The plays are the things at the Tonys

I don't care who wins many of the Tony Awards Sunday night, but don't get the wrong idea. Indifference has nothing to do with it.

For the first time in my conscious lifetime, there are so many deserving new plays that, really, I'll be fine with any of them as winners. And I'll hurt for all the quality losers. The same goes for the directors of plays, play revivals and actors -- both leading and featured -- in plays. (Actresses are another story. More on that in a minute.)

Although the most headlines of the season went to the catastrophes of "Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark" (which finally opens Tuesday) as well as to the unprintably naughty and irreverent musical delights of "The Book of Mormon," the potentially revolutionary news is happening in the theaters where nobody sings and dances.

PLAYS -- TOO GOOD TO CHOOSE?

In fact, there have been so many provocative, adventurous new plays that there isn't room in the four-play category for one of the season's best -- "Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo."

"War Horse," "Good People," "Jerusalem" and "The -- -- With the Hat" offer a vast range of engaging, challenging theater. But so does this deliriously original, horrifying and even funny Iraq War tragedy by young playwright Rajiv Joseph. Robin Williams, who is terrific as the ghost of a dead tiger, didn't get nominated, either.

STARS -- AND STAR BACKLASH?

But this is not another story about snubs. It is, however, worth noting how many of the snubs this year were executed on brand names considered essential to nailing Broadway its record $1.08 billion gross (up 5.9 percent) this season, according to the Broadway League's figures. The list of the illustrious-ignored includes Daniel Radcliffe, Chris Rock, Ben Stiller, Kiefer Sutherland, Jim Belushi and Robert Sean Leonard.

Around Broadway, the not- so-whispered explanation is star backlash. After Catherine Zeta-Jones, Scarlett Johansson and Denzel Washington won the big acting awards last year, actor Hunter Foster ("Urinetown") started a Facebook group called Give the Tonys Back to Broadway!! According to an article in the trade newspaper Back Stage titled "Did Daniel Radcliffe Steal Your Job?," the group now has almost 9,000 members.

And most of the stars will be presenters this year, including Radcliffe, graciously handing out Tonys and pretending nobody cares about being ignored by the nominators.

MUSICALS -- SO LONG, ROCK AND ROLL?

I also am not on edge about the best musical category, but, this time, not because of all the quality contenders. In contrast to the play nominees, where I'd be happy to see any one or all rewarded, there is only one musical -- "The Book of Mormon" -- that's a serious contender in most eligible categories. This is fine, too. The show by Trey Parker and Matt Stone, those heat-seeking rascals of "South Park," and Robert Lopez of "Avenue Q," is both a wildly original musical and an outsiders' love letter to musical theater.

But remember last year, when the big news, besides stars, was the takeover by rock musicals? So much for the useful brilliance of trend-spotting.

Last year at this time, all four nominees ("American Idiot," "Memphis," "Million Dollar Quartet," "Fela!") were original or recycled real rock. This had some producers exalting that Broadway finally opened up to cutting-edge youth music, while others mourned the death of the mainstream American musical.

And this year? How many rock musicals are nominated? None. Despite the envelope-pushing subject and language, "The Book of Mormon" music is solidly -- even lovingly -- in the Broadway tradition. "Catch Me If You Can" is middle-of-the-road early '60s pastiche.

The closest to pop is probably Alan Menken's happy disco, '70s Philadelphia sound and Barry White-infused soul in "Sister Act," which fits comfortably in the conventions of Broadway ersatz-rock. And "The Scottsboro Boys," which failed to find an audience but snared a surprising 12 nominations, has a score by John Kander and Fred Ebb, who died in 2004 -- artists who actually helped create the real Broadway tradition.

SPRING FEVER -- ANYBODY REMEMBER AUTUMN?

"Scottsboro" is the major exception to another of this year's realities. This show opened (and closed) before the massive March-April blitz, which crammed 13 high-profile openings into the final three weeks before the Tony cutoff April 28.

Producers tend to be paranoid about opening in the fall, believing that the nominators won't remember shows that are, you know, so last year. How right those producers were this time.

The nominators tossed a bone here and there to fall openings -- the book for "Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson," the score and two actresses from "Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown," and Vanessa Redgrave but nothing else for the exquisite revival of "Driving Miss Daisy."

The only real reminders that Broadway even had an autumn are the seven nominations for "The Merchant of Venice."

Mostly, I'm shocked at how little I'm hearing about the Tony chances for Al Pacino's harrowing, beautifully restrained Shylock, Lily Rabe's Portia and the rest of Daniel Sullivan's hauntingly lucid production of "Merchant."

MAGNIFICENT ACTING -- BUT WHY THE MEN'S CLUB?

It has been an extraordinary year for actors -- in plays, musicals, leading roles and supporting ones. For example, before the nominations were announced, the Tony's website listed the names of 24 eligible leading actors in a play and 11 for leading actors in a musical.

Not so wonderful is that only seven lead actresses were listed as eligible in plays and six in musicals. This does not mean that more actors than actresses were good this year. It means that many more male-dominated plays were produced.

Since women buy most of the theater tickets, it is odd that Broadway -- with its attendance up almost 6 percent, and galloping grosses -- employs so few. Better luck next year, if luck has anything to do with it.

Linda Winer's Tony picks

Play

SHOULD WIN "War Horse"

WILL WIN "War Horse"

Musical

SHOULD WIN "The Book of Mormon"

WILL WIN "The Book of Mormon"

Revival, play

SHOULD WIN "The Merchant of Venice"

WILL WIN "The Normal Heart"

Revival, musical

SHOULD WIN "How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying"

WILL WIN "Anything Goes"

Actor, play

SHOULD WIN Al Pacino, "The Merchant of Venice"

WILL WIN Mark Rylance, "Jerusalem"

Actress, play

SHOULD WIN Frances McDormand, "Good People"

WILL WIN Frances McDormand, "Good People"

Actor, musical

SHOULD WIN Tony Sheldon, "Priscilla Queen of the Desert"

WILL WIN Norbert Leo Butz, "Catch Me If You Can"

Actress, musical

SHOULD WIN Sutton Foster, "Anything Goes"

WILL WIN Sutton Foster, "Anything Goes"

Direction, play

SHOULD WIN Marianne Elliott and Tom Morris, "War Horse"

WILL WIN Joel Grey and George C. Wolfe, "The Normal Heart"

Direction, musical

SHOULD WIN Casey Nicholaw and Trey Parker, "The Book of Mormon"

WILL WIN Nicholaw and Parker

Choreography

SHOULD WIN Susan Stroman, "The Scottsboro Boys"

WILL WIN Kathleen Marshall, "Anything Goes"

Score

SHOULD WIN "The Book of Mormon"

WILL WIN "The Scottsboro Boys"

Featured actor, play

SHOULD WIN Yul Vazquez "The ---- With the Hat"

WILL WIN Vazquez

Featured actress, play

SHOULD WIN Ellen Barkin, "The Normal Heart"

WILL WIN Barkin

Featured actor, musical

SHOULD WIN John Larroquette, "How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying"

WILL WIN Larroquette

Featured actress, musical

SHOULD WIN Laura Benanti, "Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown"

WILL WIN Benanti