The Logic of Booking Air Travel Has Changed

Let’s say you Rip-Van-Winkled through the last two years. What about the travel industry would surprise you most? The fact that travel credit cards now offer few travel benefits? Or that the Federal Aviation Administration has developed an “Unruly Passenger Toolkit?”

You might be even more surprised by how the entire logic of booking a flight has changed.

The conventional air travel booking wisdom used to be roughly this:

• Book well in advance.
• Make firm plans.
• Book basic economy when you don’t need bells and whistles.

Not any more.

The rise of the last-minute traveler

In the Before Times, travelers would start booking holiday travel in the summer. That idea seems somewhat ludicrous in the COVID era.

Travelers booked flights 38 days in advance in February 2022, on average, down from 50 days in February 2019, according to data from Hopper, a travel booking app.

The number of travelers booking one week in advance skyrocketed in 2021 and 2022 compared with 2019 and 2020. And the number booking more than 16 weeks in advance has dwindled to almost nothing.

Basically, more travelers are booking closer to the date of departure. Part of this shift is due to the changing certainty of plans, but another factor is at play. Airlines now have much more flexible cancellation policies, which means that it’s easier to book a last-minute flight and cancel it if plans change.

Follow your whims

Last year, airlines (mostly) removed change and cancellation fees for main cabin fares. This seemingly small adjustment had a big impact on how to think about booking airfare.

The old logic rewarded those who preferred to make firm plans. Booking a flight was often the linchpin upon which all the other travel plans depended. But now that plane tickets can be changed more easily on more airlines, making firm plans is no longer necessary. In fact, it often doesn’t make sense.

For example, you might be wary about booking travel to Europe later this year. With COVID-related rules for international travel shifting constantly, making solid plans is more difficult.

But with flexible booking options, you don’t have to know exactly what will happen. You can book a flight to Europe and, if restrictions make the trip difficult or impossible, you can change or cancel your ticket for another destination.

This flexibility comes with a few caveats. First, most airlines won't issue a refund for canceled tickets, but rather a voucher for future travel. This policy creates an incentive to book with an airline that will offer good backup options in case plans change. Second, making last-minute changes to a ticket could still cost money since you’ll have to cover the price difference between the original and new fare.

And finally, changes and cancellations aren't allowed for most basic economy fares.

(Almost) always avoid basic economy fares

Basic economy fares offer a way for regular airlines to compete with ultra-low-cost ones like Spirit and Frontier in search results. They're bare-bones fares that don’t include perks like seat assignments or elite qualifying miles. They used to offer a way for shoestring-budget travelers who didn’t care about these perks to score a deal.

Not so much anymore.

Because regular (nonbudget) airlines eliminated change fees on main cabin fares, basic economy tickets are now even worse. If your plans change and you hold a basic economy ticket, you’ll have to eat the entire fare and book a new ticket.

Even without the current environment of uncertainty, this wasn't a trade-off worth taking. Paying more for a main cabin seat is a no-brainer for anyone who isn’t completely confident in their travel plans (and who is?).