Will Blakeman's home turf break as intended?

Daily Point

Dem chair says Hochul could win Nassau; GOP says not likely

Four years ago, in what proved to be an unexpectedly strong challenge against Gov. Kathy Hochul, then-Rep. Lee Zeldin lost by 6% but won Nassau County 55%-45%. Zeldin also won his home county of Suffolk as expected, by 17%.

Now Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman is trying to unseat Hochul and needs a strong Long Island base to help offset Democratic domination in New York City. But Newsday/Siena University polls released Wednesday showed Blakeman with a mere 1-point edge in Nassau and a 53-38% lead in Suffolk, a 15% margin. The margin of error for the Long Island results was 5.7%.

Polls vary. While Hochul was up by 9 points in the statewide Siena poll, a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday had Hochul leading by 20% across New York. One explanation may be how to interpret results from the substantial percentage of state voters who are not affiliated with either party.

Jay Jacobs, the Democratic state and Nassau County Democratic chairman, expressed optimism to The Point that Hochul could win Nassau County, and keep Suffolk close enough to help prevent the metropolitan suburbs from going collectively to Blakeman. In those counties — Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester and Rockland — she leads 48-46, according to the Siena results.

For sure, Blakeman "is strong on Long Island. He's strong on his home turf in Nassau County," Don Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute, told Newsday's news division. "But he needs to win astronomically big on Long Island because New York City is going to vote Democratic" for Hochul.

But Republicans are expressing deep skepticism that either Long Island county would be at all close at this point.

Statewide, the GOP says internal polling that hasn't been released shows the candidates far closer than a 9-point or 20-point lead for Hochul. As one Long Island Republican put it, "the mood is buoyant, energized and enthusiastic."

Republican operatives privately but confidently argue that it's impossible to believe Blakeman's home county will be in play for his opponent a year after he won reelection by 11.3 points.

A consultant who declined to be identified told The Point that Nassau will serve as a local test of whether the new even-year voting law heightens Democratic turnout — a chronic problem for the party — as its Albany sponsors intended. Meanwhile, Republican money is pouring into the county to help the two House candidates, Jeanine Driscoll in CD4 and Mike LiPetri in CD3, who are trying to unseat Democratic Reps. Laura Gillen and Tom Suozzi, respectively.

Numbers always shift in the final six weeks before Election Day. In a make-or-break atmosphere for the state and nation, a range of sudden events could send the best-laid plans reeling. Pollsters always warn that they can only produce momentary, approximate snapshots.

— Dan Janison dan.janison@newsday.com

Pencil Point

Pressed

For more cartoons, visit www.newsday.com/nationalcartoons.

Reference Point

Then and now, tax assessment is not so simple

This week back in 1982, a Newsday editorial described a "simple" change you probably wouldn't see written today.

"A cost-saving plan put forward recently by the Suffolk County Legislature's Budget Review Office has worked well in neighboring Nassau County for the past 44 years. Suffolk ought to try it. The plan is simple: Switch from 10 town assessors to a single county assessor," the editorial board wrote in 1982.

Back then, like now, Nassau had a single system of assessment for the whole county, while each of the 10 towns in Suffolk maintained their own assessment departments.

While "the shift to a countywide system would require the towns to surrender one of their home-rule prerogatives," the editorial explained, "Local governments are traditionally reluctant to yield their powers to the county. In this case, we hope the obvious attractions of a county-level assessment system will persuade town officials to break with that tradition."

The editorial board touted several benefits to moving to a single assessing body: saving taxpayers $1 million a year, eliminating "bound to occur" duplications, preventing towns from using haphazard or out-of-date practices, and fostering greater efficiency with a larger, better-trained staff. Plus the county, with its broader tax base, could "afford to computerize the progress."

But things really weren't greener in the county next door. Nassau's countywide assessment department in 1982 was still reeling from a 1977 court ruling that mandated a comprehensive countywide revaluation because the county was still assessing land using values from 1938 construction costs. This got caught in years of legal battles, delaying the first market-based countywide reassessment until the early 2000s.

Ultimately, Suffolk did not change to a countywide system, as "it was not greeted with high enthusiasm."

It doesn't mean the editorial board was incorrect, at least in theory.

Since then, a 2026 Newsday analysis found that most Suffolk County towns haven't conducted townwide reassessments in decades. Assessments in six of Suffolk's 10 towns were last updated before 1974, according to the state Division of Taxation and Finance, with the exceptions of Islip in 1979, Riverhead in 1980, Southampton in 2019 and Shelter Island in 2026.

Meanwhile in Nassau 44 years after that editorial, assessment also has not exactly "worked well." In 2011 the rolls were frozen, followed by a market-based reassessment in 2018, a phase-in plan, and then another freeze in 2022, all while the endless grieving of taxes did not get addressed.

Clearly there's no "simple" fix for Long Island's assessments — whether county- or town-based.

— Amanda Fiscina-Wells amanda.fiscina-wells@newsday.com

Subscribe to The Point here and browse past editions of The Point here.