Golden Globes 2026: Our critic picks who should win, will win

Can the Golden Globes bring some shine to a somewhat tarnished movie year?

By any measure, 2025 was not one of Hollywood’s brightest moments. On the commercial side, the domestic box office take inched up just 1% over the year before for a total of $8.74 billion, according to comScore. On the artistic side, the year’s two most ambitious movies, Paul Thomas Anderson’s political satire "One Battle After Another" and Josh Safdie’s eccentric character study "Marty Supreme," were impressive but felt skippable. (Has anyone told you they’re must-sees? Didn’t think so.) On the existential side, one A-list project after another, from Julia Roberts in "After the Hunt" to Dwayne Johnson in "The Smashing Machine," failed to catch fire. Even the Sydney Sweeney boxing biopic "Christy" notched one of the lowest opening weekends of all time.

The good news: A number of surprise hits proved viewers will still turn out for the right movie. "Sinners," a vampire-western starring Michael B. Jordan (as twins!), became a critical smash and a $368 million hit in the usually sleepy month of April. "Weapons," a character-driven horror film with an exceptional cast (Josh Brolin, Julia Garner, Amy Madigan), did much the same during the last slow weeks of summer. And although "KPop Demon Hunters" barely played in theaters, it scored an impressive $24 million over just a few weeks even while streaming on Netflix and becoming a cultural sensation.

At this year’s Golden Globes on Sunday night, expect the semivenerable awards show to grapple with all these issues. Broadcast on CBS at 8 p.m. and hosted by second-timer Nikki Glaser, the Globes will most likely give its biggest awards to some safe choices ("One Battle After Another") while acknowledging the year’s unexpected successes ("Sinners"). One or two acting awards could go to overseas figures like Wagner Moura, of Brazil’s "The Secret Agent," in a sign of Hollywood’s waning hegemony. And once again we’ll watch the race for cinematic and box office achievement, an award so pandering and meaningless that it’s starting to look like an insult.

Here's our prediction for Sunday night’s Golden Globes:

BEST MOTION PICTURE — DRAMA

"Frankenstein"

"Hamnet"

"It Was Just an Accident"

"The Secret Agent"

"Sentimental Value"

"Sinners"

WHO SHOULD WIN "Frankenstein." Guillermo del Toro’s horror film is not a remake of the 1931 classic monster-movie but a faithful adaptation of Mary Shelley’s 1818 novel. That means plenty of Romantic histrionics, Gothic gloom and the kind of ravishing visuals del Toro does so well.

WHO WILL WIN "Sinners," Ryan Coogler’s equally deserving horror-Western-musical. If this one-of-a-kind film does indeed win ("Hamnet" could edge it out), the Oscar conversation will change overnight.

BEST MOTION PICTURE — MUSICAL OR COMEDY

"Blue Moon"

"Bugonia"

"Marty Supreme"

"No Other Choice"

"Nouvelle Vague"

"One Battle After Another"

SHOULD WIN "Marty Supreme." It’s hyperkinetic, hugely entertaining and unpredictable, with several oddball touches (why would a 1950s period piece feature songs by Tears for Fears?) and a supercharged performance by Timothée Chalamet.

WILL WIN "One Battle After Another." It's the year’s consensus masterpiece, a 21st century "Dr. Strangelove" blending political satire with general wackiness.

BEST FEMALE ACTOR — DRAMA

Jessie Buckley, "Hamnet"

Jennifer Lawrence, "Die My Love"

Renate Reinsve, "Sentimental Value"

Julia Roberts, "After the Hunt"

Tessa Thompson, "Hedda"

Eva Victor, "Sorry, Baby"

SHOULD WIN Buckley. Her performance in the film’s final 10 minutes alone — wave after wave of wordless emotion — would be enough to earn this award.

WILL WIN Buckley.

BEST MALE ACTOR — DRAMA

Joel Edgerton, "Train Dreams"

Oscar Isaac, "Frankenstein"

Dwayne Johnson, "The Smashing Machine"

Michael B. Jordan, "Sinners"

Wagner Moura, "The Secret Agent"

Jeremy Allen White, "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere"

SHOULD WIN Isaac, who perfectly encapsulates the 19th century arrogance, bravado and self-pity of Victor Frankenstein. It’s an underrated performance in an underrated film.

WILL WIN Moura, who earned an acting award at Cannes for his performance as a Brazilian political refugee. Don’t be surprised if Jordan steals this one, though.

BEST FEMALE ACTOR — MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Rose Byrne, "If I Had Legs I’d Kick You"

Cynthia Erivo, "Wicked: For Good"

Kate Hudson, "Song Sung Blue"

Chase Infiniti, "One Battle After Another"

Amanda Seyfried, "The Testament of Ann Lee"

Emma Stone, "Bugonia"

SHOULD WIN Stone. As a CEO captured by two wackos who think she’s an alien, she stays impressively deadpan (Stone-faced?) throughout this increasingly bizarre comedy.

WILL WIN Byrne. Few saw this low-budget psychological horror film (it made only $1.3 million), but some of those few belong to the National Board of Review, New York Film Critics Circle and Los Angeles Film Critics Association, where Byrne has come away with awards.

BEST ACTOR — MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Timothée Chalamet, "Marty Supreme"

George Clooney, "Jay Kelly"

Leonardo DiCaprio, "One Battle After Another"

Ethan Hawke, "Blue Moon"

Lee Byung-Hun, "No Other Choice"

Jesse Plemons, "Bugonia"

SHOULD WIN Chalamet. His hard-charging, laser-focused, borderline sociopathic table tennis champ Marty Mauser is really something to behold. His closest competition is DiCaprio, whose zonked-out revolutionary Bob Ferguson is also thoroughly enjoyable.

WILL WIN Chalamet.

BEST FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Emily Blunt, "The Smashing Machine"

Elle Fanning, "Sentimental Value"

Ariana Grande, "Wicked: For Good"

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, "Sentimental Value"

Amy Madigan, "Weapons"

Teyana Taylor, "One Battle After Another"

SHOULD WIN Madigan. As Aunt Gladys, she’s one of the ghastliest villains to hit a screen in years — possibly up there with Tim Curry’s Pennywise, Dennis Hopper’s Frank Booth and Anthony Hopkins’ Hannibal Lecter.

WILL WIN Taylor. The role of Perfidia Beverly Hills has a cool factor — a Black woman whose life of revolutionary terrorism and kinky sex leaves no room for motherhood — and Taylor plays it with aplomb.

BEST MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Benicio Del Toro, "One Battle After Another"

Jacob Elordi, "Frankenstein"

Paul Mescal, "Hamnet"

Sean Penn, "One Battle After Another"

Adam Sandler, "Jay Kelly"

Stellan Skarsgård, "Sentimental Value"

SHOULD WIN Penn, who steals the show as the uptight miliary pervert Steven J. Lockjaw (yes, seriously). He’s both preposterous and believable — not an easy feat.

WILL WIN Del Toro. His Sergio St. Carlos, the laid-back yet gun-toting protector of California’s migrant population, is an appealing fantasy figure no matter what your politics. Keep an eye, though, on Skarsgård, who might walk away with this award.

BEST DIRECTOR

Paul Thomas Anderson, "One Battle After Another"

Ryan Coogler, "Sinners"

Guillermo Del Toro, "Frankenstein"

Jafar Panahi, "It Was Just An Accident"

Joachim Trier, "Sentimental Value"

Chloé Zhao, "Hamnet"

SHOULD WIN Del Toro. From the larger-than-life performances to the opulent-looking sets, "Frankenstein" was one of this year’s most fully realized films.

WILL WIN Anderson. Critics dug the writer-director’s political outlook and Pynchon-inspired humor, and he has already won at the National Board of Review and the Critics Choice Awards.

CINEMATIC AND BOX OFFICE ACHIEVEMENT

"Avatar: Fire and Ash"

"F1”

"KPop Demon Hunters"

"Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning"

"Sinners"

"Weapons"

"Wicked: For Good"

"Zootopia 2”

SHOULD WIN "F1," the snazzy race-car drama with Brad Pitt. It made a ton of money, it was pretty good and it definitely wasn’t art. Isn’t that the criteria for this award?

WILL WIN "Wicked: For Good," if only because the first "Wicked" won last year.

BEST MOTION PICTURE — ANIMATED

"Arco"

"Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba Infinity Castle"

"Elio"

"KPop Demon Hunters"

"Little Amélie or The Character Of Rain"

"Zootopia 2”

SHOULD WIN "KPop Demon Hunters." There’s a reason this Sony-Netflix production became one of the biggest hits of 2025, and it isn’t just the catchy soundtrack. It’s the underlying theme of emotional strength. Disney, you’ve got competition.

WILL WIN "KPop Demon Hunters."

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

"Dream As One" from "Avatar: Fire and Ash"

"Golden" from "KPop Demon Hunters"

"I Lied to You" from "Sinners"

"No Place Like Home" from "Wicked: For Good"

"The Girl in the Bubble" from "Wicked: For Good"

"Train Dreams" from "Train Dreams"

SHOULD WIN "Golden" from "KPop Demon Hunters." It’s exactly what this category was made for: a pop confection with a finger on the zeitgeist. Also, it was a No. 1 hit in the United States and around the world.

WILL WIN "Golden."