LI holiday travelers face flat to lower airfares

Travelers booking holiday season flights out of Kennedy and LaGuardia airports will find fares to domestic destinations about even with last year -- and those to international warm spots to the south 4 percent lower, an airline ticket processor says.

Round trips from New York's two major airports to domestic points will average $495.70, while those to Mexico and the Caribbean will average $667.99, according to figures developed for Newsday by Airlines Reporting Corp., based in Virginia. The figures are from the period shortly before Thanksgiving through Jan. 1, and include taxes and fees paid at the time of ticketing, though not at the airport or on planes.

The forecast for flat-to-lower fares, based on ticket sales so far, contrasts with the past couple of years. Last year's domestic fares out of Kennedy and LaGuardia for the holiday period were up by 3 percent over those for 2013, while fares to international points south were up 1 percent. In 2013, amid high fuel prices and soaring passenger demand, domestic fares rose by almost 12 percent from 2012, while international fares rose by almost 9 percent.

Airlines Reporting Corp. does not have data for fares at Long Island MacArthur Airport in Ronkonkoma.

Chuck Thackston, an executive at Airlines Reporting, says the main reason fares are flat or falling this year versus last is that airlines have added capacity, forcing them to compete harder to fill seats.

"Low fuel costs have given the airlines an opportunity to add some capacity," he said. "Plus the economic recovery has increased demand."

Through September, major U.S. carriers have added almost 4 percent to capacity, says Airlines for America, a trade group based in Washington.

Matthew Phillips, the Washington-based director of travel for AARP Services Inc., a subsidiary of the group, cautions that tickets bought for certain peak travel days, such as the days before Thanksgiving or Christmas, or very close to any travel dates, are apt to be more expensive than average. "I think it's obvious that the earlier you purchase, the better," he said. He said travel on the Sundays before Thanksgiving or Christmas should be less expensive.

Planes are apt to be just as crowded as last year during the holiday season; the major carriers have filled an average 83.9 percent of available seats this year through September, Airlines for America said. That's the same percentage as last year.

For the 12-day period before, during and after Thanksgiving on Nov. 26, the group forecasts a 3 percent increase from a year earlier in passengers globally on the 10 largest publicly traded U.S. airlines, or a total of 25.3 million passengers. That would be the most since 2007, when the last recession began.

"As competition continues to boost schedules and drive down airfares in 2015, customers are seeing more opportunities to fly during the holiday season," the group's chief economist, John Heimlich, said in a statement accompanying the Nov. 5 forecast. "Airlines are taking delivery of new, larger aircraft to accommodate the increase in passengers."

Airlines for America projects that the busiest days during the Thanksgiving period will be the Wednesday before the holiday and the Sunday after.