Oscars 2026: Our critic picks who should win, will win

Newsday film critic Rafer Guzmán shares his predictions for this years Oscar's.

By Rafer Guzmánrafer.guzman@newsday.comUpdated March 12, 2026 5:55 am

Could this year’s Oscars actually be worth watching?

If you’ve been treating the Academy Awards as might-see TV for the last several years, consider tuning in (7 p.m., ABC/7, streaming on Hulu). One reason is second-time host Conan O’Brien, a genial presence who also happens to be in one of the nominated films ("If I Had Legs I’d Kick You"). Another is a record-setting 16 nominations for "Sinners," a leftfield vampire movie that will go head-to-head with this year’s critical heavyweight, Paul Thomas Anderson’s "One Battle After Another." Finally, at a time when the legendary studio Warner Bros. is up on the auction block, this Oscar ceremony may feel like a referendum on the movies themselves.

Here are our predictions in the major Oscar categories:

BEST PICTURE

Mia Goth, left, as Elizabeth and Jacob Elordi as The... — Mia Goth, left, as Elizabeth and Jacob Elordi as The Creature in "Frankenstein." Credit: Netflix/Ken Woroner

"Bugonia"

"F1"

"Frankenstein"

"Hamnet"

"Marty Supreme"

"One Battle After Another"

"The Secret Agent"

"Sentimental Value"

"Sinners"

"Train Dreams"

WHO SHOULD WIN "Frankenstein." It’s an idiosyncratic choice that few would agree with. But for my money it’s the most beautiful, ghastly and evocative film on this list.

WHO WILL WIN "One Battle After Another." Thanks partly to the aura of Anderson, this became the movie everyone needed to see and form an opinion about. It’s also a highly original and ambitious project. All of that spells hope for the movies, and this Oscar will be given in thanks.

ACTOR

Michael B. Jordan as Stack, in “Sinners.” Credit: Warner Bros. Pictures

Timothée Chalamet, "Marty Supreme"

Leonardo DiCaprio, "One Battle After Another"

Ethan Hawke, "Blue Moon"

Michael B. Jordan, "Sinners"

Wagner Moura, "The Secret Agent"

SHOULD WIN Chalamet. There aren’t many actors who could convincingly play a sociopathic wannabe table tennis champion — and make you like him.

WILL WIN Jordan. Awards-season types may be underestimating the love for Jordan, who won the Actors Award in a stunning upset earlier this month.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sean Penn as Steve Lockjaw in "One Battle After Another." Credit: AP/Uncredited

Benicio Del Toro, "One Battle After Another"

Jacob Elordi, "Frankenstein"

Delroy Lindo, "Sinners"

Sean Penn, "One Battle After Another"

Stellan Skarsgård, "Sentimental Value"

SHOULD WIN Penn. He’s been somewhat absent from the big screen lately but returns in a big way as Col. Steven J. Lockjaw, an All-American soldier with a closet full of kinks. The role is both satirical and empathetic, and Penn navigates it perfectly.

WILL WIN Penn.

ACTRESS

Jessie Buckley stars as Agnes in "Hamnet." Credit: Focus Features/Agata Grzybowska

Jessie Buckley, "Hamnet"

Rose Byrne, "If I Had Legs I'd Kick You"

Kate Hudson, "Song Sung Blue"

Renate Reinsve, "Sentimental Value"

Emma Stone, "Bugonia"

SHOULD WIN Buckley. As the wife of William Shakespeare and the mother of their deceased little boy, she conveys not just overwhelming grief but love, hope and wonder, too.

WILL WIN Buckley.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Teyana Taylor as Perfidia in “One Battle After Another.” Credit: Warner Bros. Pictures

Elle Fanning, "Sentimental Value"

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, "Sentimental Value"

Amy Madigan, "Weapons"

Wunmi Mosaku, "Sinners"

Teyana Taylor, "One Battle after Another"

SHOULD WIN Madigan. A frequent on-screen presence during the 1980s and 1990s, Madigan seemed to fade from view for a while until returning with a vengeance as Aunt Gladys, the witchy villain of Zach Cregger’s singular horror film. It’s the kind of only-in-Hollywood story that Oscar voters love.

WILL WIN Hmmm ... On the one hand, Taylor won the Golden Globe in this category and has been very visible this season with appearances on "Saturday Night Live" and "The Late Show with Stephen Colbert." Then again, Madigan recently won the all-important Actors Award, virtually guaranteeing her the Oscar.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Wagner Moura in a scene from "The Secret Agent." Credit: AP

"The Secret Agent," Brazil

"It Was Just an Accident," France

"Sentimental Value," Norway

"Sirāt," Spain

"The Voice of Hind Rajab," Tunisia

SHOULD WIN "The Secret Agent," which brings the Brazil of the 1970s back to life in all its warmth, vibrancy, corruption and violence. Its star, Wagner Moura — the first Brazilian to win a Golden Globe for leading actor in a drama — is a revelation.

WILL WIN "The Secret Agent."

DIRECTOR

Chloé Zhao, "Hamnet"

Josh Safdie, "Marty Supreme"

Paul Thomas Anderson, "One Battle After Another"

Joachim Trier, "Sentimental Value"

Ryan Coogler, "Sinners"

SHOULD WIN Safdie. Since Guillermo del Toro, of "Frankenstein," isn't on this list, my vote passes to the young director who created such a vivid, lived-in world for "Marty Supreme." Safdie also got one of the year’s best performances out of Kevin O’Leary, the guy from "Shark Tank."

WILL WIN Anderson. Like Christopher Nolan, Anderson is a genius-in-residence of cinema and his projects are always received with awe. That’s a hard-earned status that Coogler, his closest competition here, hasn’t earned just yet.