CA survey: Worst of world recession is over

The worst of the worldwide recession is over - at least, that's the outlook of a large number of foreign companies, according to a new report from one of Long Island's dominant info-tech companies.

Islandia-based computer software and services company CA Inc. reached that conclusion after surveying more than 900 of its business partners on three continents.

"The report is quite timely. We are starting to see an improvement in the market, and it's a positive sign that our partners are seeing it too," Sarah Vaughn, CA's communications vice president for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, said in an interview Monday from her London office.

However, Vaughn said, it would be a leap beyond the survey data to say whether the same optimistic outlook applied to the U.S. economy.

The survey, which was conducted in December and January, got responses from 928 companies, all of them resellers of CA's technology and services. It asked whether they anticipated an improved economy this year.

"Resellers across Europe, Middle East and Africa believe the worst of the recession is past and are looking forward to an upturn in 2010," said the new CA Inc. report, issued Monday, based on the survey.

This is a much more optimistic picture from the 2009 CA Channel Index when only 1 percent expected an economic improvement compared with 79 percent who thought it would worsen, the company said.

"According to the 2010 CA Channel Index . . . two thirds of respondents predict that the economic outlook will improve this year, compared with just 11 percent who think it will deteriorate," the report said.

The companies surveyed predicted a surge in information-technology budgets this year, with 43 percent expecting them to increase.

"When we reflect on the feedback from last year's index, it is clear that it was a tough period for some of our partners," said Jose Carvalho, the CA senior vice president for the European, Middle East and African markets. "This year there is a marked difference."

Enrico Spolaore, chairman of the economics department at Tufts University, took heart in that. "Often optimism by investors is self-fulfilling," he said after hearing of the report. "If enough people feel optimistic and invest, things do indeed turn up better because of that additional investment."