Pete Alonso's new deal with Mets sets up more difficult decisions to come

At the conclusion of a cold war during the coldest months, the Mets got what they wanted: a talented and popular player whom they like back on the roster, on their terms — a short term, specifically.

Pete Alonso got a version of what he wanted, coming away with the highest payday of any first baseman this season at $30 million just days before the start of spring training.

In the end, then, it was something of a win for all involved, most especially the 2025 Mets, who have a loaded lineup and should compete in a difficult division.

This story isn’t over, though.

For Alonso, the greatest homegrown slugger in franchise history, and the Mets, led by Steve Cohen and David Stearns, the two-year, $54 million contract is basically a stopgap, a Band-Aid, a short-term solution. Their agreement — which, critically, allows Alonso to opt out and become a free agent again after the first season — sets up more difficult and potentially awkward decisions next offseason.

Will the Mets be willing to re-sign Alonso a second time? Or might they have their heart set on, say, pending free agent Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or transitioning generally to a younger option? If the Mets go for Guerrero first and Alonso is a consolation prize, what impact will that have on his desire to return?

Start with the obvious: This was not the outcome Alonso expected upon reaching free agency after the Mets’ whirlwind run deep into October. The Mets wound up guaranteeing him only 7% of what they gave Juan Soto ($765 million). He got 33% of what a different Mets front office awarded Brandon Nimmo ($162 million).

Yes, Alonso’s market was weighed down by his pedestrian season — a relative term — that included a career-low 34 home runs, as well as the qualifying offer, the presence of which would have required any other team that signed him to give up a draft pick. With a bounce-back season and no qualifying offer (which a player can receive only once in his career), Alonso should have a better experience next offseason. With decent health, he is extremely likely to test the open market again.

But by then Alonso will be another year older, 31. And in his year-plus as the Mets’ president of baseball operations, Stearns has made clear his stance on players in their 30s. He is loath to give them big-money, long-term deals, in this case in particular prioritizing process and reason over the sentiment that comes with a fan favorite. His philosophy is reflective of an industry-wide shift in thinking that increasingly squeezes out baseball’s middle-aged.

So when mulling the Mets’ first-base preferences for 2026 and beyond, consider these stat lines for 2022-24.

Player A: 475 games, 88 home runs, 294 RBIs, .287 average, .360 OBP, .489 slugging percentage, 138 OPS+.

Player B: 476 games, 120 home runs, 337 RBIs, .243 average, .333 OBP, .493 slugging percentage, 131 OPS+.

Alonso is listed second — way more home runs and more RBIs, a little less productive overall. Guerrero is on top, rating as a slightly better bottom-line hitter (but with much wilder year-to-year swings). It wouldn’t be surprising if Alonso ends up with a better four-year sample by the end of 2025.

But because Guerrero is so much younger — he’ll be a free agent heading into his age-27 season — he will be due much more money and, if recent trends hold, will be much more attractive to Stearns and Cohen. It’s why they went all-out in their pursuits of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Soto the past two winters but didn’t bother with the likes of Corbin Burnes and Max Fried and were lukewarm on Alonso. Performance is key, of course, but context matters — and age is the most important piece of context.

That’s not to say that the Mets are certain to chase Guerrero or certain to be successful in such a pursuit. And there is a lot to be said about keeping the known quantity, and given their history, Alonso and the Mets may be more valuable to each other than each would be to another party. But his negotiations in recent months serve as another useful data point: Stearns has a way of doing things, and Cohen enables him to do it that way.

All of the above won’t be truly relevant for about nine months. But consider it another tentacle stemming from the sides finally coming back together — maybe for just another year.

If these Alonso-Mets talks were exhausting, as Cohen described them last month, or if they involved any hurt feelings, which would be only human, get ready. They may well have set themselves up to do it again next time.

By Tim Healey

timothy.healey@newsday.com@timbhealey

Tim Healey is the Mets beat writer for Newsday. Born on Long Island and raised in Connecticut, Tim has previously worked for the South Florida Sun Sentinel, the Boston Globe and MLB.com. He is also the author of “Hometown Hardball,” a book about minor league baseball in the northeast.