They are cooks and dishwashers in Long Island’s restaurants. They are landscapers mowing lawns and planting flowers, construction workers fixing holes in the roof and setting beams for the next new house in the neighborhood. They are the home health aides tending to the elderly.

They are immigrants, some of them undocumented, who form the backbone of many of the region’s key industries, from healthcare and tourism to construction and small business.

Immigrants make up one-fourth of the 1.5 million workers who live in Nassau and Suffolk counties. Nine percent of the workers aren't U.S. citizens, among them green card holders, those with Temporary Protected Status to work in the United States, holders of work permits and those with no documents. The figures, which are from the Census Bureau's 2024 American Community Survey five-year data, include all nationalities.

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In the midst of President Donald Trump's mass deportation campaign, many immigrants are looking over their shoulder, fearing arrest, or have opted to leave the country already. For some, like those from Haiti, Honduras or El Salvador, their temporary protection has either run out or is in limbo.

But immigrants remain vital to the local economy, experts said.

Employees press cheese at a Bay Shore cheese manufacturing facility.

"Immigrant workers are very important to the Long Island economy," said John A. Rizzo, an economist and Stony Brook University professor.

They make up a large part of the workforce in seven industries that together represent nearly 35% of the region's annual economic output of more than $250 billion, based on federal data. Experts said deporting immigrants increases demand for the remaining workers, potentially leading to higher salaries and consumer prices.

"Many service sectors would be adversely affected by their departure, including home domestic services, landscaping, construction work and food services," Rizzo said. "This would lower the availability of these services while raising the cost, as deported immigrants would need to be replaced with workers who would require higher pay to do the same work."

Roughly 3,000 Long Islanders have been apprehended by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement as of Aug. 6, based on federal records analyzed by Newsday. That number would soar if White House border czar Tom Homan's "surge" of ICE activity in New York State were to extend to Nassau and Suffolk.

Stepped-up immigration enforcement would damage Long Island’s economy over the long term, said Mariano Torras, an economics professor at Adelphi University.

"There would be significant disruption costs" for both employees and employers, he said.

Torras, who co-authored two studies about immigrants’ economic contributions to the Island, said the negative impact of increased immigration enforcement won’t be isolated to economic sectors that are heavily dependent on immigrant labor.

"Immigrants are less well represented in some of the highest-skilled professions — but they’re there. They’re all over the economy, so the impact [of mass deportations] would be all over economy," he said.

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Some of the immigrants who now must leave the country have lived, and worked, on Long Island for decades. One 54-year-old man left Haiti in 1999. Since then, he's gotten married and raised three children here.

Until July 27, when he lost his Temporary Protected Status, the Rockville Centre resident said he worked two full-time jobs as an emergency room technician at a large hospital in Nassau and as a home health aide.

"I was doing everything they ask you to do," said the man, who requested that Newsday not identify him because he fears being deported. "I was paying my taxes. I was working. I was taking care of my family. And now, they say, 'We cannot keep you in this country.' "

The man said he was accepted into the TPS program in 2012 after his application for a green card was denied. TPS is the federal government program that allows immigrants to work in the United States if they are unable to safely return to their homeland.

The man now rarely leaves home, forgoing Mass and socializing with friends because he worries about being picked up by ICE agents. He estimated his savings will be exhausted in three months.

"By working and paying taxes you are helping the economy — but they will no longer let me do that," the man said.

Dependent on immigrant labor

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Economists identified seven industry sectors that are heavily dependent on immigrant labor and would be potentially hurt by mass deportations: hotels and food services, agriculture, construction, healthcare and social assistance, manufacturing, retail, and transportation and warehousing.

As a group, the sectors produced $88.2 billion in economic activity each year, on average, during the 2022-24 period. That’s more than one-third of Long Island’s gross domestic product of $257 billion, the sum of all goods and services produced in a given year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement representatives and supporters of Trump’s immigration crackdown said fewer immigrants in the workforce would create job opportunities for native-born and U.S. citizens.

"There is absolutely no data to support the fake proposition that removing criminals from Nassau County is hurting the economy. ... In fact, it’s quite the opposite," Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman told Newsday. He is the Republican candidate for governor in the November election.

Fewer than 5% of the immigrants held in the Nassau jail through Blakeman’s partnership with ICE between February 2025 and March 2026 were convicted of violent crimes, according to a Newsday analysis published in May.

Blakeman and others said more immigration enforcement would benefit U.S.-born residents, particularly men who are age 25 to 54, without a college degree and no longer actively looking for work.

That group numbers 246,675 in New York State, or 20% of the total number of such men, according to census data analyzed by the Center for Immigration Studies. The Washington, D.C.-based think tank sees economic benefits from heightened immigration enforcement.

"Immigrants are eager to work at current wages, so employers and policymakers don’t have to take steps, like raising wages and benefits and reforming welfare, to get U.S.-born men back in the workforce," said Steven A. Camarota, the center's research director. "There are negative social outcomes with people being out of the workforce, including crime, substance abuse, suicide, welfare dependency and political alienation."

Camarota added the immigration crackdown is "a great opportunity to work on this problem, which isn’t an easy one to solve. But employers and potential employees will only act if they believe the change [in immigration enforcement] is a permanent situation," he said.

So far, more ICE arrests have led to U.S.-born employees being thrown out of work rather than being offered jobs, according to a National Bureau of Economic Research report published in May.

Last year, one U.S.-born male worker without a college degree lost his job for every six undocumented male workers who left their jobs due to an ICE arrest or fear of being picked up. The job losses were concentrated in agriculture, construction and manufacturing, said Chloe N. East, co-author of the study and an economist at the University of Colorado at Boulder.

She said the economic sectors that are most reliant on immigrant labor are shrinking. In construction, for example, companies are responding to the shortage of workers by taking on fewer projects, which in turn reduces jobs for everybody, both U.S.-born and immigrant.

Here’s how sectors that represent a significant share of Long Island’s GDP are faring with more ICE arrests and the end of Temporary Protected Status.

A 96-year-old Suffolk resident receives care from an aide at his home.

Healthcare

There are more than 9,300 Long Islanders employed as home health aides — and 6 in 10 are immigrants, both documented and undocumented. Twenty-one percent of all aides are noncitizens, according to a Newsday analysis of the Census Bureau's 2024 American Community Survey five-year data.

"There’s always a shortage of home health aides, but this has increased it," said Nicole Laborde, CEO and founder of Ideal Home Care Services in Islandia, referring to the end of TPS for Haitian nationals.

Earlier this year, she had to let go 20 to 25 employees — all originally from Haiti — out of a total workforce of a little over 100 before it was known that their TPS would end on July 27.

"We care for vulnerable seniors and some of them are concerned," said Laborde, who came to the United States from Haiti more than 40 years ago. "The client gets used to their aide and now you’re having to tell them, ‘I’m sorry but we have to replace the aide’ without going into details. The client feels like they’re losing an extension of their family," she said.

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Employee overtime has increased since the layoffs to ensure Ideal's 200 clients are properly looked after. Employee recruitment efforts have increased, but Laborde said she’s been forced to turn away more client referrals than she would like.

"We’re trying to stay open," said Laborde, who also is a registered nurse. "It’s very challenging for us and our industry under these circumstances."

The July 27 end of TPS for nationals from Haiti and Syria, along with uncertainty about TPS for those from El Salvador, has home care agencies looking to hire more native-born and U.S. citizens, according to William Van Slyke, a spokesman for the Albany-based trade group Home Care Association of New York State.

Association members "have expressed growing concern about the impact of the nonrenewal of Temporary Protected Status. ... Any policy that results in workforce disruption will steepen the challenge of meeting our patients’ needs," he said.

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Hotels and food services

Workers stop for breakfast at Placita Deli in Westbury.

Mass deportations would remove 1 million workers from the nation’s restaurants, hotels and other tourism-related businesses, according to an estimate from the American Immigration Council, a pro-immigration trade group in Washington, D.C.

More than half of the Long Islanders who work as restaurant cooks are immigrants, and more than 3 in 10 of all cooks aren't U.S. citizens, based on census data analyzed by Newsday.

"If you were to eliminate undocumented workers from this industry, it would collapse," said Scott Wexler, executive director of the Empire State Restaurant & Tavern Association in Albany, which has about 2,000 members statewide, including 300 on Long Island.

"Undocumented workers are the backbone of a restaurant. They’re the runners, the bus people, the dishwashers," he said. "Replacing them would be damn difficult because people born in this country don’t want the jobs that immigrants are doing."

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Wexler and others said without sufficient help to clear tables for waiting diners, a restaurant will have less revenue and suffer a reputation loss.

Restaurants, together with hotels, wineries, amusement parks, museums and beaches, make up Long Island’s multibillion-dollar tourism industry.

The industry employed more than 80,000 people last year, or about 5% of the jobs in Nassau and Suffolk, and generated $8.4 billion in consumer spending, according to a report last month from the research firm Tourism Economics in Wayne, Pennsylvania.

Sharon Wyman, CEO and president of the Hauppauge-based Discover Long Island, which promotes Suffolk attractions, said restaurants, hotels and farms are grappling with the uncertainty caused by increased immigration enforcement. "A healthy tourism economy depends on businesses having the workforce needed to operate successfully," she said.

Construction

In hopes of getting picked up for jobs, day laborers gather at a gas station in Farmingville.

Nationally, more than 1 in 3 construction companies have been negatively affected by the immigration crackdown, from ICE agents visiting job sites and the resulting spike in worker absenteeism to subcontractors being unable to fulfill orders because of a shortage of employees, according to a survey of 951 companies conducted late last year by the trade group Associated General Contractors of America in Arlington, Virginia.

Nearly 103,000 Long Islanders work in construction, putting up houses, factories, offices and warehouses. Thirty-four percent are immigrants and 19% aren't U.S. citizens, the Newsday analysis shows.

Homebuilders in Nassau and Suffolk have had their job sites visited by ICE agents looking for immigrants without legal status. After each visit, the contractor's employees don't show up for a couple of days out of fear of being arrested, according to Mike Florio, CEO of the Long Island Builders Institute, a Melville-based group of home builders.

"There’ve been isolated cases that have been moderately disruptive to the project that was going on," he said, referring to large apartment projects.

Florio called immigrants an "essential" part of the home construction workforce on Long Island. Immigrants represent nearly 60% of laborers and 41% of carpenters. More than 4 in 10 laborers and 2 in 10 carpenters aren't U.S. citizens, based on Newsday's analysis of census data.

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"For small companies, in particular, it’s become more difficult to find labor — and the available applicant pool understands that and is demanding increases in salary and benefits," Florio said.

Earlier this year, the builders' institute held a workshop for contractors on how to prepare for a potential ICE raid, including the collection of I-9 Employee Eligibility Verification forms and other documents proving an employee is eligible to work in the United States.

Florio said Gina Farese, CEO of Marcor Construction Inc. and Marcor Solar Inc., both in West Babylon, was a driving force behind the seminar.

Her companies specialize in roofing, siding and windows along with the installation and maintenance of solar energy systems. They have 100 or so employees.

Employers "need to get educated" on how to comply with the law, Farese said, pointing to a thick binder on her desk filled with I-9 forms for Marcor staff members. "I'd love to have another workshop."

Once contractors win a job, Farese said, they face great difficulty in securing the employees needed to complete the work. "Industrywide, people are having a very hard time finding legitimate labor," she said.

Small business

Sashary Nieto at her small business, the Mineola Nutrition Center.

More than 98% of Long Island’s nearly 99,500 businesses are small, employing fewer than 100 people. Thirty-four percent of the business owners who live in Nassau are immigrants, and 22% in Suffolk, according to the Newsday analysis of Census data.

Small retailers, service firms and eateries dot most Main Streets — and some are struggling as fear of ICE arrests keep customers at home in Brentwood, Central Islip, Mineola, Riverhead, Valley Stream and other communities with large immigrant populations.

Mixed families, where some members are documented and some are not, "often limit travel, shopping and public activities during periods of heightened immigration enforcement," said Dina H. Refki, executive director of the Institute on Immigration Integration Research & Policy at SUNY’s Rockefeller Institute of Government in Albany.

As a result, she said, "small businesses are likely to face labor shortages, reduced consumer spending, operational disruptions and increased uncertainty."

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In Mineola, ICE made 253 arrests between Jan. 1, 2025 and Aug. 6 this year, according to data provided by ICE in response to a public records request from the University of California's Deportation Data Project. Newsday analyzed the data.

"Every single time ICE was here, my business was down," said Sashary Nieto, the owner and sole employee of Mineola Nutrition Center Corp., which is located on Mineola Boulevard one block south of Jericho Turnpike.

"My community is scared," Nieto said, adding that she’s a first-generation American whose parents are from Ecuador.

Her store’s Hispanic customers, which she estimated number between 500 and 1,000, spend more and visit more frequently than customers from other backgrounds. The store sells protein shakes, energy drinks and nutritional supplements.

"They [Hispanic customers] are coming in a little bit less and that’s affected me because they buy a lot more," said Nieto, adding sales are down about 10%, but she still hopes to report her first yearly profit in 2027.

To recoup the lost sales, Nieto plans to hold more in-store events, including holiday parties for Christmas and New Year’s. "They will bring in more customers who will order shakes," she said.

A national study by the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School found that foot traffic near small, independent retailers, such as Mineola Nutrition Center, fell more than 4% per week after an ICE arrest and spending dropped by nearly 11%. That compares with declines of less than 1% in foot traffic and 5% in spending for large, national chain stores.

Professor Exequiel "Zeke" Hernandez, the study's author, said he looked at the economic effects of 5,388 ICE actions nationwide as of February. "The declines didn't dissipate over time and all ethnic groups were impacted," he said.

In Suffolk, Spanish-speaking entrepreneurs aren’t attending workshops in how to start and run a business.

"I’m having a hard time getting people from immigrant populations to even come for our services," said Daphne M. Gordon, director of the Entrepreneurial Assistance Center at Suffolk County Community College’s Brentwood campus. "They are afraid that ICE will pick them up."

Manufacturing

Nelson Hernandez and his wife, Maria Isabel Ramos, run a cheese processor in Bay Shore.

More than 78,400 Long Islanders work in manufacturing, turning out everything from prescription drugs, vitamins and medical devices to food and components for fighter jets, submarines and tanks. Nearly 4 in 10 of the workers are immigrants and nearly 2 in 10 aren't U.S. citizens, according to the Newsday analysis.

Trump’s deportation campaign coincides with a pronounced shortage of factory employees caused by baby boomers retiring and younger generations pursuing white-collar careers.

"Workforce supply has long been the defining challenge for Long Island manufacturing. ... Any additional drain on the regional labor pool compounds the problem," said Jamie Moore, president of Ignite Long Island, a trade group representing 3,500 companies that together generate $30 billion in economic activity a year.

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The impact of increased immigration enforcement has been heaviest on those that make drugs, vitamins, food and beverages. Some will likely move more of their production activity to the South, where workers are more plentiful, predicted Thomas A. Cook, CEO and managing director of the international trade consulting firm Blue Tiger International in East Moriches.

"They’re going to start losing people" in entry-level production, shipping, receiving and warehousing jobs, he said. "These people aren’t easily replaced because white Americans just aren’t interested in these jobs."

At cheese processor Nelson & Isa Lácteos LLC in Bay Shore, orders often drop after ICE arrests occur near the delis, convenience stores and supermarkets that it supplies.

"ICE is targeting the ones that will consume our cheese," said Nelson Hernández, who started the company eight years ago with his wife, Maria Isabel Ramos. "But we haven’t only been impacted [in terms of sales], we’ve also become a victim of the system."

About a month ago, one of Hernández’s production employees was deported to his native El Salvador.

"Ricky knew what he was doing," Hernández said, referring to the 18-year-old. "Replacing him, training someone new isn’t easy."

The deportation also traumatized the workforce, which totals about 15 employees. "It’s sad that he’s no longer with us," said Hernández, who is originally from El Salvador.

The company specializes in Central American cheeses, offering about a half-dozen types, including queso poroso and poroso con chile — both of which are made on-site. The company also sells nuts and honey to about 300 stores locally and in New England, Florida, Ohio and Virginia.

Hernández said the manufacturer's future is dependent on the duration of the immigration crackdown.

"If we cannot support the business because of the issues we are facing, we will have to close," he said. "We will survive as much as we can."

Newsday's Anastasia Valeeva contributed to this story.

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