Study: Recouping lost jobs to take 2 years

A woman speaks with the representative from SCO Family of... — A woman speaks with the representative from SCO Family of Services located in Glen Cove. About a hundred employers from across the island set up stands inside the Cradle of Aviation in Uniondale for the Nassau County Job Fair. (June 8, 2011) Credit: Steve Pfost

By JAMES T. MADOREjames.madore@newsday.comJune 20, 2011

It will take another two years for Long Island and the rest of the New York metropolitan region to recoup all of the more than 385,000 jobs lost in the recession, according to a new report.

The U.S. Conference of Mayors Monday released a study showing the New York area will not return to its pre-recession employment peak until April-June 2013. During the 18-month downturn that ended in June 2009, area employment dropped 4.5 percent from its peak in the 30 counties, which include Nassau and Suffolk.

However, the 111-page report, from the IHS Global Insight research firm, states the New York region will recover jobs lost in the recession far quicker than many of the country's 363 city and suburban regions.

The average recovery rate nationwide is one year longer than New York's. And 37 places, including Atlantic City, N.J.; Detroit; Reno, Nev., Toledo, and Yuba City, Calif., will not reach their respective pre-recession peak employment until after 2021.

"New York is in the better half and frankly would recover a little bit earlier if not for the northern New Jersey counties, who are still suffering," said Jim Diffley, chief economist at Massachusetts-based IHS Global, which also does work for the New York State Senate and state comptroller.

Diffley and others acknowledged the frustration felt by many local job seekers given that the recession ended nearly two years ago. But Diffley said the economic slump here was less severe because Wall Street bonuses helped prop up consumer spending and home values. "The New York real-estate bubble and . . . burst wasn't as bad as in California, Arizona and other parts of the Sunbelt," he said.

In New York State, Ithaca recouped its recession job loss early last year and Rochester and the upper Hudson River Valley will do so next year. In 2013, Buffalo is expected to edge out the New York City area by a few months.

Upstate regions such as Albany, Binghamton, Elmira, Glens Falls and Utica will lag behind. Kingston will be the last region to regain its pre-recession employment peak -- in early 2018.

Citing the report's conclusion that some cities will experience a "lost decade" in terms of job creation, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, president of the mayors' conference, called for redirecting federal money from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq to building projects at home that will create jobs.

"It's time to bring our investments back home," he said in Baltimore, where the conference is meeting.

On Long Island, Glen Cove Mayor Ralph Suozzi, a conference member, said the report was "good news because it shows we're not as far behind as everyone else." He also said some of the business executives that he speaks with are "holding steady. . . . Everyone is kind of in a holding pattern," waiting for the economy to pick up.