Dubstep, 'Idol' and more sure bets for '12

The Mayans may be right -- at least about the major-label dominance of the music industry.

By the end of 2012, there will likely only be three major labels left standing -- Sony; Warner Bros., which found a new owner last year, and, if regulators agree, a new, even-larger Universal, after it takes over EMI. Yes, since the music industry's peak in 2000, half of the major labels have gone out of business and album sales have dropped 61 percent.

Will music's remaining Big Three make it out of 2012 alive? Probably. (Even statements like that have to be hedged, considering how it would have been unthinkable 20 years ago to imagine that EMI, the home of The Beatles, would cease being a major label.)

But even if they do survive, their futures continue to be uncertain and that throws the rest of the industry -- both financially and artistically -- off balance.

However, there are still some things we are sure about for 2012:

THE CLOUD With Apple, Google and Amazon all set to mount massive campaigns to get you to put all your digital music in "The Cloud" for access on your computers, tablets and smart phones, this will be the year Internet music storage goes mainstream. If you don't have enough music of your own, there are always the streaming services Spotify, Rhapsody, MOG, Rdio and others.

DUBSTEP Between the chart-topping success of Rihanna's "We Found Love," the critical love for James Blake and the surprising Grammy nominations for Skrillex, dubstep is already firmly entrenched on this side of the Atlantic. This will just be the year that most of America finds out what the dance music subgenre is called.

'IDOL' vs. 'THE VOICE' "American Idol" and "The Voice" had pretty good runs last year -- both even more impressive following the trainwreck-like debut of "The X Factor." However, TV fans' shrinking attention spans really can't handle two singing competitions simultaneously, can they? And with "The Voice's" various twists on the format, along with a more likable panel of judges, it could be time for a new champion.

'TELL ALL YOUR FRIENDS' -- 10 YEARS LATER There will be lots of reminiscing as people celebrate the 10th anniversary of Taking Back Sunday's debut album. Though it arrived on March 26, 2002, its impact wasn't felt until that fall, when the "Long Island Sound," a mix of emo, pop and punk, was taking hold across America and record labels of all sizes were scooping up nearly every Long Island band around in hopes of landing the next TBS or Brand New. Ah, good times.

KENNY CHESNEY AND TIM MCGRAW The biggest tour of 2012 is nearly guaranteed to be "Brothers of the Sun," the summer stadium outing of country's biggest stars, their first tour together since 2002. "He's one of my closest friends in music and in life," Chesney said in a statement. "I know this tour is going to be something special." They arrive at MetLife Stadium Aug. 11.

THE OLYMPICS The summer Olympics in London may have one of the most ambitious musical soundtracks ever. Underworld is composing music for the opening ceremonies, which are being produced by "Slumdog Millionaire" director Danny Boyle. Elbow is composing the soundtrack that the BBC will use during the Olympics, while Amy Winehouse collaborator Mark Ronson is working on a single, reportedly with Katy B, that will be used by Coca-Cola to promote the Games.

ESCAPE 2 NEW YORK 2 The successful debut of the ambitious music festival in Southampton is set to return this year with bigger stars, grander public art projects and even more science lectures. As long as they keep the same fun, communal vibe (and the Shinnecock food stands selling Indian tacos), organizers will likely see another hit.

HAIR METAL Come on! We're not gonna take it! No, we ain't gonna take it! Watch for interest in hair metal in all its guises, including the Twisted Sister classics, to get teased to '80s-like heights thanks to the Broadway musical-turned-Tom-Cruise-starring movie "Rock of Ages."

LONG ISLAND MUSIC HALL OF FAME Though the Port Jefferson-based museum isn't expected to open its doors this year, it is hoping to induct its fourth class of artists. The move will likely continue to keep the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, which considered L.I. Music Hall of Famers Joan Jett and Eric B. & Rakim last year, playing catch-up.

MICHAEL JACKSON: THE IMMORTAL WORLD TOUR Cirque du Soleil's spin on the music of Michael Jackson is expected to hit as many artistic and commercial peaks as "Love," its high-flying take on the music of The Beatles. The show will tour the country in 2012, including stops at Madison Square Garden from April 3-5 and Nassau Coliseum on April 7-8, before laying down roots in Las Vegas.