Numbers: Should the Rangers be worried?
Henrik Lundqvist of the New York Rangers prepares to play against the Buffalo Sabres at Madison Square Garden. (March 23, 2012) Credit: Jim McIsaac
The Kings beat the Canucks, 4-2, on Wednesday night and a host of Rangers fans felt their hearts begin to race.
Not that that series means much to the Rangers at this early stage of the playoffs, but the reality of a No. 8 seed beating a No. 1 seed was an unsettling reminder of playoff cruelty to a fan base that wants to continue proudly donning Henrik Lundqvist jerseys for weeks to come.
The Rangers, who finished first in the Eastern Conference, begin their series against No. 8 Ottawa on Thursday night and there is certainly some consternation among fans and pundits alike, which is odd, because on paper the series is an easy win for the Rangers. They have the superior record at 51-24-7, good for 109 points. Ottawa finished 41-31-10 to rack up 92 points. The Rangers have home ice advantage in the playoffs.
But Ottawa was one of the Rangers' toughest opponents this season, beating them three times in four meetings and making a bid to sweep the season series. The Senators were one of just three teams (Penguins, Devils) to beat the Rangers at least three times this season. And that doesn't bode well for the postseason. One thing that tends to be agreed on by lovers and haters of stats is this: a long season is the best way to decide the superior team, while a short playoff series can level the playing field (or ice).
A short series wipes the regular-season slate clean and smoothes the way for an upset. No Zamboni required.
And the 2011-12 history of Rangers/Senators makes it seem like this could be anything but a quiet, easy first round:
- Lundqvist had just four games this season where he faced over 40 shots on goal. The Rangers only lost one of them -- Oct. 29 to Ottawa in a 5-4 shootout. Ottawa scored three times in the last 10:42 of regulation to tie the score at four.
- That game was the first of two this season where Lundqvist couldn't protect a lead against the Senators. Lundqvist didn't exactly make it easy for himself during his win either. On Nov. 9, the Rangers were leading 3-1 in the third period when he allowed a goal with 10:12 left before locking the game down.
- Lundqvist wasn't as successful on Jan. 12, when he allowed three goals during a 3-0 loss.
- Martin Biron was in net when the Rangers lost, 4-1, to Ottawa on March 8. But if you expect Biron to contribute largely one way or the other in this series, then the Rangers have likely already lost.
- Then there's the Senators' two top forwards, Milan Michalek and Jason Spezza, who seem to turn up their game every time they face the Rangers. Michalek scored five goals in four games against New York. He scored 30 games in 73 other games this season. Spezza also scored five goals against the Rangers, but had only 29 goals in his 76 other games.
History certainly suggests the Rangers' superb regular season should at least lead to them getting over this first playoff hump:
- The Rangers have 54 playoff appearances in 85 seasons and have finished first in their conference seven times.
- Of those seven, they've only lost twice in the first round and that was during the 1926-27 and 1941-42 seasons, when the first round meant the semifinals.
Cody Derespina's "The Numbers Game" is a Newsday app-only exclusive.
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