Sizing up Blakeman's LI support

Daily Point

If there’s a Blakeman train, Suffolk GOP has yet to board

Suffolk County Republican chairman Jesse Garcia is holding back, at least for now, on forming a Long Island bloc with Nassau Republican chairman Joe Cairo to create momentum for Bruce Blakeman’s newly announced candidacy for governor.

Within the state GOP, one of the selling points for Blakeman’s candidacy is that the freshly reelected Nassau County executive’s presence on the November ticket could increase turnout in the suburbs, boosting votes for its candidates for Congress. Locally, that means Blakeman, 70, could help the party flip CD3 and CD4, currently held by Democrats Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen.

But informed sources tell The Point that just prior to Blakeman’s announcement for the top state job this week, Suffolk County’s top Republican and Conservative leaders sounded convinced that Rep. Elise Stefanik, 41, had exactly the right profile and stature to beat Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul next November.

“They believe Elise as a working mom represents the better candidate for governor,” one right-leaning activist said. “That doesn’t mean they’d have a problem supporting Bruce,” if he’s seen as helping down-ticket candidates. Stefanik jumped into the race before Blakeman did, and she has been aggressively seeking support from county organizations.

Stefanik displayed a clear alliance with Garcia and players in the local Republican and Conservative organizations in August when she appeared and starred at Garcia’s Lobsterfest fundraiser at Flowerfield in St. James. She posted Aug. 21 on Facebook: “Thank you to Suffolk County GOP for the invitation,” to speak and support local candidates “with an incredible turnout of 1,200! ... Chairman Jesse Garcia has done an incredible job building and leading this Republican stronghold!!”

All House seats are seen as potentially make-or-break for the Republicans to retain their majority status halfway into President Donald Trump’s second and final term as polling shows widespread dissatisfaction with White House policies. Nassau and Suffolk Republicans are usually expected to form a solid Long Island bloc at the state GOP nominating convention in February, a prelude to the June primaries. If one of them becomes the party designee, the other would have to petition to get on the primary ballot.

Nassau's Cairo is clearly committed to Blakeman. But if Suffolk’s Garcia will give Blakeman full-throated support, he has yet to say so.

On Wednesday, Garcia only proclaimed party unity in the goal of unseating Hochul and said in a text to The Point: “The Suffolk County Republican Party is unwavering in its commitment to supporting leaders who will put New Yorkers first and deliver the stability, affordability, and safety that this state so desperately needs.”

As the singular and unquestioned boss of the national GOP, Trump’s desires are expected to rule the roost from Washington. Of Blakeman and Stefanik, Trump has told reporters: “He’s great, and she’s great. They’re both great people." But of the two, Stefanik seemed, in the opening hours of the potential primary competition, eager to scrap with powerful fellow Republicans.

Her campaign knocked Blakeman as a weak candidate who has a record of “supporting corrupt Far Left Democrats.” Its statement called him “an early Christmas present to Kathy Hochul as he works to blow Republicans’ best chance to win.” More than once, Stefanik also has slammed House Speaker Mike Johnson, who from his position is heading the push to retain control of the House.

GOP state chairman Ed Cox has said the party prefers Stefanik; Blakeman retorted to Spectrum News that Cox has “lost virtually every race” as chairman.

Between Stefanik and Blakeman, her fans note, Stefanik has gained more prominence in MAGA world, and as such would out-fundraise him. In a general election, they say, she should do better in motivating female voters and younger voters. At this early stage, of course, all is hypothetical.

— Dan Janison dan.janison@newsday.com

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Final Point

Tourism politics in Suffolk and Nassau

Nearly two years after Nassau County’s decision to cut ties with the region’s tourism agency, Discover Long Island, and go out on its own with a Glen Head firm called RRDA LI Inc., the numbers are showing a decline in spending and local tax revenue.

In the meantime, however, Suffolk’s tourism-related spending is on the rise.

That analysis, and Discover’s emphasis on its success in Suffolk, comes as Discover Long Island’s contract with Suffolk is due to expire at the end of this year, and as RRDA has just one more year on its contract with Nassau. Whether Suffolk sticks with Discover, or Nassau returns to the regional tourism agency, remains to be seen.

Data from Tourism Economics, which studies the economic impact of tourism and annually provides reports on every region across New York State, shows that total visitor spending in Nassau County fell by 0.4% in 2024, the first year Nassau was contracted with RRDA LI. In contrast, visitor spending in Suffolk County, which has maintained its contract with Discover, rose by 7%. Local tourism-related taxes, too, fell in Nassau, by 0.9%, while they rose in Suffolk by 4.6%.

During testimony at an October meeting of the Suffolk Legislature’s Economic Development, Planning & Housing Committee, Discover Long Island officials highlighted the data. And lawmakers quickly picked up on the difference.

“That looks quite impressive," Legis. Stephanie Bontempi said about the discrepancy, emphasizing that Nassau’s drop coincided with its decision to drop Discover.

Said committee Chairman James Mazzarella: “You can see the uptick. Hopefully, it’s indicative of your work and we look forward to continuing that.”

The 2024 disparity came despite significant efforts in Nassau, such as the international cricket tournament that took place in June 2024 at Eisenhower Park.

An analysis by The Point showed that 2024 marked the first year in at least a decade that Nassau County saw its visitor spending drop while Suffolk’s rose. The only other time there was a drop was in 2020, when both counties saw visitor spending fall.

In 2023, Suffolk’s tourist spending rose faster than Nassau’s, but Nassau’s still rose by 9%. In 2022, Nassau outpaced Suffolk, with a 17% increase in traveler spending, compared to Suffolk’s 11% rise. In 2021, when tourism skyrocketed across the region compared to pandemic-era lows, Nassau’s increase was also higher than Suffolk’s. Similar trends occurred with local visitor-related taxes.

Mitch Pally, Discover’s interim chief executive, told The Point that Discover Long Island has tried to make particular inroads with Long Island MacArthur Airport to encourage vacationers to choose to come to Suffolk County, and has also focused attention on marketing within New York City, in the hopes of getting city visitors to take a train out to Suffolk for its beaches, parks and more.

“We think we’re doing a good job and we hope the members of the county government agree,” Pally said.

As a result, Pally noted that he expects the trends the state tourism data saw in 2024 will continue.

“We’ll be very interested to see what the 2025 efforts show,” he said.

— Randi F. Marshall randi.marshall@newsday.com

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