The United States in a disordered new world

The bombardment of Iran, and the near-term economic disruption it fuels, pose a long-term question: What is the global role of the United States, and how is it evolving in this time of uncertainty?

The stream of grandiose White House rhetoric seems to zigzag wildly these days between a new vow of "America First" nonintervention and threats to wipe out the entire historic Persian civilization.

Defenders of the Trump administration's weeks-old Gulf war of choice would like to convince voters we are just glimpsing clever and resolute posturing and tactics. What all can see, however, is a high-stakes standoff that even Iran has managed to force despite military degradation. The result is widely perceived as a major American debacle because Iran retains a formidable grip on the Strait of Hormuz.

The consequences are clear in gas price spikes and stalled supply chains for other resources normally shipped through what has been a mined and blockaded strait. That jam-up was evidently not foreseen when the U.S.-Israel aerial strikes began Feb. 28.

Damage looms to America's standing in the world. Enormous friction with traditional allies, and power opportunities for traditional rivals, have arisen.

TENSIONS WITH EUROPE

Consider Europe. Before Trump denounced the European Union for failing to force the strait open, he wavered on supporting Ukraine against Russia, brandished high EU tariffs, and demanded Denmark hand over Greenland. These unnecessary strains brought him no diplomatic wins. To the contrary they soured relations with allies.

Most recently, Hungary pushed back against authoritarianism by voting out longtime Prime Minister Viktor Orbán shortly after Vice President JD Vance appeared in Budapest trying to buoy the right wing populist.

China, although affected by the oil choke-off in the Gulf, has diversified energy sources and its electric vehicle industry is seeing a surge. More significantly for the rival United States, China controls massive infrastructure development in Asia, Europe, Latin America and Africa.

Which means U.S. competitive interests may not long be boosted by the war's impact on China. On Tuesday, China's leader Xi Jinping said the world must avoid falling back into "the law of the jungle." Obliquely, he said in unusual comments clearly directed at the United States: "Maintaining the authority of international rule of law means not using it when it suits us and abandoning it when it doesn't."

That static, however hypocritical coming from a liberty-averse superpower, sadly won't be offset as it once may have been by American beneficence abroad. The Trump administration is clearly forfeiting decades of "soft power" in impoverished places. It has cut back overseas food and medical aid in this second term, closing clinics and firing workers. Dismantling the U.S. Agency for International Development has already caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, according to the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

Now Trump's emissaries are doubling down on cutting off the current system of humanitarian aid in favor of a for-profit business model. A spokesman for Secretary of State Marco Rubio told The Associated Press last week: "The U.S. remains the most generous country in the history of the world, but those arguing for ‘aid not trade' are really arguing for lining the pockets of a corrupt NGO industrial complex." Nongovernmental organizations have worked for years with the United Nations on its aid programs. Trump does not control these entities, even indirectly, which makes them vulnerable to his targeting and contempt.

WAR'S ECONOMIC DAMAGE

Billions, meanwhile, are spent on the Iran entanglement. Its economic damage won't be restricted to U.S. Treasury coffers. The International Monetary Fund warns of the oil disruptions slowing growth and propelling inflation. That won't end anytime soon, even with recent efforts to end the dispute and open the strait.

Separately, the future reliability of the U.S. dollar has come into question. Its global value is a mainstay of American financial strength. Its shrinkage over the long term would deal another big blow to U.S. influence.

An important interface with the rest of the world is our universities, where academics from elsewhere strive to be hired and produce important research. The current inflexible immigration restrictions have tamped down international student enrollments, and with them threatened the survival of academic programs. It's hard to see how ceding brainpower to other nations promotes "America First."

An important personage who is challenging the current U.S. president in moral leadership is the first American-born pope, Leo XIV. Trump has embarrassed the country with self-glorifying memes and postings and by condemning the pontiff's anti-war message on Iran. This does not burnish the U.S. reputation.

There are glimpses of a definitive end to the war. But a new world disorder will be with us for some time as old alliances are fractured and new powers arise to challenge American hegemony and credibility. The problem with tearing apart the way things are done is failing to gauge what will follow in its place.