Five Mets trends worth noting after first month of MLB season
Mets first baseman Pete Alonso goes to the dugout in the third inning against Atlanta at Citi Field on Friday. Credit: Noah K. Murray
April ended for the Mets with, well, showers.
They got rained out for a second day in a row Sunday, meaning they’ll open the proverbial search for May flowers on Monday with a single-admission doubleheader against Atlanta beginning at 1 p.m.
In the first game, Denyi Reyes will start what amounts to a bullpen game for the Mets, who will face Spencer Strider. Forty-five minutes or so after that one ends, Tylor Megill will take the ball opposite Charlie Morton.
Jose Butto will not pitch in either contest. The Mets demoted him to Triple-A Syracuse on Sunday. They did not announce who would take his roster spot, but reliever Stephen Nogosek (right elbow bone bruise) is due to return from the injured list.
The Mets and Atlanta have played only five of a scheduled 27 innings the past three days. As the calendar flips during this impromptu pause, here is a look at five noteworthy early-season trends for the Mets. All statistics were entering play Sunday.
1 The offense is prone to getting shut down.
The Mets already have been held scoreless on five occasions. That happened only eight times in all of 2022.
The starting pitchers in those games have ranged from known to be excellent (Max Fried, Clayton Kershaw) to probably not as good as the Mets made them look (Wade Miley, Freddy Peralta, Josiah Gray). Three of the five were lefthanders, continuing the trend from last season in which the Mets were less effective against southpaws.
Overall, the Mets ranked 15th in the majors with 4.52 runs per game, which actually isn’t far off from their 4.77 from last season.
They were 20th in batting average (.240), ninth in OBP (.332) and 19th in slugging percentage (.384). Translation: They have walked plenty but have not done much else.
2 Pete Alonso remains their best, most important hitter.
He leads the team with 10 home runs, which is as many as the next four hitters combined. His OPS is .890, eclipsed only by Brandon Nimmo’s .892, with nobody else particularly close. And the sudden end of his hot streak about a week ago coincided with the Mets’ worst overall play.
Consider that in wins, Alonso has a .350/.443/.733 slash line. In losses, those numbers are .133/.152/.333.
Alonso was the Mets’ only true home run threat last year. In declining to make any substantial lineup improvements during the offseason, the Mets decided they were comfortable enough with that dynamic. But it leaves them at risk of getting exposed when Alonso isn’t red-hot or is absent from the lineup.
3 The rotation badly needs its top starters to pitch like it.
Max Scherzer (suspension) and Justin Verlander (injury) are expected back this week, which is a welcome development for a rotation that has not been good.
The Mets, already nine deep on their depth chart, have gotten a 4.94 ERA from their starters. That was 22nd in the majors, right between the rebuilding Nationals and rebuilding Tigers. Similarly, they were 19th with 5.06 innings per start, which means the bullpen has had to carry a significant load.
If the aces pitch to their abilities — which was not the case for Scherzer in his first four outings — the Mets will be a lot better off.
4 The bullpen has been OK without Edwin Diaz.
For now. David Robertson (0.79 ERA, zero blown saves) and Adam Ottavino (2.70 ERA, zero blown saves) have been superb. But the Mets aren’t as deep in the late innings as they thought they were, especially now with Brooks Raley joining Diaz on the injured list.
The Mets did not send Raley for an MRI on his inflamed left elbow, a source said, and they hope he’ll miss only the minimum 15 days. Given how much he pitched in the first month, a break might serve him well. But until he returns, the Mets are down to Robertson, Ottavino and Drew Smith in their high-leverage group. Somebody else needs to step up.
5 They’re winning most of their games.
For all that has gone wrong — despite losing five of their past six games — the Mets are 15-12. That is good for a 90-win pace over a full season. That almost surely will not be enough to win the NL East title, but it is a fine enough start as long as April registers as a mediocre month in the bigger picture of their season.
Tim Healey is the Mets beat writer for Newsday. Born on Long Island and raised in Connecticut, Tim has previously worked for the South Florida Sun Sentinel, the Boston Globe and MLB.com. He is also the author of “Hometown Hardball,” a book about minor league baseball in the northeast.
