Out of the gate, Dems take the lead in early voting

Daily Point

House speaker to visit LI for GOP vote rally

Every wizened political analyst will tell you that early voting isn't predictive of final results, yet they are all staring at the numbers and finding signs.

The topline from the kickoff of voting this weekend shows that registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans on Saturday and Sunday in New York State as well as in Nassau and Suffolk counties and in two of Nassau's three towns. And it continued into Monday as well.

"I don't recall, in a nonpresidential year, this kind of enthusiasm by Democrats," said Jay Jacobs, the Democratic Party chair for New York State and Nassau County.

In Nassau, where County Executive Bruce Blakeman is topping the Republican ticket as the gubernatorial candidate, the tally for the first two days was 46,244 votes: 20,513 for Democrats and 16,448 for Republicans. The remaining votes cast, 19%, were from members of third parties or those not affiliated with a party. The spread of Democratic to Republican turnout was 44%-36%.

In a statement to The Point, GOP chair Joseph Cairo interpreted the numbers positively. "We are on track for Republican victories locally in Nassau, and we have an equal degree of confidence in voter support throughout the state for Bruce Blakeman and his statewide team," he said.

As of 4:30 p.m. Monday, the Democratic edge continued. Of the 19,981 votes cast by that time, there were 8,326 by Democrats, 7,543 by Republicans and 3,222 votes by others.

In both Long Island counties, early voting so far has doubled since 2022, the last time congressional races were on a ballot that didn't also include the presidency. While the increased turnout could be a measure of voter enthusiasm, four years ago, Republicans were more hesitant than Democrats to adapt to early voting.

One of the bigger eye-openers is the lopsided turnout 47%-29% of Democratic voters to Republican in Suffolk, one of the most red of the suburban counties. "There are crazy numbers coming out of Suffolk," said Jacobs.

Suffolk County Democratic Party chair Rich Schaffer curbed the enthusiasm, somewhat.

"Elections are a marathon not a sprint, but I’d still rather be off to a fast start either way," he told The Point, saying the numbers reflected the energy "we have felt on the ground for months."

GOP Suffolk chair Jesse Garcia in a statement to The Point said the numbers were only "a very small snapshot" and that the party was "where we expected to be."

Garcia said he was cautious, "because any trends are just too early to predict," adding that the vote by registered Democrats dropped from Saturday to Sunday.

On Tuesday, the Suffolk GOP will host a get-out-the-vote rally, with free food and beverages, for the statewide ticket. It also includes an appearance by Speaker Mike Johnson, who leads the GOP majority in the House of Representatives.

"While Mike Johnson is no stranger to Suffolk County, there is a reason why he is coming tomorrow, incumbents are in trouble," said Bryan Sokolowski, political director for the Suffolk County Dems.

In Nassau, the countywide early voting numbers are a window into the town races, all controlled by Republicans.

The Town of North Hempstead is the focus of the most contentious race as Democrats are focused on flipping it blue. The winner of the supervisor's race will determine the majority on the board. Democrat Sean McCarthy is challenging Jennifer DeSena, who runs on the Republican line.

Within North Hempstead's election districts, 46% of the voters so far were enrolled Democrats, compared with 31% who were registered Republicans. The remainder were blanks and members of third parties.

In the Town of Hempstead, a GOP party stronghold, Democratic turnout for the weekend was 11,235 and Republican 8,925 with 4,298 in minor parties or unaffiliated. The only bright spot, unsurprisingly, was the Town of Oyster Bay, where 3,704 Republicans outnumbered the 3,299 Democrats who turned out.

As they say, but who's counting?

— Rita Ciolli rita.ciolli@newsday.com

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Final Point

Even now, the even-year beef goes on

This weekend New York State residents finally began voting as planned on extra-packed ballots brought forth by a new even-year voting system. For the first time statewide elections are being held simultaneously with county and town and most other local races. The ostensible goal of the law, signed by Gov. Kathy Hochul in 2023, is to increase turnout in this blue state.

Since its signing the even-year law survived legal challenges in state courts. In 2024 some individual voters and government entities from Long Island and others across the state sued to stop even-year voting in its tracks. After winning in a lower court in Onondaga County the plaintiffs lost on appeal, ultimately in the state's top Court of Appeals.

But even with the even-year law fully effective, the New York State Republican Committee is fighting to void its provisions, this time by suing in federal court. New York State Republican State Committee v. Hochul is pending in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District, which includes Nassau and Suffolk counties.

It is another drawn-out battle. In June, U.S. District Judge Gary R. Brown dismissed the complaint challenging the law. The remaining government plaintiffs — Suffolk County and the Town of Huntington — were dismissed from the case. Brown called government spending on the lawsuit "troubling," since there was lack of "evident injury" to those entities.

But the legal fight resumed in August. Plaintiffs in a new action included Town of North Hempstead Supervisor Jennifer DeSena, Hempstead Town Supervisor John Ferretti, Nassau Legis. Mazi M. Pilip and other candidates from off Long Island. "A candidate's ability to reach voters is not a courtesy the state can switch off when it becomes politically inconvenient — it is a right the Constitution guarantees," said William A. Brewer III, attorney for the latest crop of plaintiffs.

In a complaint filed in October, Brewer argued the law "violates the First Amendment because it imposes severe burdens on candidates' core political speech. By mandating the consolidation of local races onto ballots dominated by federal and state contests without the ability of political subdivisions to opt out, the (law) deprives local candidates of a meaningful opportunity to convey their messages to voters, effectively pushing their races to the bottom of an exceedingly long ballot."

The plaintiffs were trying to block the current local races from taking place and failed. But on Oct. 13, a conference was held in court to discuss a state motion to dismiss the continuing case. The court asked for additional briefing on the legal issues. A brief is due Nov. 12. Responses will be due two weeks later.

It is too late for the lawsuit to cancel the 2026 election balloting already underway, lawyers following the case told The Point. But if the state GOP manages to win later in court, the future election calendar and lengths of terms could be reshuffled to allow most county, town and other local elections to be held in odd-numbered years.

As in the saga of midcycle redistricting, the partisan legal battling over even-year elections goes on and on.

— Dan Janison dan.janison@newsday.com

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Update: The original edition of The Point misspelled Bryan Sokolowski's name.