Early read on early primary voting on Long Island

Daily Point

Low GOP energy in CD3 compared with CD4

The initial numbers from the first two days of early voting in Long Island primaries yielded little insight into eventual outcomes in the region's four congressional districts. But early voting numbers in two races raised an eyebrow or two among insiders.

In Nassau County's two congressional districts — both of which feature Republican primaries — the early voting numbers, as of 2:15 p.m. Monday, showed higher turnout among Democrats in CD3 and just slightly more Republicans voting than Democrats in CD4.

In CD4, Hempstead Town Receiver of Taxes Jeanine Driscoll has the backing of the GOP machine and is being challenged by Marvin Williams. So far, 1,129 Republicans have voted in that race compared with 1,017 Democrats. Those Democrats were likely voting in the Democratic Party primary for New York State comptroller. That race features incumbent Thomas DiNapoli facing his first major primary challenge from Drew Warshaw and Raj Goyle.

In the Nassau County portion of CD3, which makes up most of the district, 1,782 Democrats voted early compared with 544 Republicans. That's an interesting data point considering the Republican primary — between Greg Hach and party-backed former Assemb. Mike LiPetri — has generated far more interest than incumbent Rep. Thomas Suozzi's Democratic Party primary challenge from Danielle Welch. Keep in mind Welch is from Queens and the early voting numbers represent Nassau voters only.

Do the early voting numbers reveal a fear within the Nassau GOP that its preferred candidate, Driscoll, may need a boost to beat Williams to advance to the general election to face incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen? Despite a more brutal brawl among Republicans in CD3, the GOP turnout there was lower. Hach, who is running to the right of LiPetri, has labeled him another George Santos. Eyebrows were raised when New York City's only GOP member of Congress, Nicole Malliotakis, came to LI this weekend to campaign for LiPetri including a stop the pair made at a Greek festival in Glen Cove. Is the low turnout a sign that LiPetri could be in trouble?

Meanwhile, Suffolk's CD1 reached 1,009 votes as Chris Gallant and Lukas Ventouras face off for the Democratic nomination to challenge Republican incumbent Nick LaLota. That race has curiously garnered the attention of national Republicans, who paid for mailers touting Ventouras as the more left-leaning candidate. That's widely seen as a tacit acknowledgment that Republicans would rather face Ventouras than Gallant, a military veteran, in the November general election.

Republican incumbent Andrew Garbarino and his Democratic challenger Pat Halpin aren't being primaried in CD2.

In East Hampton Town, however, where 76 Democrats are running primary challenges for all 38 party committee positions in 19 election districts, early voting is higher than anywhere else in Suffolk. Another factor influencing early voting turnout there is the Democratic Party primary for East Hampton Town supervisor between incumbent Kathee Burke-Gonzalez and East Hampton Village Mayor Jerry Larsen. That race will basically determine who the next supervisor is since Republicans didn't nominate a candidate for the November general election.

According to data provided to The Point, 318 registered East Hampton Town Democrats voted in the first two days of early voting, far more than any other Suffolk town, which is notable since East Hampton is the second-least populous town in the county. Brookhaven and Huntington, with far larger populations, had 239 and 229 votes, respectively, in the first two days of early voting.

Michael Dawidziak, a longtime Republican consultant, said primaries are generally insider affairs that don't attract attention. "Probably a lot of people don't even know they're going on," Dawidziak told The Point.

New York State and Nassau County Democratic Party chair Jay Jacobs agreed that voter turnout is low, even for this point in primaries. "The early vote turnout is, as predicted, very low," Jacobs told The Point. "Most voters are ... far more focused on gas and food prices ..."

A Suffolk County Democratic Party source told The Point that outside of East Hampton, Suffolk's early voting numbers were "a little sleepy," especially compared with 2024 when CD1 featured a well-funded primary between Nancy Goroff and John Avlon for the Democratic Party line. In the first two days of early voting that year, 1,117 people voted in the CD1 Democratic primary compared with 1,009 who voted over the weekend.

But because primaries are open only to registered voters of one party, and fewer people vote in primaries to begin with, every vote matters. "Anything can happen in a primary," Dawidziak said. "They're turnout victories. If you have a good enough operation to identify supporters and get them to vote, you can generally win a primary."

— Rita Ciolli rita.ciolli@newsday.com, Mark Nolan mark.nolan@newsday.com

Pencil Point

A knockout

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Quick Points

All hail the Knicks! Except prediction markets

• The Knicks are fresh off their NBA championship, but early voting on prediction markets aren't showing them any respect. On Polymarket, the just-defeated San Antonio Spurs (21%) and Oklahoma City Thunder (20%) were favored higher than the Knicks (11%) in odds of winning the 2027 NBA title. As the old maxim goes, championships are won, not given.
• Predicting traffic on Long Island is a whole lot easier than predicting elections or NBA champs. As the 126th U.S. Open practice rounds started Monday, traffic was unsurprisingly jamming up the East End. What are the odds traffic will overtake the tristate for the 2026 FIFA World Cup final on July 19 at MetLife Stadium?
• As artificial intelligence continues its unabated takeover of every aspect of life, some companies are apparently drawing the line over cost. Bosses want to curtail tokenmaxxing — a sales-team term for employees using as much AI as possible to meet metrics — because AI bills are getting expensive. Corporate bottom lines will prevent AI from taking over humanity because it costs too much?
• Elon Musk became the first trillionaire, thanks to the IPO launch of SpaceX last week. Struggling millionaires took to social media to gripe about inequity.
• In what could perhaps be a misguided attempt to bring history to life for students, a Massapequa High School custodian was arrested last week when a replica Civil War musket fired in the parking lot while students were taking their SATs. Police said the custodian was allegedly "removing the musket, which did not contain ammunition, from the trunk of a car when it discharged," according to a Newsday news division story. That's hands-on learning.

— Mark Nolan mark.nolan@newsday.com

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