Sports

Baseball

New York Yankees

SPPEOPLEV06

In baseball free agency, the people are represented by two separate yet equally important groups. Fans who will do anything to keep their favorite players and fans who have no problem kicking any player to the curb. 
 This is Part 1 of a series looking at upcoming free agents for the Mets and Yankees and arguing for and against keeping them. 
 (Insert the "Law &amp; Order" clang, clang here, just in case you didn't already catch the reference.) 
 The case: 
 Nick Swisher, the Yankees' right fielder for the past four seasons, will be 32 years old at the start of the 2013 season. <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/19854569/word-is-swisher-may-invoke-the-126-million-werth-deal-in-contract-talks">According to a recent report</a>, Swisher could attempt to match Jayson Werth's seven-year, $126 million contract when he hits free agency this winter. The Yankees are attempting to reduce payroll to the luxury tax threshold of $189 million. 
 The facts: 
 Swisher was an All-Star in 2010 and won a World Series with the Yankees in 2009. He's a career .255 hitter with a .359 on-base percentage and .468 slugging percentage, hitting 203 home runs during his nine-year career. He's spent the majority of his time in right field but also has substantial experience at first base and in left and center field. He's even pitched an inning (no runs, one strikeout). 
 The prosecution: 
 Swisher is a good player, but not a great player. His batting average has only crept above .262 twice in his career, and one of those seasons, 2012, isn't over yet. Yes, he has a solid on-base percentage and walks a lot. But he has little speed when he actually reaches base (12 stolen bases, 15 times caught stealing in his career). 
 He's not consistently looked at as one of the better players at his position (as his one All-Star selection and zero silver slugger awards show), and he's never produced an outstanding season (no top-20 finishes for MVP). He's never won a gold glove, and he's prone to spectacular misplays in right field. 
 His playoff numbers are horrendous: He has a .169 overall average in 124 postseason at-bats and only four home runs. 
 The defense: 
 Swisher is very consistent, and that's a pretty difficult attribute to find. 
 He's hit at least 21 home runs, scored at least 81 runs and driven in at least 69 runs from 2005-2011. He's driven in at least 82 runs from 2009-2011 with the Yankees. He has 18 home runs, 57 runs and 69 RBIs this year. 
 His defense is widely underrated. Yes, he can make spectacular misplays, but those are rare, even if they do end up overshadowing his solid fielding. He's posted a 3.8 UZR/150 in right field this season and has a 4.6 career UZR/150 there. (UZR/150 is an advanced stat used to measure a fielder's ability to get to balls hit in his zone.) 
 He's certainly been sub-par in the postseason, but you don't have to go very far back to recall the case of Alex Rodriguez, his own playoff struggles and how he was finally able to shrug them off in 2009. Plus, 124 postseason at-bats isn't a lot to judge a hitter on. 
 One other item in Swisher's favor: He should age well. 
 Generally, a hitter's eye and his power fade much slower than a player's speed and his ability to make contact. Power and patience are already Swisher's strong suits, so it's not out of the question to imagine a 36-year-old Swisher with a .250 average, .360 OBP and 23 home runs. 
 The verdict: 
 Only the most hardcore Nick Swisher fan could blame the Yankees for passing on the excitable player if he truly seeks a contract north of $100 million. But if he decides to settle for a four- or five-year deal? Then the Yankees might have to seriously consider bringing Swisher back. His stats are impressive, he has a very good relationship with the fans and he's adapted to New York well. Plus, it's not as if the Yankees have any outfield prospects knocking on the door just yet. 
 Strong, consistent production may not be worth a mega-deal, but it merits a decent payday for sure.

People v. Nick Swisher

Yankees White Sox Baseball

In baseball free agency, the people are represented by two separate yet equally important groups. Fans who will do anything to keep their favorite players and fans who have no problem kicking any player to the curb. 
 This is Part 2 of a <a href="/sports/baseball/on-base-perception-1.3631854?tags=%20people%20v.">series looking at upcoming free agents</a> for the Mets and Yankees and arguing for and against keeping them. 
 (Insert the "Law &amp; Order" clang, clang here, just in case you didn't already catch the reference.) 
 The case: 
 Chris Young, a right-handed starting pitcher, will be 33 at the start of the 2013 season. He signed a minor-league deal with the Mets this season and has posted a 3-7 record and 4.33 ERA in 14 starts. He was 1-0 with a 1.88 ERA in four starts for the Mets last season. 
 The facts: 
 Young is 52-41 with a 3.79 ERA in nine seasons with the Rangers, Padres and Mets. He was an All-Star for San Diego in 2007. 
 The prosecution: 
 Young is an extreme fly ball pitcher in a park where they just moved the fences in. So far this season, he has a fly ball rate of 58.2 percent, the second highest of his career. The highest was the 66.1 percent he posted in 2011, also with the Mets. Young's rate this season is the highest in the majors -- by far -- among starters with at least 80 innings pitched. The next highest is Phil Hughes, who's at 48.4 percent. 
 His average fastball velocity has decreased every year of his career, from 91.2 mph in 2004 to 84.3 mph this season. Despite the low velocity, Young still throws his “heater” 73.5 percent of the time, mixing it up with a heavily used slider (24.5 percent). The only starters in the majors this season (minimum 80 innings pitched) who throw slower fastballs than Young are Barry Zito (83.8 mph) and knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (83.4 mph). 
 Young has pitched 81 innings this season, and that's his most since 2008. He hasn't made at least 30 starts in a season since 2007, and he's started four games or less in two of the last three seasons. He's been on the disabled list six times since 2007 for a litany of injuries: oblique, strained right forearm, inflamed right shoulder, tightness in his right shoulder, right biceps tendinitis and tightness in his right shoulder. 
 Hoping for any more than veteran insurance from this guy is a risky gamble. 
 The defense: 
 Say what you want about Young's fly ball tendencies, but Jon Niese and Johan Santana both have higher rates of home runs per nine innings. Combine that with the fact that he's walking less batters per nine innings than Santana or Matt Harvey and you have a pretty effective starter on your hands. 
 At a low, low price. 
 Most teams will prize younger, harder throwing pitchers this offseason, and Young could be overlooked, relegated to the proverbial “bargain bin.” But it doesn't matter who or how you get the outs, it just matters that you get the outs. And Young has proven capable of doing that as a solid, back-of-the-rotation starter. 
 Look inside his record and you find this: Young has allowed more than three runs in just four of his 14 starts. He has a 2.71 ERA in his other 10. Four of his losses have come in games where he's allowed three or fewer runs. 
 This guy belongs in a major league rotation. 
 The verdict: 
 The Mets are already running out of rotation spots for the 2013 season. If Johan Santana and Dillon Gee come back healthy, and there's not much reason to think they won't, the pair will join Jon Niese and R.A. Dickey to fill the first four spots. Then you have to consider Matt Harvey. And Collin McHugh. And an expected Zack Wheeler call-up. Plus, that's all assuming the team parts ways with Mike Pelfrey (he's eligible for arbitration, but could be non-tendered). 
 If Young is willing to sign another minor-league deal, he could provide good insurance if one of the injured starters breaks down or Harvey regresses. But any kind of guaranteed deal would be blocking a rotation spot from a younger candidate that could be a part of the Mets' future. 
 For his part, Young would do well to look for a role on a team where the future is now.

People v. Chris Young

spMETS

In baseball free agency, the people are represented by two separate yet equally important groups. Fans who will do anything to keep their favorite players and fans who have no problem kicking any player to the curb. 
 This is Part 3 of <a href="/sports/baseball/on-base-perception-1.3631854?tags=%20people%20v.">our series</a> looking at upcoming free agents for the Mets and Yankees and arguing for and against keeping them. 
 (Insert the "Law &amp; Order" clang, clang here, just in case you didn't already catch the reference.) 
 The case: 
 Mariano Rivera is in his 18th season with the Yankees. He began the year as the team's closer, a role he had held since 1997. But Rivera tore the ACL in his right knee while shagging fly balls prior to a game against Kansas City on May 3. The injury required season-ending surgery. Rivera will be 43 at the start of the 2013 season, and the all-time saves leader has said he plans to pitch. 
 The facts: 
 Rivera is the <a href="http://sports.newsday.com/data/baseball/yankees/mariano-rivera-saves/">all-time leader with 608 career saves</a> and has helped the Yankees win five World Series titles. He's finished in the top five of American League Cy Young voting five times, finished in the top 20 of AL MVP voting six times and been selected to 12 All-Star games. 
 The prosecution: 
 Rivera is a legend, a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer, fan favorite and genuinely nice guy. Which is why it's so difficult to say that it's time for the Yankees to move on. 
 Rivera has done a tremendous job avoiding the effects of Father Time, but now he has to work that magic while also coming back from a serious injury. 
 And though it's been subtle, Rivera has shown signs of decline. His ERA has risen in each of the last five seasons, from 1.40 in 2008 to 2.16 in 2012. Granted, that's still excellent, but any upward trend is never good. 
 Here's a number to be more concerned about: Rivera's ground ball rate hadn't fallen below 51.2 percent since 2003, and the closer has a career 53.2 percent rate. The past two seasons that number has fallen to 46.5 percent and 45.5 percent, respectively. To make up for it, last season his line drive rate ticked up and this season his fly ball rate increased (40.9 percent). Neither is a good outcome, and that fly ball rate is particularly troubling given the small confines of Yankee Stadium. 
 Rivera's fastball was also at its slowest this season, clocking in at just 90.5 mph. His cutter is at a career-worst 90.6 mph. 
 After blowing no more than four saves from 2004-2009, Rivera blew five in 2010 and 2011. He already had one blown save in nine games pitched this season. 
 Rivera's age has led the Yankees to use him more carefully over the last several years. His innings have decreased every season from 2004 (78.1 innings) to 2011 (61.1 innings) – we'll leave 2012 alone because of the early injury. 
 Here's the bottom line: Saying goodbye to Rivera was never going to be easy. Either he went out on the top of his game, making it nearly impossible for a replacement to fill his shoes, or he totally fell apart, making it nearly impossible for fans to watch as their beloved closer became a shell of himself. The May injury was almost a blessing in disguise. It allowed Rafael Soriano to assume the closer role without any real pressure of “replacing” Rivera. 
 The fact that he's had so much success in the role should make it easier for the Yankees to finally bid adieu to the Sandman. 
 The defense: 
 He's Mariano Rivera. 
 Oh, you want some facts, too? 
 Okay, how about the fact that Rivera's 2.16 ERA in 2012 is still lower than his ERA in 2000, 2001, 2002 or 2007? His strikeout per nine innings rate this season was 8.64, still higher than his 8.26 career rate. His 2.16 walks per nine innings in 2012 was still right in line with his 2.04 career rate. 
 Rivera's home run rate from 2010-2011 was actually an improvement over his rate from the three previous seasons, so any worries about Rivera being more susceptible to the long ball are unfounded. 
 Then there's this: Rivera has come back from injuries before. Groin and shoulder problems limited him in 2002. But Rivera went 5-2 with a 1.66 ERA in 2003. 
 Soriano has been excellent this season. But this is the same guy who posted a 4.12 ERA in 2011 and has a reputation for being grumpy when he's not used exclusively as a closer. 
 Why turn your back on a guy who's done nothing but be consistently great throughout his career in favor of a pitcher with an uneven track record? 
 Oh, and there's this: He's Mariano Rivera. 
 The verdict: 
 The decision to bring back or not bring back Rivera may not lie entirely with his wishes, or even the Yankees. 
 Soriano is due to make $14 million next season, but has an opt out and could take a $1.5 million buyout and test the market. He could gamble that his standout 2012 will earn him a lucrative multi-year deal. Or he could decide he doesn't want to take a backseat to Rivera, if the Yankees indeed bring Rivera back. 
 The Rivera decision also has another dimension: It's not entirely about 2013. Rivera may come back and pitch well in 2013. But will he be lights out? And how long will it truly be before he's not effective anymore? 
 Meanwhile, Soriano will be 10 years younger than Rivera at the start of the 2013 season and could be the Yankees' closer for many years to come. 
 It's for that reason that the Yankees shouldn't roll the dice on Rivera returning to form. As much as it hurts, they should cut ties and extend Soriano. 
 Every era has to end. Even for an all-time great like Rivera.

People v. Mariano Rivera

rivera - cropped

In baseball free agency, the people are represented by two separate yet equally important groups. Fans who will do anything to keep their favorite players and fans who have no problem kicking any player to the curb. 
 This is Part 4 of our series looking at upcoming free agents for the Mets and Yankees and arguing for and against keeping them. 
 (Insert the "Law &amp; Order" clang, clang here, just in case you didn't already catch the reference.) 
 The case: 
 <a href="/sports/baseball/on-base-perception-1.3631854/7.3326251?q=curtis+granderson">Curtis Granderson</a> is a 31-year-old centerfielder for the Yankees. The Yankees hold a $15 million club option on him for the 2013 season with a $2 million buyout. The option was originally $13 million, but increased because he finished fourth in MVP voting during the 2011 season. A poor 2012 postseason, however, has made his return to the Yankees somewhat questionable. 
 The facts: 
 Granderson is a three-time All-Star and has twice finished in the top 10 of the American League MVP voting. He has a .262 average, .341 on-base percentage and 210 home runs during his nine-year career. He spent the first six seasons of his career in Detroit before a trade sent him to New York. In 2011 he led the AL in runs (136) and RBIs (119), while also finishing with 41 home runs. He hit 43 home runs in 2012, becoming only the fifth Yankee to hit at least 40 home runs in back-to-back seasons. 
 The prosecution: 
 In Detroit, Granderson was a dynamic player. An above-average centerfielder with speed and pop. He wasn't a star, but he was a solid and dependable second-tier player. 
 Since the trade that made him a Yankee, Granderson has become a two-true-outcomes player: he hits lots of home runs and he strikes out a lot. 
 Prior to coming to New York, Granderson never hit more than 30 home runs, and normally hit in the low-to-mid 20s. He also never had a batting average below .249 in any full season, and managed to hit anywhere from 23-38 doubles per year. 
 But somewhere near the end of his injury plagued first season with the Yankees, 2010, Granderson became seduced by the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium and began to become a home run hitter. After hitting 102 home runs in six seasons in Detroit, he hit 108 in three seasons with the Yankees. The change didn't cause too much worry in 2011 because Granderson maintained a .262 average and .364 OBP while also stealing 25 bases. 
 Then pitchers figured out that Granderson was just taking big hacks, and he stopped getting so many fastballs. His percentage of sliders went up 2.3 percent from 2011 to 2012 and his curveball percentage went up 1.5 percent. At the end of the year Granderson hit .232 and had just a .319 OBP. He followed that up by going 3-for-30 in the postseason, including 0-for-11 in the ALCS. 
 From 2007-2009 with Detroit, Granderson kept his strikeout rate below 20.9 percent. He put more balls in play, and with his speed, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was over .300 in 2007 and 2008. He hit .302 and .280 those years, respectively. With the Yankees, his strikeout rate has risen every year, from 22 percent in 2010 to 24.5 percent in 2011 to 28.5 percent in 2012. He hasn't posted an average over .262 with the Yankees. 
 Despite being one of the leading home run hitters in all of baseball, Granderson posted just a 2.6 WAR, an advanced stat that measures the number of wins a player adds over a replacement-level player. That figure tied him for 90th in MLB for all qualified batters. 
 Then there's Granderson's declining defensive performance. In 2010, he posted a 7.9 UZR/150, an advanced stat that measures a player's ability to get to balls hit in his zone. In 2011 that number dropped to -5.3 and in 2012 it fell to a career-worst -18.2. 
 It seems the Grandy Man actually can't. 
 The defense: 
 We're talking about the New York Yankees and home runs. They go together like peanut butter and chocolate. Granderson is the perfect fit for the Yankees. 
 This is not the 2009 Yankees. This team isn't stocked with superior home run hitters. It has several aging players who can manage anywhere from 15-25 homers. That makes Granderson's presence all the more important. He's a true home run threat, and it's not as if he isn't being productive with his at-bats. He's driven in over 100 runs in each of the last two seasons, also scoring over 100 runs during that time. 
 He's a speed threat, with 47 stolen bases in three seasons as a Yankee, in a lineup full of slower players. 
 And, this past October aside, he's performed in the playoffs. 
 Prior to this season, Granderson hit .312 with two home runs in three playoff series' with the Yankees. He's a .267 postseason hitter with five home runs and 16 RBIs overall, discounting this postseason. 
 Are we really going to run a guy out of town who just led the team in home runs because he had a single bad year in the playoffs? If that was the solution, A-Rod would have been gone after 2004. Or 2005. Or...well, you get the point. 
 Granderson is a valuable asset to the Yankees because he compensates for their current weaknesses: superb power and speed. 
 The Yankees have to keep Curtis. 
 The verdict: 
 This is actually an easier decision for the Yankees than it otherwise would be because of the presence of Brett Gardner. Gardner is an extraordinary fielder and his natural position is center. And he's a major speed threat. 
 With Granderson only a year away from free agency, and prospects of a long-term deal looking shaky (he'll be 33 when he starts the 2014 season), it makes sense for the Yankees to pick up the option—and then trade Granderson. 
 Gardner slides into center field, the Yankees re-sign Ichiro and then plug a free agent power bat into left field on a one-year deal (think a Torii Hunter type). The Yankees save a $15 million price tag for a streaky and subpar-fielding centerfielder, get a player or two in return and revamp an outfield that, for the most part, severely underperformed in the playoffs.

People v. Curtis Granderson

ALCS Yankees Tigers Baseball

In baseball free agency, the people are represented by two separate yet equally important groups. Fans who will do anything to keep their favorite players and fans who have no problem kicking any player to the curb. 
 This is Part 6 of our series looking at upcoming free agents for the Mets and Yankees and arguing for and against keeping them. 
 (Insert the "Law &amp; Order" clang, clang here, just in case you didn't already catch the reference.) 
 The case: 
 Rafael Soriano has <a href="http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/yankees/rafael-soriano-opts-out-of-deal-with-yankees-1.4173757">opted out of the final year</a>&nbsp;of the three-year, $35 million contract he signed before the 2011 season. Soriano is due a $1.5 million buyout. The Yankees' closer in 2012, Soriano can be given a qualifying one-year offer of $13.3 million. If he accepted, it would actually be an $800,000 raise over the 2013 salary ($15 million) he was originally due. He will turn 33 in December. 
 The facts: 
 <a href="/sports/baseball/on-base-perception-1.3631854/7.3326251?q=rafael+soriano">Soriano</a> was an All-Star and received Cy Young and MVP votes as the Tampa Bay closer in 2010, when he was 3-2 with a 1.73 ERA and an AL-high 45 saves. He was signed to help provide a bridge to closer Mariano Rivera and partially struggled in that role during the 2011 season. After Rivera was lost to injury early in 2012, Soriano took over and saved 42 games with a 2.26 ERA. He's expected to be seeking a multi-year contract. 
 The prosecution: 
 The greatest closer in the history of baseball is likely to return to the Yankees next season. Why is Soriano worth an expensive, multi-year pact? 
 Though Rivera has sent mixed signals on his intentions for 2013, most expect him to pitch again, and if he does, he's not going to sign a minor league deal. Rivera's 2012 salary was $15 million, and given his talent and production, he's not likely to take too much of a pay-cut, if any at all. General Manager Brian Cashman is under orders to try and get the Yankee payroll under the $189 million figure by 2014, so adding yet another expensive reliever doesn't seem to fit into those plans. 
 But the reasons to let Soriano walk go beyond money. 
 While he was excellent as a closer in 2012, he was dismal as a set-up man in 2011. He was signed to be the primary link to Rivera, but quickly lost that job to David Robertson. Soriano was 2-3 with a 4.13 ERA in 39.1 innings, spending time on the disabled list. When he was healthy, he was far from a sure thing. 
 If the Yankees believe Rivera will return in 2013, why repeat the unsuccessful experiment of asking Soriano to set-up? 
 <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/20756763/rafael-soriano-expected-to-opt-out-of-yankees-deal-wednesday">According to CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman</a>, Soriano is believed to be seeking a four-year deal. That would make him 36 years old during the final season of that kind of contract. Given the volatility of relievers, and the inherent risks that come with an aging athlete, is that a contract the Yankees—money aside—can afford to offer? 
 No. And that's why Soriano, who did such a good job shutting the door in 2012, now needs to be shown the door. 
 The defense: 
 Yes, most expect Mariano Rivera to return to the Yankees in 2013. 
 Key word: expect. 
 What if he doesn't? Are the Yankees confident that David Robertson could take his place? Robertson, who has been shaky during his previous closing opportunities? 
 And even if Rivera does return, it's only a matter of time before the soon-to-be 43-year-old Sandman decides to retire. 
 Soriano was originally signed—over the objections of Brian Cashman—to be “Rivera insurance.” In 2011 that seemed like folly. In 2012 the move seemed inspired. 
 While Soriano can seem disinterested as a set-up man, there's little denying his excellence in the closer role. When he's been given the ninth inning job, he takes over. He had a 2.97 ERA and 27 saves for the Braves in 2009, 1.73 ERA and 45 saves for the Rays in 2010 and 2.26 ERA and 42 saves for the Yankees in 2012. 
 Bottom line: Soriano does what he was signed to do. 
 And Rivera can't do what he does forever. 
 The verdict: 
 A four-year deal seems out of the question. People have expected Rivera to retire or fade for years, and every time he seems to slip, he proves the doubters wrong. Who's to say he can't keep doing it? 
 And who's to say Soriano, now entering his mid-30s, won't start to lose significant velocity on his fastball? From 2009-2012 his average fastball velocity has decreased each season, from 93.2 mph in 2009 to 92.2 in 2012. 
 A two-year deal or two-year deal with a team option for a third year is far more palatable for the suddenly fiscally conscious Yankees. But even then, it's a tough pill to swallow to invest somewhere around $30 million in two innings of a game. 
 And on the other end, why would Soriano want to return to the Yankees if he doesn't have a clear shot to close? There are plenty of teams in baseball who need a proven, reliable closer. 
 It might be best for both parties if this marriage ends.

People v. Rafael Soriano

153286331

In baseball free agency, the people are represented by two separate yet equally important groups. Fans who will do anything to keep their favorite players and fans who have no problem kicking any player to the curb. 
 This is Part 5 of our series looking at upcoming free agents for the Mets and Yankees and arguing for and against keeping them. 
 (Insert the "Law &amp; Order" clang, clang here, just in case you didn't already catch the reference.) 
 The case: 
 <a href="/sports/baseball/on-base-perception-1.3631854/7.3326251?q=ichiro+suzuki">Ichiro Suzuki</a> is a 39-year-old outfielder for the Yankees. He played mostly right field with the Mariners this season before a July 23 trade sent him to New York, where he saw time in both left and right field. He also has experience in center. Suzuki spent his entire 12-season MLB career with the Mariners before the Yankees obtained him. He made $17 million in 2012 and hasn't made less than $12.5 million since 2004. 
 The facts: 
 A longtime star in Japan, Ichiro won the American League MVP and Rookie of the Year during his first season in MLB, 2001. That year, he hit .350 with 242 hits and 56 stolen bases. He was voted into the All-Star game and won a Gold Glove every year from 2001-2010 and also received MVP votes each of those years except 2005. 
 The prosecution: 
 The problem with Ichiro isn't that you don't know what you're getting – he had radically different batting splits before and after the trade that brought him to New York – it's that you do know what you're getting: a player in decline. 
 From 2009 through the first half of 2012, Ichiro's batting average and on-base percentage fell every year. He hit .272 with a .310 OBP in 2011 as a 37-year-old and was batting .261 with a .288 OBP with the Mariners in 2012. 
 Even after the trade to the Yankees, which briefly made him look like the Ichiro of old, his season numbers are puny: A .307 OBP and .697 OPS. 
 Brian Cashman was looking for lightning in a bottle with Ichiro. He was looking to get a once-great player out of a losing environment and hoped the jolt of a pennant race would wring whatever talent Ichiro had left out of him. 
 That happened. Ichiro played great for the Yankees. But the lightning has already struck. 
 Don't expect it to strike twice. 
 The defense: 
 Ichiro Suzuki was an aging player on a team of younger men in Seattle. A player accustomed to greatness, he had grown used to losing and low expectations. 
 Why wouldn't a player's skills erode in a situation like that? 
 With the Yankees, he was again counted on. There was again a demand to be great. And he responded. 
 In 67 games with the Yankees, Ichiro hit .322 with a .340 OBP and .454 slugging percentage. He stole 14 bases – Ichiro stole 15 bases in 28 MORE games with the Mariners in 2012. He hit five home runs –Ichiro hit four home runs during his 2012 in Seattle. 
 He posted a 16.4 UZR/150 in right field during 2012 and 9.1 UZR/150 in left field. UZR/150 is an advanced stat that measures a player's ability to get to balls hit in his zone. 
 Compare that right field number to another Yankees free agent: Nick Swisher. Swisher posted just a 3.4 UZR/150 in right field, still a positive, but a clearly subpar figure compared to Ichiro, even at his advanced age. 
 Suzuki gives the Yankees everything they're looking for. Defense. Speed in a lineup devoid of it. Contact in a lineup devoid of it. 
 We all know the Yankees can hit home runs. Ichiro is valuable because he brings a different and important skillset to the table. 
 Re-signing Ichiro? That could be the biggest home run of the 2013 season. 
 The verdict: 
 Nick Swisher's time with the Yankees is likely over. The rightfielder is looking for a long-term deal, and the suddenly cost-conscious Yankees don't seem to want to invest heavily in him. 
 That's why Ichiro presents the perfect opportunity. A player who will likely come with a short commitment because of his age, and one who will likely not garner an outrageous salary (due to age and recent performance). 
 When the Yankees traded for Ichiro in July it seemed like a novelty move or, at the least, a modest upgrade. Now it seems like a must to bring Ichiro back for the 2013 campaign.

People v. Ichiro Suzuki

ALDS Yankees Orioles Baseball

In baseball free agency, the people are represented by two separate yet equally important groups. Fans who will do anything to keep their favorite players and fans who have no problem kicking any player to the curb. 
 This is Part 7 of our series looking at upcoming free agents for the Mets and Yankees and arguing for and against keeping them. 
 (Insert the "Law &amp; Order" clang, clang here, just in case you didn't already catch the reference.) 
 The case: 
 Scott Hairston is a 32-year-old outfielder and pinch-hitter who played for the Mets the past two seasons. He made $1.1 million while appearing in 134 games (86 starts) during 2012. A free agent who drew modest interest at the end of last season, Hairston's power surge in 2012 may make him more desirable this offseason. The Mets are expected to try to retain him, and <a href="/sports/baseball/top-free-agent-list-this-winter-1.4185073">Newsday's David Lennon predicts</a> the Yankees will sign him. 
 The facts: 
 <a href="/sports/baseball/on-base-perception-1.3631854/7.3326251?q=scott+hairston">Hairston</a> hit a career-high 20 home runs in 377 at-bats in 2012, hitting .263. He's a career .247 hitter with a .302 on-base percentage and 95 home runs in nine seasons playing for the Mets, Padres, A's and Diamondbacks. He's never been named to an All-Star team and never received any postseason awards. Hairston saw limited action for the Mets in 2011 (132 at-bats), being used in more of a pinch-hitter role. But he was given a more prominent job on the 2012 squad due to his success against left-handed pitching. Hairston batted .286 with 11 home runs against lefties. He can play both outfield corners, has seen time in center each of the last six seasons and started 83 games at second base in 2004. 
 The prosecution: 
 The Mets have not been adept at recognizing when it's time to walk away the last several seasons. They got the best Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo had to give, but still re-signed them to ill-advised deals. They ignored signs of decline from Francisco Rodriguez and gave him a large free agent deal. 
 They shouldn't make the same mistake with Hairston. 
 Hairston played at the peak of his career in 2012. What reason is there to hope he'll do the same in 2013? 
 Hairston's previous career-high in home runs was 17, which he established in 2008 and 2009. He hit 10 in 2010 and seven in 2011 before busting out with 20 last season. Those 20 bombs are the upside, not the norm. And, aside from power, Hairston doesn't offer many positives anyway. 
 His .263 average was the second-highest of his career, nearly tying the .265 mark he set in 2009. He's never had an OBP above .313 in a full season. 
 Hairston grades out as a subpar outfielder, posting a -4.9 UZR/150 in all outfield spots combined in 2012. UZR/150 is an advanced stat that measures a player's ability to get to balls hit in his zone. 
 The Mets are not a team that can afford to waste at-bats on a past-his-prime semi-slugger who's a liability in the outfield and a liability at the plate when he's not swinging for the fences. 
 Hairston's 2012 was one of the highlights of the Mets season. Let him go out on a high note. Or let the Yankees deal with his regression to the mean. 
 The defense: 
 It's probably not a great idea for a team like the Mets—short on offensive talent, particularly in the outfield—to let one of their most productive players walk. 
 Hairston's 20 home runs were third on the team, behind only David Wright and Ike Davis. His .263 average was third behind Ruben Tejada and Wright, among players who had at least 300 plate appearances. As a part-time player, his 57 RBIs were tied with Lucas Duda for fourth most—and Duda had 61 more plate appearances than Hairston. Hairston's 2.0 WAR was third on the team behind Wright and Tejada. 
 Bottom line: Hairston was one of the team's top performers in 2012. And a deeper look reveals even more reasons for him to stick around. 
 For a team that lacks righty power, aside from Wright, Hairston is the perfect fit. His career average against righties is .229, and he has just a .704 on-base plus slugging percentage when facing right-handed pitchers. Against lefties, his average jumps to .276 and his OPS bulges to .825. 
 He's adept at coming off the bench and actually performed better in that role during 2012. As a starter he had a .264 average, .291 OBP and .785 OPS. As a sub, he hit .255 with a .345 OBP and .913 OPS. 
 Plus, he has a reputation as a good, veteran clubhouse presence--an important component on a younger team. 
 The Mets are not in the position to be casting off productive hitters because of slight flaws. Just because a piece of fruit is bruised doesn't mean it's no longer sweet. And just because Hairston has limitations doesn't mean the Mets should overlook his positive attributes. 
 Re-signing Hairston should be a top priority for the Mets. 
 The verdict: 
 Hairston is the type of player who can fit well on a championship-caliber club. He's a platoon bat against southpaw pitchers, a versatile—if unspectacular—outfielder and a good force in the clubhouse. 
 He's all of those things to the Mets, too, of course. But his value is mitigated by the team's chances at contention. A lefty platoon partner can push a contender over the edge, whereas it can only make the Mets seem a little less embarrassing. 
 If the Mets believe they will truly be in the playoff hunt next year—and few see the team as ready to chase a Wild Card slot—then Hairston is a worthwhile gamble. Otherwise, he's a luxury. And the Mets could better utilize the money it would take to sign him by fixing a severely leaky bullpen, or investing in amateur talent. 
 For the best interests of the Mets and Hairston, it's better to let him walk.

People v. Scott Hairston

spMETS20dlp

In baseball free agency, the people are represented by two separate yet equally important groups. Fans who will do anything to keep their favorite players and fans who have no problem kicking any player to the curb. 
 This is Part 8 of our series looking at upcoming free agents for the Mets and Yankees and arguing for and against keeping them. 
 (Insert the "Law &amp; Order" clang, clang here, just in case you didn't already catch the reference.) 
 The case: 
 Russell Martin is a catcher who will be 30 years old at the start of the 2013 season. <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/yankees-martin-discussing-extension.html">He turned down a reported three-year extension</a> worth about $20 million from the Yankees prior to the 2012 season, as he wanted a raise over his $7.5 million salary in 2012. Non-tendered by the Dodgers after the 2010 season, he signed as a free agent with New York and has played in the Bronx the past two seasons. 
 The facts: 
 <a href="/sports/baseball/on-base-perception-1.3631854/7.3326251?q=russell+martin">Martin</a> is a three-time All-Star with a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger (both in 2007). He finished ninth in the National League Rookie of the Year voting in 2006. In seven seasons, he's hit .260 with a .351 on-base percentage and 93 home runs. With the Yankees, Martin has a .224 average with a .317 OBP and 39 home runs. 
 The prosecution: 
 Even after trading prized catching prospect Jesus Montero last offseason, the Yankees still have a good deal of organizational depth at catcher. Francisco Cervelli and <a href="http://newsday.sportsdirectinc.com/baseball/mlb-players.aspx?page=/data/mlb/players/player42660.html">Chris Stewart</a> both have considerable MLB experience, and the Yankees claimed Giants catcher Eli Whiteside off waivers on Tuesday to add to that veteran group. 
 Austin Romine, a well thought of receiver, is fully recovered from a back injury which sidelined him most of last season, and his track record in the minors suggests he can hit well enough to stick in the majors. The 2012 Minor League Baseball Analyst describes him as “an athletic backstop” who “makes contact with a short, simple stroke.” 
 Deeper in the minors waits Gary Sanchez, a power-hitting backstop whose potential may outweigh that of Montero when all is said and done. He hit 18 home runs split between Single-A and Single-A Advanced last season, driving in 85 runs with a .290 average. The Analyst notes that he “owns a high ceiling with ability to smash balls to all parts of park.” 
 So with this depth at the position, and with the Yankees under an ownership mandate to lower payroll, why would the Yankees give a multi-year deal to a catcher who's regressed offensively? His batting average has dropped each of the last five seasons, from .293 in 2007 to .211 in 2012. His OBP has fallen each of the last four seasons, from .385 in 2008 to .311 in 2012. 
 The Yankees already have several good defensive catchers in the organization. They can spend their money better than by committing millions to another one who also has hitting troubles. 
 The defense: 
 Despite the warm bodies the Yankees have on their roster, “depth at catcher” is a deceiving term. 
 The combined career average for Stewart, Whiteside and Cervelli is .236 (314-for-1330). That group has hit 19 home runs in 540 games. Russell Martin surpassed that total in 133 games in 2012. 
 The Yankees have several backup catchers, but no clear No. 1. Romine is an unknown, a prospect, but not one who anyone expects to be the catcher of the future. Sanchez is still a few years away. 
 The free agent market at catcher isn't particularly attractive, filled mostly with retreads and sprinkled with the likes of Mike Napoli (who also had a down offensive year) and A.J. Pierzynski, who isn't well-liked and will be 36 years old in 2012. 
 Compare those choices to Martin, a superb defender in his prime who the Yankees pitching staff enjoys working with. A catcher who hit 21 home runs in 2012 and crushed 18 homers the previous season. A good baserunner who managed 14 stolen bases the past two seasons, despite manning a stereotypically slow-footed position. 
 Martin will never be the cleanup man in the lineup. But it's not time for him to clean out his locker either. 
 The verdict: 
 If the Yankees are serious about cutting payroll, then they're going to have to let players like Martin go. 
 The $7 million or so that he'll cost could be put to better use shoring up an uncertain outfield, or investing in veteran, proven backup infielders to spell the aging Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. Martin's defensive job can be done by several players in the organization already. His home runs will be missed, but his inability to hit for any kind of respectable average the past two seasons may have sealed his ticket out of town. 
 And opened up a spot for a new backstop.

People v. Russell Martin

russell martin cropped

People v. free agents

Newsday

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