Posada should fall just short of Hall

If you were betting on retirement press conferences, this is the question to lay your money down for: What do you think of your Hall of Fame chances?

Jorge Posada, sitting at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday to officially announce his retirement, got the question. And as most players have done before him, he punted.

“When you compare me to people in the Hall of Fame, we'll see,” Posada said. “I'm really excited to see what happens.”

Well, we go for it on fourth down here at the Numbers Game. Time to  examine Posada's credentials for Cooperstown:

(1) Offense

Posada retires with a .273 average, .374 on-base percentage, .474 slugging percentage (.848 on-base-plus-slugging percentage) with 275 home runs and 1,065 RBIs in 1,829 games and 7,150 plate appearances.

He hit .338 in 2007, the fourth highest batting average in the American League that season. His on-base percentage was top 10 in the league four times. Prior to his retirement, he ranked 25th among all active players with a .374 career OBP. He twice finished in the AL top 10 in OPS and had the 34th highest among active players. His 2,888 total bases were 35th among active players. His 275 home runs place him 165th on the all-time list and his 1,065 RBIs place him 225th all-time.

(2) Postseason

Posada played in the postseason 15 times, practically compiling a full season's worth of stats in the process. Despite some memorable playoff moments (Pedro Martinez in the 2003 ALCS), his numbers do take a dip from his regular-season performance. In 124 games (492 plate appearances), Posada hit .248/.358/.387 (.745 OPS) with 11 home runs and 42 RBIs. He hit .283/.362/.428 with five homers in 51 ALDS games, .224/.368/.374 with four home runs in 45 ALCS games and just .219/.333/.333 with two home runs in 29 World Series games.

(3) Defense (or lack thereof)

Yes, Posada was a catcher. But if he makes the Hall, it will have nothing to do with his abilities behind the plate. He only finished near the top of the league in caught stealing percentage one year, 1998, when he posted a 40 percent rate. He's at just 28 percent for his career and posted years of 30 percent or better just four times. He was top-five in allowing the most stolen bases 11 times. He allowed the most passed balls in two different seasons, and was the active leader with 142 passed balls allowed before retiring. Posada committed 90 errors at catcher, third most among active catchers before his retirement. He led the league in catcher errors in 2001 and 2002. He never won a Gold Glove, which, though a highly subjective award, does show that Posada was viewed unfavorably as a catcher by both stats and reputation.

(4) Awards and Achievements

As a member of a perennial playoff team, Posada received lots of attention from award voters. He went to five All-Star games, had two top-ten MVP finishes (third in 2003) and won five Silver Sluggers. Of course, he also won five World Series (though he wasn't on the 1996 postseason roster). And though most of these achievements are more a reflection of what people thought about him than what he necessarily did, don't discount them. Though newer, advanced stats are starting to play a big role with many voters, awards like these still influence some of the more traditional ballots.

(5) Hall projections

Near the bottom of any players' page on Baseball-Reference.com is a handy area titled “Hall Of Fame Statistics.” The numbers given are various attempts at formulas that project whether a player will make the Hall of Fame depending on criteria such as stats, position, Gold Gloves, MVP awards, etc... Posada appears to fall just short by these standards. One test, the Hall of Fame Monitor, gives Posada a 98, just below the 100 points a likely HOFer would receive. Posada receives only 40 points on the Hall of Fame Standards test, where the likely HOFer would score around 50 points.

(6) Comparison

If elected to the Hall, Posada would be the 17th catcher inducted. His .273 average would be fifth-worst among players we have stats for (several Negro League players have been inducted, and we don't have RBI totals for a few early inductees). But even that number would place him comfortably alongside the likes of Gary Carter (.262), Carlton Fisk (.269) and Johnny Bench (.267). His 275 home runs would be fifth best, behind just Bench (389), Fisk (376), Yogi Berra (358) and Carter (324). Posada is about middle of the pack in RBIs (an admittedly flawed number, but one many voters pay attention to), with Roy Campanella (who only played for 10 seasons), Mickey Cochrane, Rick Ferrell, Ernie Lombardi and Ray Schalk falling behind him. Looking solely at his offense, Posada seems to fit comfortably alongside those enshrined in Cooperstown. However, voters won't look solely at his offense, and nearly every catcher in the Hall also has a sterling defensive reputation.

Oddly enough, Posada's batting numbers only really look particularly impressive when you realize that he did it all while catching. Yet if anything will keep him out of the Hall of Fame, it's likely to be his subpar defense.

The prediction: There's a “Jorge Posada Day” at Yankee Stadium and the longtime backstop's No. 20 is retired by the team. He receives decent support on the Hall of Fame ballot but never gains enough votes to merit induction.

Cody Derespina's “The Numbers Game” is a Newsday app-only exclusive.