Black Friday weekend's prominence slips as in-store traffic falls, online sales hit record
Black Friday weekend continues to lose its grip on holiday season prominence.
High inflation, worries about a possible recession, and retailers offering discounts weeks earlier led more consumers to skip malls and shopping centers on Black Friday, retail experts said.
Online sales have hit some record highs since last week, with Cyber Monday spending hitting a new peak of $11.3 billion. But the annual percentage increases for online sales during the five-day period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday were the smallest on record, excluding some declines last year amid the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Adobe.
“There’s just so many dynamics right now. What’s been so surprising to us is how the consumer has continued to spend [in October]. If it turns out that Black Friday holiday shopping is meaningfully up, adjusted for inflation, that would be a really big surprise given the financial pressure and how much we’re seeing savings decline at this point,” said Sarah Wyeth, retail sector lead at S&P Global Ratings, a Manhattan-based financial analysis company.
The five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday are still regarded as an indicator for how retailers will fare over the whole holiday season — November and December — but the period continues to lose its significance.
Some of the decline in foot traffic in stores over the weekend was due to consumers having taken advantage of discounts retailers offered weeks before Black Friday to help clear high inventory levels.
“People have bought early. There were additional Prime days that Amazon put in. Target and Walmart did some special promotions to start to get shoppers shopping in October,” Wyeth said.
Foot traffic on Black Friday fell 2.3% at indoor malls, 3.9% at outlet malls and 0.5% at open-air shopping centers compared with the same day last year, according to Placer.ai, a Los Altos, California-based firm that analyzes location data from mobile devices.
Only two of eight business categories saw increases in foot traffic.
Beauty and spa businesses had the largest foot traffic increase, 14.6%, while discount and dollar stores had an increase of 1.1%, Placer.ai said.
Several shoppers at Roosevelt Field in Garden City said they expected there to be more doorbusters and other sales on Black Friday.
“[I saw] 30% off. I can get that any time of the year on Columbus Day or whatever. But I’m looking for more of the 50% off, the extra 20% off for coming early. I’m not seeing that this year,” said Karen Vallone, a Hauppauge resident shopping at the mall on Black Friday morning.
National data on in-store sales results for Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday is still rolling in.
One source, Mastercard SpendingPulse, said that in-store sales on Black Friday increased 12% compared with the same day last year, but the data is not adjusted for inflation.
Data on online spending shows ecommerce sales increases from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday were the smallest since Adobe began tracking the data in 2014, excluding some declines last year amid the pandemic, according to the San Jose, California-based software company, which does not adjust its sales data for inflation.
“We suspect it’s in large part due to early discounts pulling up [spending] that would have occurred around Cyber Week, as well as the uncertain economic environment as shoppers contend with elevated prices offline,” said Vivek Pandya, lead insights analyst at Adobe.
Here is how online shopping stacked up nationwide, Adobe said:
Black Friday’s online sales totals rose 2,3% to a record $9,12 billion compared with the day last year, By comparison, online sales on Black Friday rose 23,6% in 2018 and 19,6% in 2019, , Adobe’s Small Business Saturday data, which includes all sizes of businesses, showed an online sales increase of 2,6% to $4,59 billion, However, the same day had a 25,4% increase in online sales in 2018 and an 18% increase in 2019, , Cyber Monday, the biggest online shopping day of the year, had a record high of $11,3 billion in online sales, 5,6% more than was spent on the day last year, Cyber Monday had sales increases of 19,3% and 19,7% in 2018 and 2019, respectively, .
S&P Global projects that total sales for the entire holiday season, including online and in stores, will grow 4.5% compared with the same period in 2021, in line with the average increases of the past 20 years. But when the current high inflation rate is factored in, that may translate to an actual decrease in spending in November and December, according to S&P.
The national inflation rate in October was 7.7%, the highest for the month since 1981, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Other sales projections are more optimistic than S&P's.
The National Retail Federation, a Washington, D.C.-based trade group, is forecasting that overall holiday sales will grow between 6% and 8%, to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion, compared with the same period last year.
The holiday retail season has started off strong at Farmingdale-based John’s Crazy Socks, whose Cyber Monday sales were up 32% as of 3 p.m. Monday, said Mark X. Cronin, who co-founded the online sock business with his son John, who has Down syndrome, in 2016. Black Friday sales rose 36%, he said.
The sales increases were due to slightly more orders, as well as larger orders and more paid per order because of raised prices to offset the business’ increased costs, Cronin said.
Cyber Monday is the biggest day of the year for John’s Crazy Socks, which generates more than 40% of its annual sales in November and December, he said.
“In many ways, what we sell is a luxury item but it’s an inexpensive item. And the other aspect is we’re a social enterprise, so people ... get value out of buying from us and they’re willing to spend more money with us because of that,” said Cronin, who said 22 of the company’s 34 permanent employees have disabilities.
Black Friday weekend continues to lose its grip on holiday season prominence.
High inflation, worries about a possible recession, and retailers offering discounts weeks earlier led more consumers to skip malls and shopping centers on Black Friday, retail experts said.
Online sales have hit some record highs since last week, with Cyber Monday spending hitting a new peak of $11.3 billion. But the annual percentage increases for online sales during the five-day period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday were the smallest on record, excluding some declines last year amid the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Adobe.
“There’s just so many dynamics right now. What’s been so surprising to us is how the consumer has continued to spend [in October]. If it turns out that Black Friday holiday shopping is meaningfully up, adjusted for inflation, that would be a really big surprise given the financial pressure and how much we’re seeing savings decline at this point,” said Sarah Wyeth, retail sector lead at S&P Global Ratings, a Manhattan-based financial analysis company.
What to know
- Black Friday foot traffic at malls, outlet malls and shopping centers fell compared to last year.
- Online sales for the weekend increased, but by a smaller percentage than in previous years.
- Inflation and recession worries may hold back overall holiday spending this year, analysts said.
The five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday are still regarded as an indicator for how retailers will fare over the whole holiday season — November and December — but the period continues to lose its significance.
Some of the decline in foot traffic in stores over the weekend was due to consumers having taken advantage of discounts retailers offered weeks before Black Friday to help clear high inventory levels.
“People have bought early. There were additional Prime days that Amazon put in. Target and Walmart did some special promotions to start to get shoppers shopping in October,” Wyeth said.
Foot traffic on Black Friday fell 2.3% at indoor malls, 3.9% at outlet malls and 0.5% at open-air shopping centers compared with the same day last year, according to Placer.ai, a Los Altos, California-based firm that analyzes location data from mobile devices.
Only two of eight business categories saw increases in foot traffic.
Beauty and spa businesses had the largest foot traffic increase, 14.6%, while discount and dollar stores had an increase of 1.1%, Placer.ai said.
Markdowns disappoint
Several shoppers at Roosevelt Field in Garden City said they expected there to be more doorbusters and other sales on Black Friday.
“[I saw] 30% off. I can get that any time of the year on Columbus Day or whatever. But I’m looking for more of the 50% off, the extra 20% off for coming early. I’m not seeing that this year,” said Karen Vallone, a Hauppauge resident shopping at the mall on Black Friday morning.
Shoppers at Roosevelt Field Mall in Garden City on Black Friday. Credit: Howard Schnapp
National data on in-store sales results for Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday is still rolling in.
One source, Mastercard SpendingPulse, said that in-store sales on Black Friday increased 12% compared with the same day last year, but the data is not adjusted for inflation.
Data on online spending shows ecommerce sales increases from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday were the smallest since Adobe began tracking the data in 2014, excluding some declines last year amid the pandemic, according to the San Jose, California-based software company, which does not adjust its sales data for inflation.
“We suspect it’s in large part due to early discounts pulling up [spending] that would have occurred around Cyber Week, as well as the uncertain economic environment as shoppers contend with elevated prices offline,” said Vivek Pandya, lead insights analyst at Adobe.
Breaking down the numbers
Here is how online shopping stacked up nationwide, Adobe said:
- Black Friday’s online sales totals rose 2.3% to a record $9.12 billion compared with the day last year. By comparison, online sales on Black Friday rose 23.6% in 2018 and 19.6% in 2019.
- Adobe’s Small Business Saturday data, which includes all sizes of businesses, showed an online sales increase of 2.6% to $4.59 billion. However, the same day had a 25.4% increase in online sales in 2018 and an 18% increase in 2019.
- Cyber Monday, the biggest online shopping day of the year, had a record high of $11.3 billion in online sales, 5.6% more than was spent on the day last year. Cyber Monday had sales increases of 19.3% and 19.7% in 2018 and 2019, respectively.
S&P Global projects that total sales for the entire holiday season, including online and in stores, will grow 4.5% compared with the same period in 2021, in line with the average increases of the past 20 years. But when the current high inflation rate is factored in, that may translate to an actual decrease in spending in November and December, according to S&P.
The national inflation rate in October was 7.7%, the highest for the month since 1981, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Other sales projections are more optimistic than S&P's.
The National Retail Federation, a Washington, D.C.-based trade group, is forecasting that overall holiday sales will grow between 6% and 8%, to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion, compared with the same period last year.
Biggest day of the year
The holiday retail season has started off strong at Farmingdale-based John’s Crazy Socks, whose Cyber Monday sales were up 32% as of 3 p.m. Monday, said Mark X. Cronin, who co-founded the online sock business with his son John, who has Down syndrome, in 2016. Black Friday sales rose 36%, he said.
Cara Hayman looks for socks as she helps fulfill customer orders at John's Crazy Socks in Farmingdale on Cyber Monday. Credit: Newsday/Alejandra Villa Loarca
The sales increases were due to slightly more orders, as well as larger orders and more paid per order because of raised prices to offset the business’ increased costs, Cronin said.
Cyber Monday is the biggest day of the year for John’s Crazy Socks, which generates more than 40% of its annual sales in November and December, he said.
“In many ways, what we sell is a luxury item but it’s an inexpensive item. And the other aspect is we’re a social enterprise, so people ... get value out of buying from us and they’re willing to spend more money with us because of that,” said Cronin, who said 22 of the company’s 34 permanent employees have disabilities.
Tory N. Parrish covers retail and small business for Newsday. She has worked at the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and Observer-Dispatch in Utica, N.Y.
