Analysts: Consumer spending to stay flat

As retailers head into the back-to-school season, retail analysts are expecting consumer spending to remain flat or increase slightly with shoppers continuing to use some recession-period strategies because of the uncertain economy.

"Nobody's rushing out to spend," said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst for The NPD Group, a Port Washington-based market research firm. "We're spending more out of necessity than out of discretion."

Families with children in grades K-12 will spend an average of $603.63 on apparel, school supplies and electronics, almost the same as last year's average of $606.40, according to a survey from National Retail Federation, a national retail trade organization. And college students and their parents say they plan to spend an average of $808.71 this year, down from last year's $835.73, according to the survey.

Cohen forecasts back-to-school spending will increase 2.5 percent nationally and 3.5 percent to 4 percent for Long Island.

"I think a lot of consumers are going to hold off and wait to shop until absolutely necessary," said Christina Bieniek, a New York-based retail strategist for consulting firm Kurt Salmon. "That's driven by macro factors in the world; it's still costing a lot to fill up, and then there's the looming debt crisis. You can't turn on the TV or read a newspaper without hearing about that."

As for shopping strategies, most consumers said they would shop in waves. They said they would put off clothes shopping closer to the start of school, buying just a few items to freshen up their children's wardrobes and shopping again in the fall. And many planned to research sales and compare prices on the Internet and in newspaper circulars.

Bernadette Bissoondial, a high school teacher from Bellmore with boys ages 5 and 6, said she already bought markers, scissors, pencils and a lunch box that were on sale at several mass retailers, most of them brand-name items. Two years ago, she said, when Gap had an $8 winter jacket sale, she bought a supply of winter jackets to take her boys through four winters.

"I could get a cheaper brand of markers, but I buy Crayola brand because they are going to last the whole year," she said. "I want to spend my money smarter."

Consumers, however, likely won't see deeper discounts or more sales this year, retail experts said. In the last few years retailers have learned to manage their inventories better, said Kathleen Herrmann, area director of marketing at Roosevelt Field and the Mall at The Source in Westbury.

"I think they've used the past two years as guidelines of how much of each item they need to have so there isn't that big blowout at the end of the season," Herrmann said.And shoppers like Elaine Monahan are aware of retailers' tight inventories. Monahan, 39, a Long Beach teacher who said she will wait until the very end for her back-to-school shopping, went into Justice at the Roosevelt Field Mall looking to buy shorts for her 9-year-old daughter, Kelly, but also bought pants that were not on sale.

"I love a sale when I get lucky but I bought the pants, which were not on sale, because if I waited, they'd be gone," Monahan said.