Retiring economist defines future of jobs on LI

Economist Gary Huth, who has analyzed the Long Island job market for the state Labor Department for nearly 24 years, is retiring Friday.

In an interview with Newsday business reporter Carrie Mason-Draffen, Huth, 66, offered his views on a wide range of issues, including changes to the Island's economy and the implications for businesses and job seekers. In the early 1970s,  Huth, who has a master's degree in social work and economics, worked as a community organizer in Manhattan.

How has the Long Island job market changed?
"The main change I see is that the job market is much more dynamic and complex and [requires] higher skills. So job seekers have to be more entrepreneurial and make sure that they keep up their skills. . . . Look at retail. How much stuff is being sold online and how much stuff is being sold in the store? And that's only a part of it . . .

"One of the things that I think is very underrecognized on Long Island is how Long Island transitioned from a defense-related [economy] into a diversified technology-based economy that it is today. We had a lot of small companies that had to do the same kind of thing. . . . constantly assessing their products, interfacing their products with their customer needs. All of that meant that if you were a job seeker, you had to mimic that. You had to say, 'Well, I've got to be entrepreneurial.' "

What are some strengths the Long Island economy can build on?
"One of the things I frequently say is that there was a Wireless Boulevard in Hauppauge long before people were using cell phones. It's kind of in the DNA of Long Island. When people think of the defense industry they think of aircraft production, but it was always electronics and instruments that were at least half of the defense structure [here]. Those instruments were radar surveillance, sensors, many of the things that today are driving dynamics in the economic growth."

What should be done to build on that foundation?
"While there are some key centralized ideas and things that you have to do to help your region, I think that there's a need to move away from some of those old models and just look at 'Well, how can we facilitate that kind of innovative activity on Long Island?' How could we recognize some of those technology areas that we have and expand them?' . . . I think you also find that there are areas that are not on the radar screen, so there's still a little too much of this kind of we-need-one-plan on Long Island.

"But basically that model of speaking with one voice from a political and economic planning point of view is a 20th-century concept. When Long Island went through its defense downsizing starting in the late '80s, that was what everyone thought: Who were we going to bring in? What big companies are we going to bring in to replace Northrop-Grumman?I'm always a little bit surprised how people don't recognize what the dynamics were that Long Island changed to. Long Island, I think, was probably one of the leading areas of the United States in terms of moving by necessity onto this more diversified technology model. So you do play to some of your strengths, but you basically don't pick winners and losers. You try to create conditions where they can thrive."

What industry or industries could lead the local economy out of the recession?
"It's interesting that across the country and to a certain extent here, even though its numbers are below a year ago, the industry actually that has done the quickest rebound is manufacturing. Health care modernization, in particular, I think [will play a big part]."

When do you see more robust job growth returning?"I expect us within two years to 21/2 years at the most to be back at our past employment levels . . . by next year maybe 12,000 to 14,000 [jobs] a year."