Redistricting's losers and carpetbaggers

February 1, 2022

Daily Point

Brentwood, Five Towns, Elmont highlight map shifts

Not everyone feels they come out winners on Long Island’s new state legislative maps. The State Senate redistricting unveiled Tuesday left Michael Fragin, a trustee for the Village of Lawrence, "pretty shocked," he said.

The map crafters are doing pretty much what Fragin and several of his neighbors asked a state panel in testimony last July not be done — move parts of Nassau County, including Cedarhurst, Hewlett and Woodmere, with a common interest among Orthodox Jewish communities, which have tended to vote Republican, across the border into what has been a heavily Democratic Queens district.

That is, a significant part of the Five Towns shifts from the 9th S.D. represented by Sen. Todd Kaminsky (D-Long Beach) to the 10th S.D. long represented by Sen. James Sanders (D-South Ozone Park). "It’s hard to find a commonality on local issues from a very suburban, single family environment like the Five Towns with Jamaica, Queens, a very different urban environment," Fragin told The Point. And, Queens and Nassau represent "a different type of government entirely," he said.

In other instances, changes requested in testimony before the state’s Independent Redistricting Commission were reflected in the proposed maps. Elmont had been split in the Senate between the 7th and 9th districts. Under the new map, Elmont is all in the 7th district, now represented by Sen. Anna Kaplan (D-North Hills), shoring up the incumbent with added Democrats as the party's traditional base in Great Neck crumbles.

The new 6th S.D., represented by Sen. Kevin Thomas (D-Levittown), the first Indian American NY state senator, will no longer have white residents make up more than half the district’s population, helping his reelection chances. Another so-called "majority-minority" district emerges in Suffolk, where the 3rd S.D., represented by freshman Republican Alexis Weik of Sayville, would have a plurality of Latino voters.

The hamlet of Brentwood would thus be united within the district as local activists asked.

And given a new and more advantageous playing field, Brentwood resident Monica Martinez — the Democrat unseated by Weik in 2020 — is expected to announce her candidacy "imminently," pending a "final decision," a Town of Islip source told The Point.

While parts of the process resulted in gerrymanders that look like more jagged puzzle pieces, some districts will look like simpler puzzle pieces — at least with a new straight edge or two.

Assemb. Taylor Darling (D-Hempstead) said her redrawn 18th A.D. makes more sense now. "I don’t have East Meadow and I don’t have Merrick, but I acquired more of Uniondale, I’ve acquired more of Lakeview," Darling told The Point. "I think I have a stronger district. There were parts there that didn’t make the most sense in terms of their needs and the rest of the district’s needs."

Of course the perception of those needs, communities of interest, proper process, and what makes political and geographic sense are all forever debated — which is why these matters usually bring litigation.

— Dan Janison @Danjanison

Talking Point

Displaced congressional hopefuls

Redistricting really came home for two prominent congressional hopefuls on Long Island who will likely end up living in different districts than the ones where they were expecting to run.

Jackie Gordon was the Democratic nominee for 2nd Congressional District in 2020, but her Copiague home now appears headed just over the edge into CD1, according to proposed maps soon to be voted on by the Democrat-controlled State Legislature as part of the post-Census reshuffling.

And Brookhaven Town Councilman Neil Foley of Blue Point was one of the leading names to assume the GOP mantle in gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin’s CD1. But the new lines would put him right in the center of CD2, home to sophomore GOP Rep. Andrew Garbarino.

For Foley, the shift is particularly stark — horizontally, he’d have to drive some 40 minutes practically to Hampton Bays to get to the southeastern edge where the new CD2 hits the new CD1. For what it’s worth, he’s not the only Republican with a CD1-to-CD2 surprise: Zeldin himself would fall into the new CD2, although he’s now running full-steam for governor and not his current congressional seat.

The residency requirements for members of the House of Representatives are in the U.S. Constitution: They only need be residents of the state when elected. But it’s not a politically easy move to be a carpetbagger, nor — on Long Island — to quickly sell one’s home and shift to a new area.

The lines are not finalized until voted on in Albany, but as currently drawn they would likely spur a new plan from both hopefuls.

CD1 will likely become a big Democratic pickup opportunity, and Gordon could throw herself into that primary (more on that below). CD2, on the other hand, would become Long Island’s GOP heartland.

Outwardly, neither party is exactly giving up on either district. Suffolk GOP chair Jesse Garcia tells The Point that the party has multiple contenders for CD1 and will have an announced candidate supported by the party by mid-February. He contends a win is possible there given, in part, "the political atmosphere."

As for CD2, the Democrats have certainly made long-shot efforts against entrenched Republicans on Long Island before. But as one CD2 Democrat told The Point, "I don’t know anyone interested in a suicide mission."

— Mark Chiusano @mjchiusano

Pencil Point

Courting Ukraine

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Final Point

So how will the new districts trend?

To get a better sense of how the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts are set to change on Long Island, The Point turned to Steven Romalewski of the Mapping Service at CUNY Graduate Center, whose cartography has been devoured by NY political junkies in recent days.

Romalewski crunched the numbers to find turnout by town during the 2020 presidential general election, in both the current and proposed districts.

The big partisan shifts are obvious: CD1 would go from a district where only 47.9% voted for Joe Biden instead of Donald Trump, to one where 55.5% did. That’s a sizable 7.6 percentage point Democratic gain.

And CD2 would shift red, with Biden’s share against Trump going from 48% to just under 43%. That’s a more than 5 percentage point GOP gain.

But for those hoping to forecast party primaries, the town data is more intriguing.

Take CD1: Brookhaven, which is Kara Hahn’s home turf and where she and Bridget Fleming have already been doing ground-level battle over endorsements, will still be the largest turnout chunk of the district. But a big piece of the town would be carved out of the district, so the part that remains would generate less than half the number of votes.

Babylon would be the town with the next biggest turnout chunk of CD1. It’s also the home of town Councilwoman Jackie Gordon who had been expecting to run a rematch in CD2, but could instead try her luck in the nationally watched pickup opportunity of CD1.

And across the border in CD2, the town numbers show where the district is getting redder — perhaps pertinent information for potential primaries either this cycle or in years to come. The all-new Brookhaven portion of the district would be the biggest chunk of town in the district, with 2020 Trump plus Biden turnout of 128,773. That chunk went 55% for Trump. Another new section is a small piece of also-hot-red Smithtown. Trump’s share of that portion was 57%.