Iceland volcano may upset Europe for months
Even as Europe's dormant airports sputter back to life, prudent travelers should ask: What if it happens again? Because it might. Over and over again, for weeks, perhaps months, scientists say.
The last eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull, in 1821, lasted off and on for 13 months - but back then there were no jet engines to get clogged up from volcanic residue.
What should the world brace for if ash clouds wash over European skies intermittently for six months or a year, repeatedly closing airports with just a few hours warning? The crucial tourist industry will be devastated. Supermarkets will have less out-of-season produce. And everything will be more expensive. Europe's recovery from the economic recession likely will be set back to zero. Railways and roads will be overloaded with freight and people opting for more reliable means of travel.
The psychological effects of uncertainty could be numbing. As long as the volcano keeps rumbling, few people are likely to willingly risk more nightmarish delays camped out at airports or trapped in overpriced hotels.
THE PROS
Optimists will see benefits in a slower pace of life and the excuse to pass up yet another business conference. Vacations will be closer to home.
The climate, too, might benefit from the absence of polluting aircraft in the sky, though the cancellation of about 100,000 flights would amount to just a blip on the world's carbon emissions.
National railways are enjoying a boom. Extra trains are running from Moscow and Madrid and all points in between. Eurostar added 33 trains last week carrying 165,000 passengers from Britain to the continent - 50,000 more than usual.
THE CONS
Economically, however, the picture would be generally grim. Travel and tourism account for up to 5 percent of Europe's economic output. Even if the number of travelers drops by just one person in five, Europe can scrap its hoped-for return to growth this year, said economic analyst Vanessa Rossi.
"If it persists, it's quite chaotic," said Rossi, of Chatham House, a London research institute. "This is absolutely bad news at the wrong time. But nobody chooses a volcano to erupt."
Airlines, still struggling to return to profits, will be the big losers. The International Air Transport Association calculated the airlines lost $200 million a day during the first five days of the volcanic crisis.
