Suffolk spending cuts are just the start

In his first whack at solving a $530-million deficit through 2013, Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone has put together a package of $162.3 million in cost savings, efficiencies and minor additional revenues. He briefed county legislators yesterday, and later this month, he'll ask them to approve the portion of this program that they control -- about half of it. But as Bellone acknowledged, this was the easy part.

The next phase, by midyear, involves real pain: union concessions and potential layoffs. Bellone was smart to put this much of his deficit plan on the table now, to signal bond-rating agencies that he's serious about fixing the county's fiscal woes, and to show public sector unions that he's not asking for their help without taking other steps first. But Bellone knows this package is the low-hanging fruit. The amount of pain it imposes on various constituencies is small, compared to what's next.

The biggest item in phase one is $66.8 million in pension amortization. That means the state comptroller will let the county stretch its contributions to the state pension fund over a period of time, instead of all at once. In effect, it's borrowing. But the county has no choice. Its cash flow is so bad that it must borrow as much as $90 million this month against anticipated state and federal revenue to meet payroll and other expenses. Issuing revenue anticipation notes is an ominous sign to bond rating agencies.

The plan also includes items that need state approval, including the creation of a traffic violations bureau and traffic ticket surcharges, to bring in $13.2 million. The plan has $12.1 million in "revenue enhancements," such as charging third-party insurers for the use of county medevac helicopters, imposing a small surcharge on Fire Island ferries, and increasing fares for handicapped transportation, in keeping with the recent bus fare increase.

Bellone aims to save more than $25 million by performance management initiatives, such as better use of county buildings, including ending some office-space leases. And he wants to shut some programs entirely, such as tobacco education and Health Smart, the program that succeeded DARE, which put police officers in schools to talk about drugs. Good programs, but tough times.

So far, what Bellone proposes makes sense. Some constituencies can be expected to push back against these measures, and it will be an early test of Bellone's good working relationship with county legislators to get them to stick with the program and not dismantle it bit by bit. Then comes the really hard part: getting major concessions from county unions and imposing layoffs. Next to the constituencies affected by this first round of savings, they are giants.

As he contemplates layoffs, he should try to avoid cutting jobs that bring in federal and state reimbursements, especially jobs that serve vulnerable populations. For example, the Department of Social Services is scheduled for 146 layoffs, but it has rising caseloads and is having trouble meeting legal deadlines to process applications and pay not-for-profits.

Bellone has made a good start, but the weeks ahead will be a much tougher slog. The amount of pushback will be in proportion to the amount of pain he has to impose. To his credit, he totally understands that reality. But in the next couple of months, we'll begin to see if he can convert understanding into tough, resolute action.