Cost of Thanksgiving dinner down slightly from last year's record high, Farm Bureau says

There will be something for your pocketbook to be thankful for if you’re shopping for food for a Thanksgiving dinner. The cost will be down from last year, though the meal will still reflect historically high prices, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s 38th annual survey that gives a snapshot of the average cost of a holiday feast for 10.

The meal will cost $61.17 — a decrease from 2022’s record-breaking average of $64.05, but still 25% higher than it was in 2019, due to the impact of high supply costs and inflation on food prices since before the pandemic.

You can thank your turkey for helping to bring down the cost of the meal. The average price for a 16-pound bird is $27.35 — that’s $1.71 per pound, down 5.6% from last year.

The shopping list for the survey includes turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls with butter, peas, cranberries, a veggie tray, and pumpkin pies with whipped cream — all in quantities sufficient to serve a family of 10 with lots of leftovers.

Pricing information was gathered for the Farm Bureau by “volunteer shoppers” who checked prices Nov. 1-6, before most grocery store chains started offering whole frozen turkeys at sharply reduced prices.  The average per-pound price dropped further during the second week of November, the Farm Bureau said, citing data from the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service. Consumers may find additional savings in the days leading up to Thanksgiving, the survey released Wednesday said.

“Traditionally, the turkey is the most expensive item on the Thanksgiving dinner table,” the Farm Bureau’s senior economist, Veronica Nigh, said in comments released with the survey. “Turkey prices have fallen thanks to a sharp reduction in cases of avian influenza, which have allowed production to increase in time for the holiday.”

In recognition of changes in Thanksgiving dinner traditions, the price survey also includes boneless ham, russet potatoes and frozen beans in an expanded menu. Adding these foods to the classic menu increases the overall cost by $23.58, to $84.75.

This year’s national average cost was calculated using 245 surveys with pricing data from all 50 states and Puerto Rico, with Farm Bureau volunteer shoppers checking prices in person and online using grocery store apps and websites. They sought out the best possible prices without using special promotional coupons or purchase deals.

The survey found regional differences in the cost of the classic meal, with the Northeast being the highest at $64.38. It was most affordable in the Midwest,  at $58.66, followed by the South, at $59.10.

And there was more good news coming from the Thanksgiving dinner table yesterday. Mintec, an independent provider of global commodity price data, price forecasts and market intelligence, said its 2023 Thanksgiving Dinner Index was down 21%.   

The company said its “main meal index," including meat, vegetables, bread and nuts, showed a 24.6% year-over-year drop, countering the record-high values seen in October of the previous year.

“Noteworthy factors contributing to this decline include a substantial reduction in Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza cases during the spring and summer, alleviating supply concerns and causing a sharp year-over-year decline in U.S. turkey prices in October,” Mintec said in an emailed statement to Newsday. “U.S potato prices also fell by over half year-over-year, thanks to increased planting areas and improved yields.”

There was good news for bread costs too.

“The bread index registered an astounding 57% year-over-year decrease, attributed to the easing of geopolitical fears surrounding global wheat supply,” the statement added. “This positive development follows the grain corridor deal, allowing Ukraine to boost wheat exports, after a year of severe restrictions due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.”

The news for a Thanksgiving dessert favorite, however, wasn’t so sweet.

Mintec’s dessert index, representing the classic southern pecan pie, grew by 11.2% year-over-year. "This increase is attributed to surging sugar prices, exacerbated by India’s decision to extend its ban on sugar exports to boost domestic supply,” the statement said.