Big rise in metro-area consumer confidence

A new survey indicates that consumer confidence surged in January.... — A new survey indicates that consumer confidence surged in January. This past month, customers at Smith Haven Dodge Chrysler were buying up the new Jeep line, from left, the Liberty, the Wrangler and the Grand Cherokee. (Jan. 9, 2012) Credit: John Dunn

By JAMES T. MADOREjames.madore@newsday.comFebruary 1, 2012

Consumer confidence in the metropolitan area surged last month, repeating a similar boost of optimism seen in early 2011.

The Siena College Research Institute reported Wednesday that its confidence index for Long Island, New York City and its northern suburbs rose to 78.2 in January, a jump of 10.4 points from a month earlier.

January's reading also was the first in 11 months to be above 75, the level in the Siena index indicating the number of people bullish about their future exceeds those who are pessimistic. In January 2011, the confidence index for the metropolitan area was 80.9.

Separately, Siena reported that the share of residents statewide who plan to buy a car or truck in the next six months was 13.3 percent in January, the highest in four years.

"Every group of New Yorkers and every area of the state are now more confident than they have been since the brief bubble of hope we saw last January," said Siena pollster Douglas Lonnstrom. Last year, the confidence index plunged in February and then declined gradually in summer and fall.

Statewide, the index climbed 7.5 points to 74.8 last month. In December, it also rose, month-over-month, for the metropolitan area and statewide.

Area residents reported feeling more optimistic about their financial well-being in the near and long term. The long-term reading soared 13.6 points to 82.7.

Still, Lonnstrom and others warned this optimism could be undercut by continued high unemployment and the housing crisis. "New York appears poised for a more robust year," Lonnstrom said. But "we still have the three 'no's': no jobs, no spending and no home-buying. Unless we resolve those no's, the bubble may again burst" as it did in 2011.

Retailers closely follow consumer confidence because it often signals the willingness of shoppers to open their wallets. Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of economic activity nationally.

The buying plans of residents statewide are mixed. When asked about big-ticket purchases in the next six months, consumers told Siena they were more likely to buy automobiles, computers or start a major home-improvement project. However, fewer people expect to buy furniture or a home.

On the Long Beach boardwalk Wednesday, some consumers said they felt better about the local economy but aren't ready to go on a spending spree.

"My son just got a job after being unemployed for about a year, so things are looking up," said Lynne Reynolds, a retiree from Rockville Centre. "I think things are improving for Long Island."