The prospects for the hometown candidate this time around

Daily Point

Can Blakeman rival Zeldin's impressive vote totals?

Relying on polls to predict the outcome of a political race is always risky, even more so now when it's difficult to reach participants and trust the veracity of their answers. Another concern is the accuracy of forecasting turnout models — who are the ones voting and how many do it.

Yet in the final weeks of campaigning, the polls start to come into some focus. To get a bead on how the gubernatorial race is playing out on Long Island, The Point canvassed a half dozen folks on the battlefront in Nassau and Suffolk who had access to polling data. Concerned about their continued access to information, they asked not to be identified.

In 2022 Gov. Kathy Hochul held off a strong challenge from Rep. Lee Zeldin by only 6 points, New York's closest race in decades for the state's top leader. At this time four years ago, the polls showed Hochul's lead narrowing — ahead 4 to 11 percentage points — while a few gave Zeldin a slight edge. But on Long Island Zeldin won the Suffolk vote by 17 points and Nassau by 10 points.

This time around Hochul faces another Long Islander, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, and right now the spread in her favor by independent pollsters goes from 9-14 points statewide. The latest survey released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University stands at 14%.

So, what are the numbers looking like on Long Island? Our insiders say in Suffolk, Blakeman can win the county by 11 points or lose it by 1. As for Nassau, which fits neatly into the two well polled contests in the 3rd and 4th Congressional districts, Hochul has not cracked the 50% mark in favorability. Yet, she is expected to do better in Nassau than four years ago. Blakeman is likely to win his home county, but his margin is likely to be "in the single digits," said one knowledgeable observer.

Blakeman won the 2021 county exec race against Democrat Laura Curran by a slender 50.4%-49.6% margin. But he was reelected last year, 56%-44%.

So while Blakeman is likely to carry Long Island, his numbers will be considerably lower than Zeldin's. Without a bigger harvest of LI votes, it's much more difficult for a Republican to win statewide, our insiders predicted.

— Rita Ciolli rita.ciolli@newsday.com and Mark Nolan mark.nolan@newsday.com

Pencil Point

Midterm blame

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Final Point

Does Barde's win mean peace among Islip Dems?

Monday morning quarterbacking this Thursday after the Islip Town Democratic Committee's organizational meeting leaves insiders wondering what comes next — a lawsuit? Party unity? Some kind of brokered detente by a neutral arbiter?

And the question on most Democrats' minds since this fracas started in February — how does it all help elect Democrats on Election Day?

Islip Dem chair Leigh-Ann Barde, who rebelled against county chair Rich Schaffer, easily retained her position Wednesday night in unofficial results. Without counting her last-minute appointees to the committee, Barde won with 56.3% of the gubernatorial weighted votes of committee members. That majority jumps to 60.8% when adding votes cast by her appointees.

"I'm grateful to have won the position and proud to earn the support of my committee," Barde told The Point. "Now, we can continue to do our job and refocus. We remain a functional, independent committee."

The Islip Dem leadership battle was another schism in the countywide organization after Southold Town Dem chair Kathryn Casey Quigley mounted a spirited yet unsuccessful bid to unseat Schaffer. It marked the first challenge to Schaffer's grip on the county party in his 26-year tenure.

Barde had been a longtime Schaffer supporter but split with him last month to back Casey Quigley. That led to Barde herself being challenged by Elizabeth Mercado, a former Brentwood board of education president.

The organizational meeting, held at Greenwood Hall in East Islip Wednesday night, had to be held outside after technology issues and capacity concerns arose, with supporters toting chairs from inside the building. Barde had hired security to ensure the vote was smooth, and two sources told The Point there was just one small disturbance. A county Democratic source faulted Barde for restarting the meeting four times because of the overcapacity crowd, only for it to be held outside in 50-degree weather.

Barde and her supporters aren't expecting peace, though.

One Barde supporter told The Point that her faction anticipates a lawsuit from the county committee over whether Schaffer appointees should have been allowed to vote. Despite that, the source said, Islip Dems are "all on board with harmony and unity going forward ... We're not going to be changing the locks on people who didn't vote for Leigh-Ann or kick them off the committee. We're just trying to refocus on the election in a week and a half."

And less than two weeks from Election Day, when Democrats feel they can make gains on Long Island following the coattails of purported national trends, both sides of the Barde-Schaffer kerfuffle want to move on.

"Our prerogative is our candidates that deserve support and have not gotten the support they deserve because of all the hijinks," she said. "We have work to do."

A Schaffer supporter earlier this week bemoaned the drain on resources caused by the internal fights. "Once again, several hundred Democrats are in a room, not to raise money or talk issues, but to decide who should run the party," the source said.

But there's one more town leadership battle to resolve.

The Huntington Democratic committee holds its organizational meeting tonight, and the chair battle there, though tamer than in Islip or Brookhaven, is indicative of the internal conflict among Suffolk Dems spilling into public view. Insiders expect current chair Jill Kaufman to fend off a challenge from Liz Best. Kaufman, who is backed by Schaffer, made 66 appointments to her committee recently, two sources told The Point. Those added votes should be enough to ensure her reelection, both sources said.

Huntington Democrats have been riled since last year’s election, when there were allegations that party raiding by a Working Families Party candidate may have tipped the supervisor’s race in Republicans’ favor. The WFP candidate received 1,219 votes while Republican Ed Smyth beat Democrat Cooper Macco by a mere 418 votes.

— Mark Nolan mark.nolan@newsday.com

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