Summer travel costs and crowds: What to expect

Welcome to summer, when everyone and their uncle tries to get out and see new corners of the country or explore new parts of the world.

And sometimes, unfortunately, that uncle isn’t the most seasoned globe-trotter.

"Travel volume is significantly up in the summer, but especially the mix of travelers tends to be more sporadic vacation travelers who are less experienced," said Scott Keyes, founder of the flight-shopping service Going. "All of this sort of slows the system down so all the lines and everything take quite a bit longer."

In addition to all the standard complications, this summer could bring some new wrinkles. Here’s what travelers should know.

Expect disruptions

Summer can be a miserable time to travel, with weather delays most common in July and crowds swelling to peak numbers.

Add days of massive disruptions at the busy Newark airport, due in part to factors that aren’t expected to resolve until June, and the result could be an annoying beginning or end to a vacation.

Experts say travelers should take standard precautions for flying during busy travel stretches: choosing the first flight of the day when possible, carrying bags on instead of checking them and getting to the airport with plenty of time.

"I am such a big supporter of getting to the airport early, early, early," said Christie Hudson, a spokesperson for Expedia Group.

This year, it might also be smart to avoid Newark Liberty International Airport for direct flights or connections if possible. Travel analyst Henry Harteveldt told The Washington Post this month that travelers might consider flying to or from other New York City-area airports, or landing in Philadelphia, then taking a train, bus or rental car to northern New Jersey.

"Less convenient, but it may ultimately be a bit more reliable," Harteveldt said.

Hayley Berg, lead economist for the travel booking site Hopper, said air travelers should consider adding travel insurance that covers flight disruptions.

"Newark is not alone," she said. "There are shortages and staffing challenges at airports all over the world."

Remember your Real ID

So far, the long-anticipated arrival of the Real ID mandate on May 7 — which requires domestic travelers to use a compliant state-issued identification or alternative, such as a passport, at security checkpoints — does not appear to be causing airport chaos.

The Transportation Security Administration has said it will warn people who don’t have a proper ID and pull them for extra screening, which could cause delays.

What does this mean for summer travelers? Even if fliers have the necessary documents, seasonally crowded airports could see longer waits than usual.

"It may get stricter as Real ID has been implemented now, so if you don’t have your Real ID you’re going to want to get that," said Hudson, the Expedia spokesperson. It can take more than a week for states to mail the permanent card, and TSA doesn’t accept temporary ones. Passports take even longer to process: four to six weeks in general, or two to three for people who pay more for faster service.

"Be planning these things now," Hudson said.

Get a break on some prices

Your airfare may cost less this summer than last year, though not by much. Your hotel or rental car? Probably not going to see much of a break on those.

Berg said in her summer outlook that round-trip domestic flights are averaging $265 a ticket, a 3% drop from last year and the lowest prices for summer airfare since 2021.

Plane tickets are lower than last year for flights to most of the rest of the world, too, averaging $847 for Europe, $1,339 for Asia, $680 for South America and $421 for Mexico and Central America, according to Hopper. Prices for flights to Canada are down a whopping 25%, reaching an average of $305 as many Canadians avoid travel to the United States in protest of President Donald Trump’s rhetoric and tariffs.

Berg’s summer outlook said the price of a hotel stay is averaging about $237 a night, similar to last year’s.

"It’s high," said Berg. "Really we haven’t seen much relief on hotel prices since the pandemic."

Rental cars, too, are in line with the previous year at about $47 a day.

Berg said travelers can save the most money by traveling in early June or late August and September, and by flying and booking hotels in the middle of the week rather than on the weekend.

Anticipate crowds

It’s not clear yet whether this summer will be record-breaking levels of busy — or just the standard amount of slammed.

Last year, the trade group Airlines for America predicted that U.S. airlines would carry 271 million passengers globally during the summer, an increase of more than 6% year-over-year. The organization’s 2025 forecast has not been released, but American Airlines said it will operate nearly 5% more flights this summer than last.

Over the Memorial Day holiday weekend, the traditional kickoff to summer, AAA expects a record 45.1 million people to travel at least 50 miles from home. That’s a 3% increase compared with the holiday in 2024; the record was 44 million people in 2005, according to a AAA news release.

Pay up for formerly free bags

The era of "bags fly free" on Southwest — once a signature perk for the low-cost airline — is ending for flights booked after May 27. That means summer travelers have a couple more weeks to book flights for the summer or beyond with free checked luggage still included.

But those who buy airfare after the deadline will need to pay up, unless they have enough loyalty status, pay for an expensive seat or hold a Southwest credit card. The airline hasn’t said what it will charge for checked bags, but it said fees "will align with industry standards." Most airline bag fees start at $35.

Keyes, the Going founder, said the policy could lead to holdups if longtime customers arrive at the airport without realizing they need to pay.

"That can add a certain amount of delays at check-in," he said. And experts have warned that more travelers on the airline will try to shift their stuff into free carry-ons.

"With so many more people trying to avoid checking a bag on Southwest, that’s going to slow their boarding time," Katy Nastro, a spokeswoman for Going, told The Post in March.