Oscar predictions 2016: Which movie will win best picture?
TOM HARDY as Max Rockatansky in Warner Bros. Pictures' and Village Roadshow Pictures' action adventure "MAD MAX: FURY ROAD" directed by George Miller. In theaters on May 5, 2015 . Photo Credit: Jasin Boland/Warner Bros. Pictures and Village Roadshow Credit: Warner Bros. Pictures/Village Ro / Jasin Boland
If you asked the pundits three months ago what would win best picture, the popular answer would have been “Spotlight,” the story of The Boston Globe reporters who broke the child-abuse scandal within the Catholic Church. If you asked the pundits one month ago, you’d hear many leaning toward “The Big Short,” Adam McKay’s fact-based comedy-drama about the financial meltdown. Ask the pundits today, and you’ll hear a whole different film outpacing the others. Here’s how the best picture nominees stack up at the moment.
ROOM. Look for Brie Larson, who plays a woman kidnapped and impregnated by a neighborhood sicko, to win the best actress award. Best Picture, however, is probably too much for this smaller-scale film to hope for.
THE MARTIAN. This sci-fi survival film became a box-office monster with $620 million worldwide, and a critical hit to boot. The fact that director Ridley Scott was not nominated, though, suggests that “The Martian” will get left out in the cold.
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD. Here’s the year’s least likely success story, an outrageously violent car-chase film with 10 Oscar nominations. Fans of pulp cinema around the world are rooting for it (and for directing nominee George Miller), but “Mad Max” probably won’t take home the top Oscar.
BROOKLYN. This drama about Irish immigrants in America after World War II hasn’t become a major contender, which seems a little inexplicable. It’s a lovely movie that received overwhelmingly positive reviews and earned Saoirse Ronan many festival and critics’ awards.
SPOTLIGHT. It ain’t over ’til it’s over for this excellent drama about real-life journalists, but there’s no doubt that the winds of change have shifted against it. At this point, the film’s best hope is in the original screenplay category, where it’s the odd-on favorite according to Internet bookmakers.
THE REVENANT. How did Alejandro Iñárritu’s intense survival film — gory, brutal and bleak — become the top contender for best picture? The answer seems to be Iñárritu’s back-to-back awards from the Directors Guild of America, last year for “Birdman” and now for “The Revenant.” That marked a first in the guild’s 69-year history. If you’re placing bets on Oscar Sunday, here’s where the safe money is.
BRIDGE OF SPIES. Tom Hanks stars, Steven Spielberg directs and the Coen brothers helped write. It’s no wonder this Cold War drama got a nomination, but the film’s respectful-enough reviews and general lack of traction suggest a win is out of reach.
THE BIG SHORT. Adam McKay’s movie about Wall Street outsiders who placed big bets on the financial meltdown is an odd duck — half drama, half satire. Reviews were strong, but it was that Producers Guild award that sent the movie toward the front of the Oscar pack.
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