Republicans in Islip circling the supervisor seat

Daily Point

Door open for next Islip Town supervisor

The election results have yet to be certified, but political strategists are looking ahead.

That's especially true in Islip.

Most immediately, the Islip Town Board will have to choose a successor for board member DawnMarie Kuhn, who will be joining the Assembly in January. Whoever is appointed — and it's unclear who that will be — will have to run for the seat in 2027. One insider told The Point that as many as nine people are interested in screening for the seat. The key there, however, is that any pick will need the support of three of the four remaining board members, likely including current Town Supervisor Angie Carpenter. That may be a tough lift.

But the 2027 race getting the most attention is the battle for who succeeds Carpenter.

It is, at the moment, a free-for-all. Carpenter, a Republican who has led the town since 2015, is term-limited and cannot run again. That leaves the door open for GOP politicians who have spent more than a decade on the sidelines.

For a while, there was talk that Carpenter might leave her position early, to take another job. That, she told The Point Wednesday, isn't likely to happen.

"I have no plans of vacating early," Carpenter said. "I was elected for four years. Unless something unforeseen develops, that's my plan."

Multiple sources familiar with town and GOP politics tell The Point that at the moment, there's no Republican front-runner. But that'll have to change soon, as the GOP doesn't want a primary, and likely will have to choose its candidate by late January, since petitioning will start in February. What's key, those sources said, is to find a candidate that has the backing of Islip's various factions, as Carpenter often has found herself at odds with several Republican and Conservative town council members.

Among the names garnering the most attention are some individuals both new and familiar. One particular name has risen to the top of many lists in recent days, in part because she'd be new to electoral politics in Islip, but already has significant support among the town's varied Republican political circles. That's Suffolk County Police Deputy Commissioner Belinda Alvarez-Groneman, who previously headed Pronto of Long Island, a Bay Shore community outreach organization. Alvarez-Groneman, a onetime congressional aide to former Rep. Lee Zeldin and the first Hispanic woman on the county police commissioner's staff, was honored at the town's women's history celebration earlier this year.

And already, Assemb. Doug Smith, the Islip Town Republican Party chairman, is singing her praises.

"I think she would be outstanding," Smith told The Point when asked about Alvarez-Groneman. "She has a solid background in law enforcement and in the community. She would be an outstanding choice now or in the future."

But Alvarez-Groneman isn't the only Islip Republican under consideration. Sources also named Tom Owens, who serves as the town's commissioner of both parks and public works, as a potential candidate who's interested in the job.

Then there are those with long-standing political ties to the town and the county. The name most consistently offered up in The Point's reporting is Phil Boyle, a former state senator who now serves as Suffolk OTB's president and chief executive. Another oft-discussed possibility was Smith himself, who had told The Point earlier this year that he "would certainly take a look at it."

But on Wednesday, Smith confirmed to The Point he was no longer interested in the role, saying he wanted to "continue serving the people in my role in Albany." Also a factor: To become supervisor, Smith would have to give up his role as Islip Town GOP chair due to the town ethics laws barring a dual role.

Among the other elected officials in the mix: Town Councilman John Lorenzo, who often has been at odds with Carpenter, Assemb. Jarett Gandolfo, who will be moving to the other side of the State Legislature in January after winning the seat for the 8th State Senate District, Suffolk County Legis. Steven Flotteron and Islip Town Receiver of Taxes Andy Wittman.

Former County Legis. Tom Cilmi and current Legis. Trish Bergin, who previously served on the Islip Town Board, have been mentioned as well, though sources said they may be unlikely choices.

As for the Democrats? There's not much being said about their pick. But in a nod to how unusual it is for the Democrats to run the Town of Islip, one name that has popped is the last Democrat to be elected to the slot — the only one to hold the position in about 60 years. That's Phil Nolan, who ran the town from 2006-2011.

So far, Carpenter hasn't put her finger on the scale.

"I would hope that the person who succeeds me is willing to give the time and energy to the position that it deserves," she said.

— Randi F. Marshall randi.marshall@newsday.com

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Final Point

Working Families jumps Conservatives on post-Blakeman ballots

One notable side effect of Gov. Kathy Hochul's surprising blowout win over challenger Bruce Blakeman last week is its impact on the ballot position of the state's leading minor parties.

For Republicans, the Conservative Party is the ballot line that commonly offers an alternative line for its candidates. For Democrats, the Working Families Party plays that role.

Last week's election results showed the left-wing WFP's vote for governor at 4.17%, significantly surpassing the Conservatives' 3.88%. That means that for the next election, Democrats will keep the top position (Row A), and Republicans the second (Row B), followed by WFP (Row C) and then Conservative (Row D).

The Point asked state Conservative Party chairman Gerard Kassar what he considered the significance of slipping one notch for those future elections. Kassar said it's mainly a matter of "bragging rights."

The main ballot impact, he said, is that both minor parties surpassed the threshold to retain automatic access to future ballots by drawing more than 130,000 votes. WFP got 373,710, and Conservatives 234,585, according to election night tallies.

The WFP clearly gained from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's announcement during early voting that he cast his ballot for Hochul on that minor-party line. In Brooklyn alone, where the state party is headquartered, Hochul received an estimated 65,000 WFP votes.

In late October in response to Mamdani's statement, Hochul was quoted as saying while campaigning at a Brooklyn pizza place, "Okay by me as long as they vote."

Since the leading Republican presidential candidates are all conservative by ideology, any of them could get cross-endorsed by the capital "C" Conservative Party for 2028, thus attracting votes to the line, Kassar said.

Between 2022 and 2026, Conservative Party enrollment statewide increased 7% from 153,141 to 164,597. During that period, the party's Long Island enrollment increased 4%, from 29,721 to 30,979. As of this month, 21,119 Suffolk County residents and 9,860 Nassau residents were actively enrolled as Conservatives, meaning they had voted in the span of two general elections or have confirmed their address with their local board of elections.

Blakeman got a total of 45,724 Conservative votes on Long Island this year, 15,443 in Nassau, where he is the county executive, and 30,281 in Suffolk. Then-Rep. Lee Zeldin got a total 62,671 Long Island votes on the line in 2022 — 21,411 in Nassau and 41,260 in his home county of Suffolk.

The Conservative Party has been an influential force in the state since its founding in 1962. The New York State Working Families Party, now a force for the left, was founded in 1998.

— Dan Janison dan.janison@newsday.com

— Karthika Namboothiri karthika.namboothiri@newsday.com

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