Blakeman's fix for low poll numbers: Get a new poll
Nassau County Executive and GOP gubernatorial contender Bruce Blakeman's Facebook post about the Kansas City firm's poll. Credit: Facebook
Daily Point
Polls apart: County exec cites survey saying he trails Hochul by only 6 points
How does a politician trailing in the polls make up ground?
Easy. Get a new poll.
Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, the Republican candidate challenging Democrat Kathy Hochul for the governor’s seat this November, is trailing by 20 points statewide according to a recent Siena University/Newsday poll.
But on Monday, a New York Post story showcased a different "shocking poll" that has Blakeman "within striking distance" of Hochul, trailing only by 6 points statewide.
That poll was conducted in July by the Kansas City firm co/efficient for a group called the Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers. According to the Post, the survey digs deep into voters’ fears of socialism and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who, for the record, isn’t running for governor or even lieutenant governor. The poll results cast Hochul as unpopular, with 50% of New Yorkers not liking her and 55% saying they want a different governor. Blakeman posted the co/efficient poll results on Facebook Tuesday saying he is "within 6 points and closing."
Will the new poll convince voters and donors alike that Blakeman has a real shot?
The group attributed with commissioning the more favorable Blakeman poll is cited as credible by the Post since the Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers also used co/efficient in 2022 to show that Hochul’s challenger that year, former Rep. Lee Zeldin, trailed by 6 points two months before the election. Hochul went on to defeat Zeldin by 6.4 percentage points.
The Coalition paying for the polls appears to be associated with Nassau’s deep-pocketed political action committees funded by tax grievance companies that give generously to Republicans and a handful of Democrats. Such a poll could be used by Blakeman to convince donors that voters are hopping on board the Bruce bus.
But the Coalition itself needs to update its online presence.
On its website, as of this morning, the Coalition says, "It is time to hold County Executive Laura Curran accountable." Trouble is, Curran was county executive in 2021, when Blakeman beat her by about 2,150 votes. The Coalition’s website includes a directory of elected officials, some of whom last held office before AI was a thing.
Even Blakeman’s campaign website needs an update. In the News section, the latest entry is from March 19. But his social media feeds have been crackling with daily updates of AI-generated videos, man-on-the-street interviews in NYC, and testimonials.
Blakeman includes perhaps the biggest nugget from the poll on Facebook — 42% of people are more likely to vote for him after learning about his campaign.
That’s a significant statistic since across the state Blakeman faces a "who is this guy?" problem. A Siena poll from April showed 64% didn’t know Blakeman or didn’t have an opinion. The June Siena poll found that 30% of Long Islanders either don’t know him or have any opinion of him.
— Mark Nolan mark.nolan@newsday.com
Pencil Point
This could hurt
Credit: CagleCartoons.com/Harley Schwadron
For more cartoons, visit www.newsday.com/nationalcartoons
Final Point
Hochul staying with Jay Jacobs as state Democratic chair
Does an ascendant Democratic left in New York City augur any change for leadership of the state party?
Not in Gov. Kathy Hochul’s mind.
Asked Monday at a meeting with the Newsday editorial board about the future of Jay Jacobs, the Nassau County and state Democratic chair, Hochul was direct and firm.
"He’s my chair," she said, adding that there was no push for change from Democratic socialists responsible for the success of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the ousting of two incumbent House members in the June primary.
Even if there was, Hochul said she would support Jacobs, noting that the politics of New York state overall were moderate. "I don't change who I am. I will never change who I am, but I also understand the frustration that drove the left. I understand that they're just so fed up," she said.
Jacobs, however, told The Point that he will determine his plans later this summer after he meets with Hochul "and other key leaders."
Said Jacobs, "It’s a matter of respect."
— Rita Ciolli rita.ciolli@newsday.com
Subscribe to The Point here and browse past editions of The Point here.
