On Theater: 19 shows will be out in the cold

It feels awfully early - autumnal, even - to start measuring the winter chill on Broadway.

But here we are in the kickoff weekend for the big holidays of an unusually busy and ambitious season, and we're already counting the number of theaters that will be dark during the tundra times of January and February.

This early in the shakedown, there are already 19 announced closings - four more than last January.

Some musicals and plays are dying of natural causes after relatively long, comparatively healthy lives. By Jan. 2, farewells will be said to "West Side Story," "Fela!" and "Promises, Promises." Jan. 9 is closing day for "In the Heights" and "A Little Night Music." Then on Jan. 16, "Next to Normal" joins history.

More alarming, however, is the impending carnage from the new fall openings.

The first disappointment must be "A Life in the Theatre," starring Patrick Stewart and T.R. Knight, which closes this weekend instead of Jan. 2, as scheduled. Jeffrey Richards, lead producer of David Mamet's 1977 love letter to actors, sounds a bit shell-shocked by the box-office rejection of what I found to be a moving and entertaining revival.

Richards, who also produced the Broadway transfers of the Public Theater's "Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson" and Al Pacino in "The Merchant of Venice," suggests one problem might have been the importance of "title recognition" - less pleasantly known as branding - especially in a season with such a rare jam-up of straight plays. "I joked with David about changing the title to something sexier," says Richards, adding that he is "very proud of this production" but that some people confused it with a documentary.

But Richards' real question involves the number of plays a musical-oriented Broadway audience will support, even with stars. Of the 18 openings in the fall season, 13 have been nonmusicals, many of which are offbeat and adventurous.

Even an outlandishly spectacular performance by Mark Rylance and the wattage of David Hyde Pierce could not keep "La Bête," David Hirson's high-styled 17th century spoof, from announcing a Jan. 9 closing - a month earlier than scheduled. The producers say they fear "the historically challenging weeks" in early winter. "Elling," the odd but charming comedy that opened Nov. 21 starring Brendan Fraser and Denis O'Hare, is closing already Sunday night after a range of appreciative and negative reviews.

Charlotte St. Martin, executive director of The Broadway League, is understandably protective of the industry image. "The seasonal aspect of our business is similar to the last few years and the history of our industry," she says. Of the announced closings for December through February, she notes that 11 have been limited runs.

Indeed, some of the new shows were announced as limited runs and will close as scheduled: Jan. 2 for "The Pee-wee Herman Show" and the Christmas show "Elf"; Jan. 9 for "Colin Quinn: Long Story Short" and The Beatles' show "Rain." "Time Stands Still," starring Laura Linney, has been extended a week beyond its original Jan. 23 date, with a possibility of recasting for an extension.

Also, as St. Martin notes, nonprofit theaters have expanded on Broadway and these have a scheduled number of subscription slots that make extensions difficult. ("Mrs. Warren's Profession" closes Sunday, "Brief Encounter" ends Jan. 2 and "The Pitmen Painters," Jan. 9.) The Lincoln Center Theater's two enormously ambitious new productions will not live beyond their scheduled closing dates: Jan. 9 for "A Free Man of Color," Jan. 23 for "Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown."

At this writing, the only two hits swirling with rumors of possible extensions are "Driving Miss Daisy," starring Vanessa Redgrave and James Earl Jones (scheduled to close Jan. 29), and "The Merchant of Venice," with Al Pacino as Shylock (Jan. 9). And I stress, upon pain of professional shunning, that these are only rumors.

"January and February are going to be very tough," says Richards, picturing all the dark marquees on 45th Street, one of Broadway's busiest blocks.

And yet . . . "Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark" might just brighten up the gloom, if it finally opens, as now planned, Jan. 11.

And things get crazy-busy with new plays again by March. When I say crazy-busy, I mean Robin Williams playing a jungle cat/narrator in "Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo," Frances McDormand as a Boston woman on the skids in David Lindsay Abaire's "Good People," Chris Rock as part of an ensemble cast in a Stephen Adly Guirgis play with an unprintable title and "War Horse," the Lincoln Center Theater's import of a massive and much-loved English spectacle/drama about World War I and one boy's horse.

New musicals include "Catch Me If You Can," an adaptation of the 2002 caper movie with the creative team behind "Hairspray"; the Australian adaptation of "Priscilla Queen of the Desert" and the British adaptation of "Sister Act" (co-produced by Whoopi Goldberg). Not everything used to be a movie. "The Book of Mormon" is an original musical by the wonderful troublemakers of "South Park," and Donna Murphy stars in "The People in the Picture," about a former star of the Yiddish theater.

Daniel Radcliffe - yes, the actor formerly known as Harry Potter - returns to Broadway in a revival of "How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying," also starring John Larroquette. And Sutton Foster and Joel Grey co-star in a revival of "Anything Goes." In a springtime short on play revivals, Edie Falco and Ben Stiller will star in John Guare's "The House of Blue Leaves," and Brian Bedford directs and stars in "The Importance of Being Earnest."

Meanwhile, the tourists will vanish, shows will die and Broadway will shiver with stage doors slamming shut. And then, if we're lucky, the cycle begins all over again.