorney General Tish James.

And yet those incumbent Democrats and their colleagues in both houses of the legislature in Albany were still chosen, by greater numbers in other regions, to retain all the major power centers of the state.

On the wider playing field, the Nassau County GOP’s effective role in conjunction with the national party in turning two Nassau-centered districts — to be vacated by Democratic Reps. Kathleen Rice and Tom Suozzi — has a huge national impact given slim majorities at the Capitol. That's two of the four House seats statewide that went from blue to red Tuesday.

ZELDIN FACTOR

Political credit for an explosion of red turnout on Long Island that boosted its usual share of the statewide total has to belong to Lee Zeldin of Shirley — who performed impressively far above early expectation and registration numbers. Zeldin’s emergence as the strongest-performing GOP candidate for governor since George Pataki unseated Mario Cuomo in 1994 gives him public standing to speak about the voter message of which Hochul and the other Democrats should be mindful as she commences her term as the first woman elected to the spot in New York. 

In his concession Wednesday, Zeldin said ballot results showed New Yorkers "are sick of the attacks on their wallets, their safety, their freedoms and the quality of their kids’ education.”

While criminal justice steps will continue to be debated in Albany, the party in charge must take heed that even small offenses and signs of disorder could cost them support if they go unaddressed.

That includes not just violence but conspicuous store thefts, rampant fare-beating, and public nuisances of many kinds that when viewed as unchallenged will send ordinary New Yorkers the insulting message from authorities that they are suckers when they play by the rules. Ignoring these matters alienates voters across ethnicity and class.

RESPONSE REQUIRED

Inflation and government inefficiency worry people for obviously rational reasons. Again, this calls for a clear and meaningful response from those in charge even if they are ultimately subject to global forces that no one state controls. The state will have more to defend on budget balancing when federal dollars fade and deficits loom in the years ahead. If Zeldin had been elected, the Democratic legislature might have had a useful foil to blame for hard measures. Incumbents of any party must wrestle with the details of fiscal balance. In tight times, everyone will be watching every new toll, tax, or fee.

Energy costs must be recognized as a real political irritant and a hit on consumers. Can they be addressed without sacrificing environmental efforts? The challenge is to find real policies that make sense to ordinary voters.

Coalitions that inspire adrenaline and interest these days sometimes include fringe groups. Zeldin and other leaders on the right undoubtedly benefited from the local presence of anti-vaccine extremists, and protesters of academic racial theories that aren’t even taught in school.

Long Island’s reaction also traces to cultural concerns — whether about society’s recent recognition of LGBTQ issues or philosophy about religion. Whatever flaws reasonable Long Islanders might find in GOP policy didn’t stem this local tide. Nor did Zeldin's association with Donald Trump's false claims of a stolen election dissuade voters.

A power monopoly by either party in the state or nation eventually prompts backlash. That’s one reason big elections run in long-term cycles — and places always are traded between “outs” and “ins.” Based on what we saw here, New York still has two major parties — and lawmakers should govern with the middle in mind.