Numbers show Rangers really miss Adam Fox, and not just on the power play

LOS ANGELES – Igor Shesterkin and Adam Fox, who are on injured reserve and long-term injured reserve, respectively, with lower-body injuries, have been skating on their own lately, which is certainly good news for the free-falling Rangers.

It’s been easy to see how much the Rangers (21-24-6) miss Shesterkin – they have lost seven of eight games (1-6-1) since he left the ice in the first period against the Utah Mammoth on Jan. 5. Backup goaltender Jonathan Quick, who turned 40 on Wednesday, has lost six of those (0-5-1) and 12 straight overall (0-10-2).

But losing Fox has hurt, too. The Jericho native is the Rangers’ best defenseman, and he had been having a good season before missing 21 of the last 24 games due to injuries, first a shoulder that kept him out 14 games from Dec. 2-29, before he returned for three, then the lower-body problem that's caused him to miss the last seven.

There’s a tendency with Fox to just look at how the power play is going and stop there when it comes to the effect he has on the team. But the undersized Fox (5-11, 185) is a sneaky good defender, too. And without him, the Rangers’ team defense has slid badly for the past month-and-a-half.

They’ve allowed 88 goals in the last 24 games (an average of 3.67 goals-against per game) and 78 in the 21 games Fox has missed (3.71). That’s more than a goal per game higher than what they allowed in their first 27 games of the season (2.63 GAPG) with Fox in the lineup every night.

Meanwhile, in those first 27 games, they scored 72 goals, an average of 2.67, and in the 21 games Fox has missed, they’ve scored 56 goals, also an average of 2.67. So, they’ve scored the same average number of goals with Fox in or out of the lineup, but they’ve allowed a goal per game more with him out.  .

“Foxy is an elite player. I don't think he gets the credit he deserves for how hard he competes defensively, so I think that's part of it. He’s not an easy guy to replace,’’ coach Mike Sullivan said Tuesday, when asked if the team’s defensive struggles are directly caused by Fox’s absence. “But that's not the only reason. I think we've got to make more of a commitment to playing defense. We have to value defense.’’

Not having Fox to partner with Vladislav Gavrikov, who joined the team as a free agent last summer, on the top defense pair, has forced Sullivan and assistant coach David Quinn to move 24-year-old Braden Schneider up from the third pair to partner with Gavrikov. As the top defense pair, Gavrikov-Fox and Gavrikov-Schneider are playing against the opposing team’s top line every night.

And the comparison between the two pairs has been stark.

According to the analytics website Natural Stat Trick, in the 494 minutes, 22 seconds Gavrikov and Fox have played together at 5-on-5, the Rangers have outscored their opponents 17-12; outshot them 208-199; had more shot attempts (520-416); created more scoring chances (240-160) and more high-danger chances (103-54), and had more expected goals (22.83 to 15.78).

In 382:47 with Gavrikov-Schneider on the ice at 5-on-5, the Rangers have been outscored 25-11; outshot 186-142; out-attempted 395-326, and the scoring chances have been at a 188-155 disadvantage.  The high-danger chances are at 72-68. 

And the expected goals? 18.22 to 13.94 for the opponents.

The Gavrikov-Schneider pair had a particularly tough night in Tuesday’s 4-3 loss to the Kings. Schneider made a pinch on the game’s opening shift that allowed the Kings to break out and come away with a two-on-one break against Gavrikov. That resulted in Adrian Kempe scoring off a give-and-go to put L.A. up 1-0, just 18 seconds into the game.

Then, 42 seconds after Will Cuylle had tied it at 1 at 8:18 of the first period, Gavrikov made a cross-slot pass to Jonny Brodzinski that was stolen by Kevin Fiala in the low slot and easily converted against a helpless Quick from seven feet away to put the Kings back up, 2-1.

in total, the Rangers were outscored 3-1, outshot 11-7, and out-attempted 25-9 when Gavrikov-Schneider were on the ice in 5-on-5 situations.

On Monday, following the 5-3 loss to Anaheim, Schneider, who had been minus-2, and whose giveaway resulted in a power play goal that night, spoke about the need to play better at the defensive end.

“We need to do a bit better job executing, especially in the second period,’’ he said. “I know for myself… you're at the end of a shift, but you’ve got to make a play and get the puck out.’’

Schneider’s numbers away from Gavrikov have been more stable. When he has been with his other most frequent partners this season – Urho Vaakanainen, Carson Soucy and Matthew Robertson – the goals for/against have been 16-16.

His numbers next to Gavrikov, however, show that he’s clearly not Fox.