Gotta count 'em all

Daily Point

Getting at Suffolk vote totals

The Suffolk County Board of Elections isn’t set to start counting absentee ballots until Monday, but The Point has some estimates of where the county’s races might very well end up, according to a document from GOP elections commissioner Nick LaLota that gives a mathematical chance of uncounted paper changing the outcome.

The document, dated Wednesday evening, tabulates the votes counted so far as well as the uncounted absentee and affidavit ballots, and games out the estimated percentage of the paper votes the second-place candidate would have to win to even the score with the leading candidate.

In the top-ballot race, President-elect Joe Biden would need some 72% of the paper ballots to get even with President Donald Trump in the county vote total, a steep climb because Democrats account for less than half of the uncounted, returned paper ballots.

In CD1, which is entirely in Suffolk County, Democrat Nancy Goroff would need approximately 86% of paper ballots to reach GOP incumbent Lee Zeldin’s mark, also tricky with Democrats accounting for less than half of paper there as well (there’s also more than 20,000 ballots from unaffiliated voters).

Other closely watched races that are fully inside the Suffolk borders include Democrat Laura Ahearn’s State Senate contest against Republican Anthony Palumbo, in which Ahearn would have to capture 72% of paper ballots to come even. LaLota’s document also calculates that incumbent Democrat State Sen. Monica Martinez would need 74% of paper ballots to fend off Republican Alexis Weik.

Among the tighter races is Democratic Assemb. Steve Stern vs. Republican Jamie Silvestri. The document has Stern down 56 votes and needing to win just more than 50% of the paper ballots to take the lead, with Democratic paper ballots outnumbering Republican and blank ones combined.

The Point did some of its own estimates with Nassau data earlier this week, though we didn’t have a formal document for the neighboring county for this edition.

The Suffolk percentages are rounded and should be treated as estimates, and the calculation works best with two-candidate races because it assumes the top two candidates split all the paper votes. And the absentee numbers don’t take into account potentially invalid ballots due to a voter deciding to vote in-person instead.

But it appears that not too many Suffolk voters took advantage of that flexibility, one of the more unusual quirks of New York election law and one that leads to some post-Election Day paper shuffling: LaLota estimates there were probably 3,000 examples countywide.

—Mark Chiusano @mjchiusano

Talking Point

Will California 'pave the road' for NY gig workers?

While most eyes across the country were on battleground states like Arizona and Georgia on Election Day and the days that followed, some watchers were paying attention to a particular proposition on California’s ballot, which could have implications for other states, including New York.

Last week, California voters approved Proposition 22, which allows gig economy workers to continue serving as independent contractors, rather than becoming employees of firms like DoorDash, Uber and Lyft. The proposition, which exempts such workers from state labor law, includes the promise of some additional benefits and wage standards.

Before the coronavirus pandemic, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo had begun discussions on how to handle gig workers, with initial plans to include legislation in the state budget. And despite talk of a compromise in the air, nothing was resolved before COVID-19 shut everything down.

Now, some observers tell The Point they hope the California decision will point the way to a similar resolution in New York, where gig workers could maintain their independent contractor status, but be granted additional rights and benefits.

"This is a time for New Yorkers to see that even if you’re a Democrat, even if you’re a progressive Democrat, you should be assured that if you listen to workers and do what they want, it’s actually the popular way to go," one source close to the issue told The Point.

Sources said they expect New York lawmakers to take the California vote into consideration when they return to Albany for their next session and consider gig economy legislation.

But New Yorkers also might be keeping an eye on the election aftermath in California, too. Worker and labor groups who opposed the California measure are already analyzing the proposition, to consider whether there are court challenges to be made ahead.

The answer, sources told The Point, might lie in finding a way to a compromise between ride-sharing companies and labor leaders first, to come up with legislation both could agree to, rather than fighting a Capitol battle.

—Randi F. Marshall @RandiMarshall

Pencil Point

Don't forget about COVID

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Final Point

Behind the quest to protect our water

As the clean water fight continues on Long Island and around the state, a bill to help water providers wage war against polluters awaits passage in Albany.

The legislation says that if a water provider gets a grant from the state or other municipality to help pay for a project to clean up contaminants and meet drinking water standards, that does not absolve the polluter from paying the entire cost of the cleanup. Some polluters have made that argument in court when sued. The bill, carried by Long Islanders State Sen. Jim Gaughran and Assemb. Fred Thiele, says that when a polluter pays its share, the issuer of the grant gets its money back. The legislation has passed the Senate, but Thiele said the Assembly simply ran out of time in the spring and summer.

"It was a late starter, the bill went in late, but there are no issues with the bill," Thiele told The Point Thursday. "The passage of this is a matter of when, not a matter of if."

The bill was written by Suffolk County Water Authority chief legal officer Tim Hopkins and his staff, the second "great" bill Thiele said he’s received from the authority. The first, which changed the start date of the statute of limitations on being able to sue polluters from the time the pollution occurred to the time it was discovered, passed last year and was signed into law by Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo.

SCWA officials say they’ve received $13.3 million in state grants so far for drinking water projects with applications submitted for 14 additional wells, and have suits underway against 10 polluters regarding substances like 1,4-dioxane and PFOA/PFOS.

It’s not clear whether the State Legislature will be called back to Albany to deal with COVID-19-related budget issues before the end of the year, and whether there would be bandwidth to deal with these kinds of bills if the legislative session resumes.

"We were told before Election Day to expect to go back between Thanksgiving and roughly December 15," Thiele said. "I assume that we will. Again, so much of this is dependent on the federal government and a stimulus bill. But I would sort of expect we’re going to go back."

The only question, he said, is whether passage comes in December or January.

—Michael Dobie @mwdobie