Survey: Experts expect modest GDP growth

LOS ANGELES -- A new economic forecast calls for the U.S. economy to make some modest growth strides this year but not quite enough to significantly reduce the number of jobless Americans looking for work.

About two-thirds of the economists who participated in the latest National Association for Business Economics survey expect the nation's gross domestic product, or GDP, to grow at a rate above 2 percent this year, according to the outlook released Monday.

GDP reflects the economy's total output of goods and services. The latest forecast is in line with one issued by the group in November that called for the economy to grow 2.4 percent.

"That is not the sort of GDP growth that's really going to dramatically improve our labor market, but it's certainly not going to make it worse," said Nayantara Hensel, professor of industry and business at National Defense University and chair of the NABE survey.

GDP growth needs to be above 3 percent to significantly lower unemployment, which is at its lowest rate in nearly three years but remains at a troubling 8.5 percent.

The NABE economists previously forecast growth of 1.8 percent for all of 2011. Final GDP numbers for the last three months of 2011 are due out Friday.

The recent improvement in the unemployment rate, a pickup in retail sales during the holiday season, and hope that Congress will be able to reach a debt reduction deal are among the factors behind the rosier GDP outlook among better than 60 percent of the survey respondents. -- AP