Fewer jobless claims, more hiring in August
Job seekers wait in line at a construction job fair in Manhattan late this past month. The U.S.Labor Department said applications for unemployment insurance declined to a seasonally adjusted 365,000. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, ticked up to 371,250. (Aug. 21, 2012) Credit: AP
The jobs outlook in the United States brightened a bit Thursday just before President Barack Obama was to make his case for re-election to the American people.
Fewer people applied for unemployment benefits last week, the government reported. And companies boosted hiring in August, according to a private survey.
A far more consequential report politically -- the government's unemployment and hiring figures for August -- will come out today, just as the presidential race enters its stretch run. Jobs are the core issue in the race, and that report could sway some undecided voters.
There will be two additional employment reports before Election Day. But by then, more Americans will have made up their minds.
"It's the most important economic data point we have between now and Election Day," said Tony Fratto, a White House spokesman under President George W. Bush.
Thursday's government data on the job market exceeded economists' expectations. Weekly applications for unemployment benefits fell 12,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 365,000. And ADP, a payroll provider, estimated companies added 201,000 jobs last month, the most since March.
Today's jobs data are unlikely to signal significant improvement in the economy. Economists' consensus forecast is that employers added 135,000 jobs last month, according to a survey by FactSet. That's below July's gain of 163,000 and probably not enough to bring down the unemployment rate, forecast to remain at 8.3 percent.
That would let Republican nominee Mitt Romney point to 43 straight months in which unemployment has exceeded 8 percent.
At the same time, Friday's report will almost surely mark a 30th straight month of private-sector job gains, a point Obama and his allies are certain to spotlight.
"The president's supporters will say, 'See, it's improving,' and the supporters of Gov. Romney will say, 'See, it's not improving fast enough,' " said Robert Shapiro, an economist and former trade official under President Bill Clinton.
