Number of employed Long Islanders fell last month; unemployment rate at 2.5%

Long Island’s number of employed residents fell significantly last month even as the region continues to see low unemployment rates, state data shows.

The number of employed Islanders in November shrank by 22,800 to 1.48 million, a month-over-month change that was much higher than the typical loss of 1,700 employed residents normally seen for the month, according to state Labor Department data released Tuesday.

At the same time, the Island’s labor force — the sum of all employed and unemployed residents looking for work — declined by 19,200, suggesting that the majority of those who lost jobs last month were not actively looking for work.

The sharp decline could be a statistical anomaly, said Shital Patel, labor market analyst with the Labor Department’s Hicksville office.

“This decline doesn’t really line up with what we’re seeing,” Patel said. Certain factors, like the region’s low unemployment rate, which hit 2.5% last month, as well as the total number of employed — 1.48 million, a record for the month of November — stand in contrast to the steep month-to-month decline. October's 2.2% rate was a record low.

“We haven’t had a noticeable uptick in the number of WARN filings or initial claims for unemployment insurance on Long Island,” Patel said.

Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification, or WARN, filings are state notices in which companies with at least 50 full-time employees are required to file a notice of a mass layoffs or a closing 90 days in advance.

Patel said it’s hard to pinpoint why there was such a large drop in the number of employed Islanders but suggested that the decrease might actually be a decline that typically occurs earlier in the year but was delayed.

“If you look back a few months ago, we didn’t see the decline in the number of employed and the overall labor force that we usually do at the end of the summer when seasonal hires stop working,” Patel said.

In a typical year, Long Island sees the number of employed fall by around 18,300 each September. This year that number instead grew by 5,000.

“For some reason this year, the usual decline of seasonal workers happened in November instead of August and September,” Patel said.

John Rizzo, economist and Stony Brook University professor, said it’s a plausible explanation, adding that employers may have opted to hold onto summer seasonal workers longer than normal.

“The labor market is very tight,” he said. “It’s plausible that employers wanted to retain workers for longer.”

As business conditions became a little more unpredictable with the effects of the federal interest rate increases, he said those employers may have decided to let go of those workers last month.