Eli's performance stacks up with Peyton
Peyton Manning of the Colts and brother Eli of the Giants exchange words after the Colts' 38-14 win in Indianapolis. (Sept. 19, 2010) Credit: Getty Images
Conventional wisdom is a funny thing.
We all know that Rob Lowe is an actor, not a well-sourced NFL scoop machine. Yet, we were all kind of intrigued when Lowe tweeted that Peyton Manning would retire last week. He didn't hang up his helmet, of course, continuing (for now) the career of a quarterback that conventional wisdom tells us -- with the support of stats -- is one of the best of all time.
But conventional wisdom has its limits. And sometimes when a player reaches the heights that four-time MVP Manning has, we begin to deify him, protecting him from any attempts to compare him to players deemed more “mortal.”
This extends even to his brother, Eli, an honest-to-goodness star who's on the verge of perhaps winning his second Super Bowl. Conventional wisdom says that there's no comparing the two or rather, any attempt at comparison would only end with Eli coming up extremely short. Eli's a very good quarterback, the theory goes, but his face doesn't belong on the Mount Rushmore of elite active quarterbacks.
When you throw that theory out the window, however, and actually begin to size up Manning vs. Manning, the conclusion proves closer than you might think.
(1) Regular Season
This is where Peyton really makes his money, and a cursory look at his stats show just how dominant a player he can be the first 17 weeks of the schedule. In the 13 seasons during which he's started a game, Peyton has thrown for at least 4,000 yards 11 times. He's thrown for 399 touchdowns and has a 64.9 completion percentage.
But if we're going to compare these two players, then let's scale back the time frame to the first seven full seasons of each player's career (Eli has been in the league eight years, but started just seven games his rookie year). That gives us a span of 112 games.
Even here, Peyton's numbers look better at first blush. He has a 63.5 completion percentage (2,464-for-3,880), while Eli is at 58.9 (2,196-for-3,724). But consider this: for Eli to have matched his brother's percentage, he would have needed to complete just 168 more passes. That breaks down to an extra 1.5 completions per game. That doesn't seem as vast a chasm separating the two, does it?
Both players threw 120 interceptions during their first seven seasons, but while Eli threw for just 179 touchdowns, Peyton had 216. A 37-touchdown difference is legitimate. However, the Giants' running game was much more productive and a bigger part of the offense than the rushing attack in Indianapolis.
In other words, it would make sense that some of the touchdowns Peyton threw for with the Colts ended up as rushing scores for Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs with the Giants. The Colts averaged 1,725 rushing yards per year during Peyton's first seven seasons, scoring 90 total touchdowns and averaging about 13. The Giants, meanwhile, averaged 2,070 yards on the ground during Eli's seven full seasons, scoring 113 touchdowns and averaging 16 per season.
There is one area in regular-season play where Eli definitely comes out ahead. He's averaged 12.08 yards per completion, while Peyton has just 11.9.
(2) Playoffs
In terms of sheer winning, this is Eli's arena. He's 7-3 so far (with one BIG game to go) and was a Super Bowl MVP. In his first seven years, Peyton was just 3-5.
Peyton had a 60.4 completion percentage in the playoffs during his first seven seasons (171-for-283), threw 14 touchdowns and had eight interceptions. Eli has a 59.8 completion percentage (189-for-316) with 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Pretty comparable.
But where Eli throws for more yards per completion during the regular season, Peyton wins that battle in the playoffs. Peyton has a 12.7 YPC mark in the postseason, Eli has an 11.7.
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Putting Eli in the same company as his brother doesn't detract from what Peyton has done, and it doesn't necessarily give Eli more credit than he deserves. Eli isn't as flashy with his passing as many of the quarterbacks that conventional wisdom tells us make up the cream of the quarterback crop, but he's quietly compiled a resume that should allow him to stand next to his iconic brother and not come up too short. Matter of fact, sometimes he stands a bit taller.
And this is only the first seven full years of his career. Who knows what waits in the seasons to come? Who knows what waits in two weeks?
Cody Derespina's “The Numbers Game” column is a Newsday app-only exclusive.
