LIRR strike may force higher rideshare prices to NYC, experts say

Long Islanders may see higher rideshare prices this weekend if Long Island Rail Road workers and MTA top brass fail to come to a deal to avert a historic strike.

With just hours left before a Saturday 12:01 a.m. deadline for a strike, the MTA will offer six shuttle buses from LIRR stops to subway lines in New York City if no agreement is reached.

But if New Yorkers turn to rideshare apps instead, they could see higher prices if there’s not enough drivers to meet demand, said Christo Wilson, a professor of computer science at Northeastern University in Boston.

"In that case, surge pricing could go way up, and there would be way more demand than supply," Wilson said. "If everybody just decides to stay home ... maybe there won't be that much of an impact."

The MTA has encouraged commuters to work from home in the event of a strike. Uber and Lyft could also ask drivers to work through the strike period through emails and texts, which would help keep prices down, Wilson added.

But because rideshare drivers are independent contractors, they’re not obligated to work at any time, he added. Whether prices go up depends on demand at any given moment.

"Surge pricing is a totally dynamic system. It’s not preprogrammed," Wilson said.

If there are more riders looking for a lift than available drivers, Uber uses an algorithm to automatically hike prices, according to the company. Greater demand also results in higher prices for Lyft users, according to the app’s website.

The rideshare company Lyft is "closely monitoring the situation," and "working to ensure there are enough drivers on the platform to meet demand," said CJ Macklin, Lyft’s communications director.

He encouraged users to schedule rides ahead of time, to wait longer for a lower-priced car through Lyft’s Wait & Save option, or to use the app’s Price Lock feature — where users pay $2.99 a month to cap the price of frequent rides.

"Our focus is on making sure both riders and drivers have a reliable experience, no matter what happens," Macklin said in an emailed statement.

Uber did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Uber and Lyft rides out to Long Island are already pricey. A standard Lyft from Grand Central Station to the Hicksville LIRR stop cost $144 as of around 1 p.m. on Friday, while a Wait & Save ride cost $129. A standard Uber cost $122.78 for that same trip.

New York City taxis also charge higher fares for passengers traveling outside the city to Nassau County, according to the city’s Taxi & Limousine Commission.

Surge pricing is unpopular among riders, and can actually result in riders giving their drivers worse reviews, said Linli Xu, an associate professor at the University of Minnesota.

Xu and two colleagues found that surge pricing significantly increased the likelihood of a customer complaining about a ride, in a study of millions of rides through a Chinese rideshare company published in 2023.

"Surge pricing is not designed by the driver, but the drivers take the fault," in a customer’s eyes, Xu said.

And higher fares don’t always translate to better pay. Xu’s study found that greater complaints against drivers lowered their future income, offsetting the immediate boost from surge pricing.

If there is a strike, LIRR service to the Jamaica AirTrain JFK Station may be suspended, Newsday reported. But Jason Ramirez (56), a dispatcher with EZ Ride Long Island Car Service, didn't expect the strike to impact his business, which he said is more impacted by seasonal travel demand.

"I think businesses like mine really wouldn’t feel much of a difference," Ramirez said.