Why every Mets loss pushes them closer to Steve Cohen's farm system dream
Mets owner Steve Cohen addresses the media before a game against the Brewers at Citi Field on June 28. Credit: Jim McIsaac
MINNEAPOLIS — Nobody with the Mets would dare say as much — at least not publicly — but in the waning weeks of a lost season, every game they lose actually pushes them closer to one of owner Steve Cohen’s overarching goals: an elite farm system.
The subtext is common at this time of year for teams in their unfortunate position. The more they lose, the greater their odds for a better draft pick. The higher their first-round choice, the higher the quality of player they will have access to and the more money they will be allowed to spend to sign amateurs next summer.
Under these circumstances, in this one way, losing benefits the organization, if not those on the field.
For the Mets, however, the stakes are even higher. Among the penalties for having as large a payroll as they have: Their first draft pick is moved back 10 spots. But — but! — if they can sneak into the top six in the draft order, that pick is protected. Their second selection would be bumped back 10 slots instead.
Here is an overview of the Mets’ situation for the 2024 draft, details of the intricate systems involved and how the rest of this season can impact their next big prospect prize.
Their fate will be decided in the draft lottery
Let’s be clear: The Mets’ spot in the first round of the 2024 draft is not determined by their 2023 record. If they finish with the sixth-worst record in the majors, they are not guaranteed the sixth pick in the draft.
Rather, their record determines their odds in a draft lottery, a mechanism new to baseball last year.
The lottery happens at the winter meetings in December. The 18 clubs that don’t make the playoffs are included; each has a chance at winning a lottery pick, Nos. 1-6 in the first round. The worse a team’s record, the higher its odds of a top pick.
MLB moved to this system, also used by the NBA and NHL, to try to discourage tanking, e.g., losing on purpose. The team with the worst record, for example, has only a 16.5% chance of landing the top pick instead of 100%.
What are the Mets’ odds?
It depends on where they finish in the standings. Entering play Saturday, they owned the seventh-worst record in the majors. If that is where they end up, they will have a 5.5% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick and a 42% chance of getting into the top six. Not bad, right?
There is, of course, more than three weeks to go. And the range of outcomes for the Mets still is wide.
Practically speaking, their upper limit probably is the fifth-worst record. If they do some extra losing down the stretch to snag that spot, they would up their top-six chances to 64% — double what they had a few days ago.
Their lower limit is about 12th. That would mean just a 10% chance of a protected pick.
The Mets’ swing is much bigger than normal
This matters more for the Mets than for other clubs because of those luxury-tax penalties. Because their major-league payroll this year is (way) more than $40 million over the first level of the tax, they will get docked 10 spots for their first draft selection next year. But again, the top six choices are protected, tax penalties or no tax penalties.
If they don’t land a top-six pick, the Mets will be 17th at best. They cannot get into the Nos. 7-16 range.
All this is relevant for money reasons, too. Each slot in the draft comes with a “slot value,” or a recommended signing bonus. The amount of cash a club can commit to draft picks is capped based on these slot values.
The No. 6 pick in the draft this year, for example, came with a slot value of $6.63 million. That is a huge number.
The No. 17 pick came with a slot value of $4.17 million.
Those numbers tick up each year, but getting into the top six basically would allow the Mets to spend an additional $2.5 million — at least — to bring high-level talent into their farm system.
That is what Cohen wants.
“Listen, ultimately the path is to create a sustainable farm system,” he said during spring training. “That’s how we’re going to lower our payroll in a way that doesn’t hurt our success. That’s where we ultimately have to go, at least for me, to consider my ownership a success.”
A little consolation, maybe, the next time the Mets’ bullpen blows it or their lineup can’t get a big hit.
Tim Healey is the Mets beat writer for Newsday. Born on Long Island and raised in Connecticut, Tim has previously worked for the South Florida Sun Sentinel, the Boston Globe and MLB.com. He is also the author of “Hometown Hardball,” a book about minor league baseball in the northeast.
